Impatient Investor30 Jul 2024 13:01
A Zeus research note dated 19th July states the following: Revenues Q1 £3m, Q2 £1.6m (known), Q3 looking for £5.5m and Q4 £7.4m. These are challenging numbers. Pre-production engineering revenue of £1.7m is going to be reflected in H2 so it may be split between Q3 and Q4. If production has doubled since the beginning of June and is continuing, and, say £850k is recognized in both Q3 and Q4, output of £4.65m in Q3 and £6.5m in Q4 would necessitate c.£1.5m pcm Q3, improving to £2-£2.2m pcm in Q4. Getting those sums out of debtors, if that is the case, and into the bank will be key.
Scrappage of 25% means production capacity of over £20m minimum has to already be available to meet the year-end number of £17.5m, which is no longer part of a range but a target. Bundred repeatedly said that £20 capacity is already available and it’s the basis for the brokers’ models so meeting the numbers needs either headroom on capacity and / or a significant reduction in scrappage. Zeus is using 17% in Q3 and 14% by year-end.
Bundred was taken aback by the volley of questions about scrappage, asking where they had come from and saying, ‘Thank god this is my last meeting!’. To which we can only agree.
Year-end cash of £3m is forecast but I noted that until she was pressed swiftly by someone else present at the AGM, Isabelle Maddox initially said ‘£2-3m’ before emphasising £3m so there was some doubt in her demeanour and the final cash number may land towards the lower of that range.
Time passes slowly as an investor when you want updates and more clarity. From the AGM, the search for a replacement Chairman is down to two candidates with an announcement ‘hopefully’ by the end of Q3 and then we’ll be waiting for the interim results and a TU.