RE: Doomberg v CurrieToday 20:24
1) Falling Chinese oil imports shield global market from higher prices : https://www.ft.com/content/ef6f00c5-4f2d-4fd3-a6cc-f65081bb1248
2) Trafigura warns oil at ‘inflection point’ : Trafigura warned markets against complacency, with chief economist Saad Rahim arguing that the world had largely run through its “buffers” of fuel inventories and now stood “at an inflection point”. "The factors that have contained prices so far — elevated inventories, floating cargoes, co-ordinated SPR [strategic petroleum reserve] releases, a shoulder season, and demand destruction across Asia and Africa — have bought the market time, but are not a solution,” Rahim wrote in the report. He pointed to low US petrol inventories as a particular concern, noting that these inventories are being drawn down at a record pace. https://www.ft.com/content/6e357d8a-d370-4501-beef-fa2445f3a557
3) Donald Trump’s Iran war drains US oil stocks to lowest level since 2004
Industry warns prices could soon jump as inventories reach ‘critically low’ threshold
Donald Trump’s Iran war has driven US oil stocks to their lowest level in two decades as his administration drains stockpiles to contain surging prices and exporters capitalise on the drop in Middle Eastern supply.
US government data published on Wednesday showed total stocks of crude and petroleum products such as petrol fell by 10.6mn barrels last week to 1.57bn barrels — the lowest level since 2004.
The sharp fall triggered new warnings from industry analysts that oil prices are poised to move sharply higher again within weeks.
“The US is acting like the lender of last resort for global oil markets, acting as a stabiliser and providing a buffer to offset Middle Eastern supply loss,” said Edward Hayden-Briffett, analyst at The Officials, a division of Onyx Capital Group.
But he warned the US’s ability to absorb the global oil shock was finite, pointing to increased releases from the nation’s strategic petroleum reserve — which was also tapped by Joe Biden’s administration to push down prices.
“As that buffer decreases, it becomes a stressor rather than a reassurance,” said Hayden-Briffett.
Matt Smith, an analyst at Kpler, said: “The US is the supplier of last resort and is better positioned than pretty much every other country in the world given its large refining capacity and domestic production.”
“But what this means is US inventories are being drawn down to critically low levels . . . This means US prices must rise enough to slow exports and inventory drawdowns. When US exports slow, the music stops: buyers have very few other alternative suppliers to turn to.”
https://www.ft.com/content/d0be73c8-b8d8-4ffd-874e-e97a6ecffef7
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