Colin's article as requested23 Aug 2023 15:25
Seeing Machines has published its latest quarterly #KPIs for cars on road. To 30 June 2023, the cumulative total is 1,086,176 units. Seeing Machines is the second DMS supplier to pass one million cars on road, after Smart Eye, and the race is now on as to which supplier reaches two million vehicles first.
Seeing Machines' delivery growth is sudden. In only the 12 months to 30 June 2023, 638,951 units were added, or about 60% of the cumulative total number. In the 24 months to 30 June 2023, it was 956,442 or about 90% of the cumulative total. Its success in the automotive sector has essentially happened in just the last two years.
Future growth is on course to be just as dramatic. The company hit 150,000 units delivered in a quarter for the first time only in the Jan-Mar quarter (173,802 units) and then promptly passed 200,000 units delivered in the Apr-Jun quarter (211,325 units). By providing quarterly data, its growth path can be analyzed. The conclusion is that after many years of R&D, Seeing Machines is now delivering on its promises.
Cars on road is a more robust metric to assess market leadership than "design-wins," which can easily be gamed by definitions. Further ambiguity is added to design-win totals by the existence of dual optical path systems, to cover the driver (#DMS) and the wider cabin (#OMS). Two different suppliers can legitimately claim the same vehicle model as a win (which has happened with BMW), or one supplier can claim two "wins" if they secure both the DMS and OMS nomination. The trend is clearly towards a single optical path combining both DMS and OMS, and some existing awards will be junked and never reach start of production #SoP. Thus, design-win totals are meaningless beyond scoring PR victories.
The three leading #automotive #technology suppliers (Seeing Machines, Smart Eye, and Cipia) are all independent, publicly listed small companies having to survive in a world of >5% interest rates and a rapidly rising cost of money. Vital is a path to profitability, matched with significant investment in a continued #innovation #roadmap to ensure technology leadership for the next ten years. Threading that needle will be extremely challenging, and not all three suppliers will make it. Profit centers beyond automotive will likely be the main differentiators to survival, underscoring the importance of strategies in the #fleet and #aviation sectors.
You'll have to pick your own survivors in this market. Capitalism is brutal, but cash is always king. Companies do not die because they make a loss. They die because they run out of money.