Member Info for Mitch984

I agree wholeheartedly with atg and kcaco here. Zioc will pay off greatly for all holders willing to be patient over the next five years. It could even pay off to a slightly lesser extent earlier than that if the right factors come together.

In the meantime, I for one like hearing of developments, however rampish, alongside a more realistic opinion on those developments.

However I am a firm believer on AIM, that if you want a share to rise on news, that news has to get out there to new small investors. And boards like this along with Twitter play a big part in that. Yes, its ramping to an extent, but it is often the only way to create justified excitement in a share on AIM, where there is little or no mainstream coverage.

Hi Extrader,

I don't think Haworth has any involvement in Zioc any longer. After he resigned as a Director, I think he disposed of the shares he held through Salamanca. That was my understanding anyway.

It doesn't negate your point though, despite the attacks.

As regards today's fluctuating share price, I have a feeling we will see a large delayed sale show through tomorrow - otherwise today's highs would have been maintained. Until there is no large holder willing to sell if there are buys to fill, we won't see a significant share price rise unfortunately.

"they may only have 0.1% but if they do that with a load of companies then they are printing money"

I agree on this, but the point I was trying to make earlier is that the only reason we even know about it in relation to PMO is that 0.1% movement keep crossing Goldman through a full % point, so they have to file a TR1.

If, for example, their dealing instead changed their holding from 6.1% to 6.2%, they would not have to file.

In other words, there could be other large institutional holders who are trading in exactly the same way as Goldman, but we don't know about it because they don't cross a full % point and therefore don't have to file.

That's why I feel too much is being read into the Goldman TR1s.

Why do posters think Goldman Sachs are manipulating the share price?

The only reason they are filing so many TR1s is that their holding keeps crossing the 6% mark, both just above it and just below it.

Disclosure rules mean they have to file a TR1 every time their holding croses a full percentage point, so if they go from 5.9% to 6.1% they have to file. If they then go from 6.1% back to 5.9%, again they have to file.

If you look back at all their TR1s, their holding has always been around 6%. Their holding changing by 0.1% is hardly manipulation, is basically insignificant, and is most likely caused solely by their day-to-day tradning.

Hi Extrader,

Interesting research - many thanks.

Yes, you are quite correct. The previous Artemis disposal was from the Hardwick Trust holding. This acquisition (if that it was it is) is on behalf of the Ark Trust.

The "Ark Trust" name does ring a bell from somewhere, but until my fogged brains pins down from where, I can't be sure it relates to Zioc.

I've had Leganes at 5.99% for just over a year, but can't remember what they were at in 2017. I know Salamanca disposed of their 4.81% soon after Haworth resigned as a director, and they were purchased by private investor Higgins in January. But I'm not at all sure what happened to the Leganes shares above 5.99%.

At the end of the day, I guess the only shareholdings above 3% that we will ever be able to pin down exactly are those held by private investors. Anything held by trusts we will probably never know. Although a TR1 is supposed to show the ultimate beneficial owner, having a trust seems to get around that.

This is a strange one.

Leganes have sold out, and they, according to the TR1, are ultimately owned by Kulczyk Investments S.A. - " a private equity firm specializing in restructuring of companies and assets. The firm seeks to invest in oil & gas, mineral resources, infrastructure, power generation, and power and gas distribution, trading, energy, and real estate."

The shares have been bought by/ transferred to PKC Capital Ltd (Guernsey), who are ultimately controlled by "ARTEMIS TRUSTEES LIMITED AS TRUSTEE OF THE ARK TRUST" according to the TR1.

But Artemis sold out their holding last year, so I'm puzzled why they would buy in again. Very strange.

It does make one wonder if there are a lot of very closely connected parties amongst the major shareholders.

Probably one for Extrader to research in more depth - I unfortunately have no time to do that at present.

To sell, they need a buyer. There has not been any third party interest in Zioc, as confirmed a while back by AT to several people.

That may change once all permits are in place and a definite route to market is operational. However, will Glencore ever want to let this go to what will be a direct competitor?

"You don't really think it's that simple to wipe out shareholders when you have an alternative option?"

Coldspy - it happened at FlyBe, and it will most likely happen here. Shareholders are at the very bottom of the list in the current climate - a board's legal obligation to it's shareholders just seems to go out the window.

The fund raising in Q2 will be for the next year's operating costs, not for any Capex.

After that, Capex will not be raised through a dilution in my view, but rather through a third party offtake agreement. However before then, I think they have a cheaper small production project in mind.

Previous placings have I think been around the 11p mark, but I stand to be corrected on that.

I take Extrader's point somewhat. However I didn't post to generate a discussion about the accuracy of the NPV - even though the figures were taken direct from the March RNS. Any NPV is a guess-stimate, especially this one as the update did not revise previous stage 1/2 capex figures.

I just felt with all the recent negativity about the share price fall, that we needed reminding about the huge potential here. I certainly needed it!

AT's interview is excellent and the more the potential of Zioc reaches a wider audience, the better. Which is again why it is good to see the possible NPV figures mentioned on here occasionally.

Lets stop knocking this project and get back to reminding casual visitors to this board that things are moving, albeit slower than we would like. We shouldn't downgrade and pick to pieces every news report that comes out of the country for example. Yes, some of the associated Twitter research goes a little over the top - but it is a sign that things are moving outside of the company itself.

I think the risk of dilution has always been present, so I don't think its the cause of the tanking.

As mentioned before, there is a huge seller at present whoi is still selling - and will to sell at any price, even at a big loss.

I'm sure KP2 know who it is, but they are claiming that the seller has never held more than 3% and therefore does not have to file a TR1. To be honest, with the volume of sales this past 6-7 weeks, I don't buy that at all.

But what can you do.

The potential of KP2 is still huge, but my trust in the company has declined since the selling started.

Posted by our friend over on Twitter, but worthy of a reminder to all with the current depressed share price.

Quote;-

The NPVs in #ZIOC's March RNS were v. conservative, using 2014 CapEx and OpEx estimates, both of which are known to be lower.

Even so, with 66%Fe now at $110/t, they give a NPV of $2,085bn for Stage 1 and $3,943bn for Stage 1+2.

Actual finance and development news should see the SP rapidly factor in these NPVs. Stage 1 of $2,085bn equates to an SP of £5.60 Stage 1+2 of $3,943bn equates to an SP of £10.60 The SP sits at a hugely discounted 8.50p - demonstrating quantum upside valuation potential.

Unquote

I realise the statement is a bit ramp-ish, but it certainly helps remind me why I'm holding this share! However I'm not at all sure we will see a big re-rate until there are actually shovels in the ground.

I agree that the potential is huge, but we have had a very large (supposedly distressed) seller who for the past 6 weeks has been willing to sell at any price.

That started the downward share price spiral, which wasn't helped by the recent update that made it clear we were 4-6 years away from being anywhere near full development and that there will be a Q2 fund raising (which was always expected).

AIM investors don't do patience, and of course hate the thought of any possible dilution. However without the big seller, I think we would still be 6p+. Which is around where we should be.

Excellent interview. Let's hope this is the beginning of a much wider and consistent PR effort by Zioc. AT knows his stuff and comes over well.

We need to move out from being totally under the radar!

Hi Sooty,

They did mention for the first time in the end of year update an onsite pellet plant for the EPP. That made it pretty clear to me that the EPP would take at least two years of construction to get underway - but I agree Zioc could have given us far more clarity, even at that stage.

I just hope that, following the IP, the company release information on a regular basis throughout 2019/2020 - and not sink into the shareholder inaction mode that has been too common in 2018/19.

We are all sick of third party dot joining, but Zioc is now at a stage where we should not have to rely on that. There should be plenty of information and updates that will be worthy of being passed on to the market both this year and next, and Zioc should feel an obligation to its shareholders to keep the market updated.

I suppose their short term excuse will be that until Jumelles give the go-ahead for an EPP, there will be nothing extra to report. But surely, after 18 months of testing and gathering information on a possible EPP, the submission to Jumelles should be imminent. Let's hope so anyway.

Overall though, I agree with Sooty. This is not a dead certainty purely because of the 4-6 year timescale before the port would be ready and because this is Africa. It still should payoff though for very patient holders.

I honestly wasn't expecting a share price rise. There was no buying excitement leading up to today, and all the blatant ramping (other than on Twitter) has long gone - especially the talk of a takeover.

It was always going to be two years for an EPP to get underway. An announcement of funding and a firm timetable on that will see us probably get back to 20p. But its going to need a definite port go-ahead to de-risk Stage One for us to see a fair value on our holding.

Once the EPP is underway and/or the port is confirmed, we will be ripe for a buyout - if Glencore will allow it. If not, we should see a share price in the 25-50p range.

But this is AIM - and the two words that scare off investors are "years" and "funding". Yes there are long term holders on AIM, but its the short termers looking for a quick profit that create excitement and cause the price to rise. We haven't had that excitement since the licence granting and then the strong (but false) port rumours that a go-ahead was imminent.

Absolutely agree allthatguff.

We have had a persistent seller for many months. On these low volumes we won't see any significant rise in the share price until he stops selling.

If he/she/it still has a large amount of shares to sell, the share price reaction to a positive IP next Thursday will still be muted - as he/she/it will be a willing seller to any new buyers that pile in.

Very weird goings on. A million share trade yesterday and a 600,000 trade, both showing as Sells.

If they were sells, it doesn't look like it relates to either of the two large Private Investors as they both bought their original holdings at or above the current price. Maybe the ex director selling the last of his holding? If so, why sell this close to March 28th?

Now if they were in fact Buys, that puts a different perspective on it.

All will be revealed on the 28th March - or at least I hope it will!

Judging by the stagnant share price, nobody appears to be getting excited though. Way too many false dawns over the past two years I think.

I agree Yanis. I do wonder at the lack of a TR1 and whether there is an investor not following AIM rules.

I was tempted to email KP2 last week asking some questions on this, but apart from the PR company (who probably would not be interested) I could find a decent contact email address on the Kore Potash website.

Bestmate did post this back on 4 March following a replace he got from the CEO:-

Hi xxxx
At this price I would hope retail investors see opportunity.
There has been a large holder of stock who has not been communicating with us who has been selling.
I don’t believe they have any material quantify of shares left.
Regards
Brad

but since then huge amounts of shares being sold at what still must be a loss-making price.

Something does not add up at all.