Member Info for Mitch984

Why would China want Simandou AND Zanaga? That has always been my take on it. I think China want to control the project, and the presence of Glencore has driven them towards the higher capital cost of Simandou. Now they have Simandou, I just cannot see them needing another huge green field resource in the near future.

While the Simandou bid can only be positive for placing a value on Zanaga, I think it therefore rules out a Chinese bid for Zanaga. However there are several other mining companies that have the resources to buy Zanaga - if Glencore will agree of course.

Here we go again. Another decent rise without any concrete news, and all the ramping/deramping accusations start to fly.

The only thing that will maintain a share price rise for Zioc now is firm and direct news. We have had years of rises and falls based on speculation and rumour, and that is all today's price rise is based on. Without firm news, it will fall back again next week or later this week.

We will attract some new small buyers today because of being in the day's top risers. They will try to make their quick 5%, then exit later this afternoon or tomorrow.

We need big institutional buyers to get the share price to where it should be. All the we have at present is a small group of long term holders who do not buy/sell on daily price moves - and a large amount of small traders who buy/sell for short term profit. And it is the last group only that affect the share price at present.

"Or it could well be they already have a deal with us? Just dotting the i’s and t’s are holding things up? Worth thinking about"

I can't see any way China would want Simandou AND Zanaga, so if they had already done a deal with Zanaga, why bid for Simandou?

I just think if China win the Simandou bid, there will be no interest from them in Zanaga. Although it will always be a mystery why they went for Simandou with the huge capital and logistics issues.

I tend to agree with Extrader though - if China do get Simandou, Fortescue may be a better partner or buyer for Zanaga anyway.

China backed company are favourites for Simandou:-

https://www.theafricareport.com/18940/china-closer-to-control-of-guineas-simandou-north/

The big question for us is - would China want Simandou AND Zanaga? Personally I hope Fortescue win Simandou as that would encourage China to seriously go after Zanaga.

Personally I still think the Glencore ownership element of Zanaga is holding the Chinese back. Otherwise why go for Simandou at 10x the capital cost for the same quantity/quality of ore? The only possible reason is that they want virtually total control.

Good news on interest in Simandou in Guinea - the Chinese have not made a bid:-

https://www.news.com.au/world/breaking-news/fortescue-to-go-headtohead-for-simandou/news-story/3fdea34217c5a7178319ff5ed2e3e7b6

Despite the illogical aspects (Zanada has a capital development cost that is just 10% of Simandou's), I was always cocerned that China would want 100% of Simandou rather than having to share a stake in Zanaga with Glencore.

This appears to be the news we have been waiting for. Let's hope Zanaga confirm it all in the half year update scheduled for tomorrow or (as is more likely now) Monday.

I really do not know why people are mentioning an RNS about today's news. We have the company Half Year Report due in the next few days, so I am sure there will be mention of the developments in that.

The news today on its own is definitely not within the RNS guidelines. There is no direct mention of Zioc in the official reports, so absolutely no reason for Zioc to release an RNS. They can of course make mention in their Half Year Report of the relevance of the news to future plans.

As it appears some posters do not understand the TR1 filing regulations, here they are. The timing has got nothing to do with when someone "finishes buying". If an investor crosses the 3% threshold and every 1% after that, they must file a TR1 within two days.

For CTEA, 3% is 96,720,000 shares:-

In accordance with the London Stock Exchange (LSE) rules, an investor who acquires, exceeds or falls below 3%, 4%, 5%, 6%, 7%, 8%, 9%, 10% and each 1% threshold thereafter up to 100% of a UK Company, must, under the Companies Act 1985 Section 198, disclose their interests to the London Stock Exchange and the company, within two days.

I do hope tomorrow is some kind of turning point - but I have seen days like Friday and today too many times to be entirely sure. The number of posts rsing into the hundreds. Loads of names I have never seen before. Ramping and deramping. And mostly small traders looking to make their 10% or so.

Everything IS all falling into place. I just have a feeling we are still a few months away from concrete news on anything, including the port - and especially from Zanaga. I do hope I'm wrong.

Until we do get definite news, all of us long term holders have seen this so many many times. Sadly.

I have always read Simandou bids this way. Any company/country that puts in a serious bid for Simandou must know they have no chance of getting Zanaga. Otherwise why bid for something so many times more expensive for much less ore?

In other words, they know Glencore will not let Zanaga go. Now whether that is a good thing for us shareholders is a different question.

I think its more than just a lame tweet. If AT and co really were talking to the Chinese about investing, a tweet like that mentioning an alternative home for Chinese money is the last thing he would tweet.

It's a total no brainer for any country or company looking to invest to choose Zanaga over Simandou. So why aren't they? Maybe the Chinese only want 100% ownership, and they know Glencore won't sell. Otherwise it makes no sense for anyone to chase Simandou if Zanaga is open to investment or a buy out.

I suppose we will have a better idea by August 2nd. If the Chinese bid for Simandou, that would be bad news for us. If they pass, then.......

Sidney "There is also the ongoing conversations with the ‘Chinese’ That Andrew Trahar has commented on numerous times now..."

Where is your evidence of this "ongoing conversation"? Trahar has never to my knowledge confirmed officially any discussion with any Chinese entity. If he has mentioned it informally to anyone, then he will have broken several inside trading regulations, so I think that is unlikely either.

There is enough about the huge potential of Zioc in your excellent post without stating something as fact when it is not. Yes, The Chinese may well be interested - but there is no concrete confirmation or evidence of that from anyone connected to Zioc.

My big gripe is that we are all still basing our optimism on speculation. It's about time Zioc actually announced something concrete - DSO, EPP or anything - instead of all these never ending costing exercises leading up to eventually presenting something to Jumelles for their possible approval.

Let's hope the IMF decision is the catalyst for Zioc and Glencore to accelerate the snail pace they have been moving at on every element of Zanaga for the past two years!

It's great news and a vital first step, but I am not sure we will see 15-25p until the port go-ahead is officially announced. We could see a 20% rise tomorrow, but if we then have a couple of months with no port news and nothing (as per usual) from Zioc, then we will a slight retrenchment again as the short term holders take their profits and move on.

C'mon guys. Sooty has been here a long time, as have many of us. Long termers have seen all of this before. There is still nothing official yet - either on the port or on a Zanaga EPP. Until there is, any upswing in the share price is driven by short-termers attracted here by the big rise in optimistic tweets and the rise in the number of posts on thus board. Many of those will bail (as they seem to have today) when they have made their 40 or 50% profit.

Yes, there is huge potential - but equally there is still nothing concrete. Thursday/Friday may be the first significant step since the granting of the licence towards realising the potential however.

Even with a positive result this week from the IMF, it will still need an official port announcement to maintain the share price in the 15-25p range. This is AIM - another six months of no news on the port and nothing from Zioc and it will drift back down.

Let's hope we have crossed that bridge though. In the meantime, let's not criticise those of us who will only cheer madly when we get official announcements on the port and from Zioc.

A re-post from MM on Twitter, posted without comment other than to say we have been here before - but it does and will make sense at some stage:-

Chinese interests understood to be in active and current discussions over the huge and high grade #Zanaga #ironore mine.

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/no-one-annoyed-chinas-leadership-more-than-julie-bishop/news-story/d197a136d238b32b477e3bea6d324f38

We have to remember that this is basically an one employee operation (AT), as amateur as it may sound for an AIM company with a FT250 partner. The downside of this is that it means costing, projections, progress etc is very slow. The slight upside is that annual overheads are not high.

Personally I would prefer more acceleration through Glencore showing their commitment and throwing a few skilled staff into the mix so things move along quicker.

It doesn't seem that will happen though, so we have AT trying to do everything with the very occasional meeting with Glencore people - who's main duties are elsewhere.

All I want to see is some kind of commitment from Zioc, Glencore or Jumelles to move this project along. I have sen no sign of that as yet, which is both amateurish and puzzling.

An angry and quite accurate post by our late and lamented (by some) MM over on Twitter. Even he is totally tired of the silence and the seeming complete lack of progress.

I have to agree with him - the PR at Zioc is a joke. It does make you wonder if Zioc a one-man operation with little support from Glencore.

MM's tweet:-

This ??@Zanaga_Iron_Ore on 8th March 2018 '..conclusive decision on transport..during H2 2018'. A year later and still no decision on transport from #ZIOC, yet the company's insipid PR still tries to sell progress to PIs in private briefings. As iron ore prices surge - **** up and brewery ??

Now we know why we had a huge seller two months ago that the company claimed they could not identify. Share price plummeted as a result, allowing today's low price buy in.

This is ripe for official investigation in my view.

Zama 3 results will have zero impact on the PMO share price. The Zama 2 appraisal didn't.

We might see some slight upward movement from the 16th May trading update - provided it shows progress on paying down debt. In the meantime, we will be tied to the oil price - small rises when the oil prices rises, bigger declines when it doesn't.

The 16th May update has all the signs of being very positive, judging by TD's recent interview, but PMO will probably stay undervalued until we see a substantial reduction in debt and a more settled medium term outloook on the price of oil.

I'm in a similar position, Beardozer.

Like you, I'm puzzled by the occasional big seller who must be selling at a significant loss. I can understand smaller holders selling purely because of impatience, but anyone who bought a large holding surely must see the long term potential.

Personally, I don't think we will get back to the 20s until we get to "spades in the ground" on the EPP. The rampers, and therefore the excitement, about Zioc are long gone. Around the time we climbed into the 20s (speculation about the port go ahead, and maybe a buy out), there were 50-100 posts a day on this board. Sadly with AIM, that is what can drive a share higher - especially a share like Zioc which has no institutional holders.

I'm still certain patience will be rewarded, but in the meantime it is quite disheartening look at my paper losses.