Member Info for mister_tidal

Maybe it's because I'm just an armchair investor why I might see things that aren't there. Maybe not just maybe.

In the past years I took on shares mostly because I anticipated a turn around. Mostly because of CfD wins yet.. none of this has materialized so far. Instead, the share price just kept on dropping.

That said.. today it's once again a situation where I feel like this should turn but this time is different. This time I believe that the company must be undervalued. Uskmouth is surely worth more than what's in the books. Buying this from SAE would definitely not just cost you £40 to £50m, I believe. With the grid connection, there's opportunity cost and some good will you'd have to pay. I could be absolutely wrong here of course but.. I believe that just in terms of actual asset value SAE might be worth more than what the price reflects and we didn't talk about MeyGen. Uskmouth will make the company profitable if things go well. I don't know what tidal might contribute later down the line.

I think SAE would have a higher market cap if people recognized it's potential. Maybe that's simply not the case right now? I don't know. So.. maybe there's not going to be a big storm but some moderate tailwind bringing us further up. Perhaps SAE will have to deliver first although I know we all would prefer SAE to be able to stir things up and get the attention of more investors.

So yeah, I'm still here.

I bought just €200 worth of these convertibles just to be in and see how this works. Not really an idea how exactly this works but, as the name suggests, they would be converted into shares eventually? Maybe somebody else can explain. Don't forget you could just Google or ask ChatGPT.

*guesstimate

Thanks guys, really interesting posts!

I'm with you Strangy.. a slow burner it is. That +100% was just a small correction, comparatively speaker.

Net worth of MeyGen.. idk but I think that's hard to say anyways. I remember some years ago I made some calculations on what 1 MWh costs and how long a turbine needs to spin until it has paid for itself. But it's hard to say how cheap they might get if SAE was to order that many for a full deployed at MeyGen..

It's estimated that 1GW deployed should see a drop to £100/MWh. It's not linear so let's call it £120/MWh for 400MW deployed at MeyGen?

Been sick for 7 days now and I am utterly bored.. can someone please entertain me and throw in a few speculative theories on how SAE is going to do in the next few months?

4p is the lower bound, I think most will agree. I was always an up to 7p person but Strangy offers 10p.. do I hear 12p from someone?

What color is your Lambo going to have? /j

Note: I didn't ask what kind of "irrational swings" may happen provided this is a micro cap AIM stock..

Here is ChatGPT for you:

SIMEC Atlantis Energy (SAE) Valuation Summary

Projects and Cash Flows:

Uskmouth BESS: 120MW/240MWh, estimated £7.9m annual cash flow post-2027, terminal value of £134m.

MeyGen Tidal + BESS: Expansion planned, potential £5m annual cash flow by 2030.

Debt and Challenges:

Existing Debt: £50m, significantly reduces equity value.

High debt servicing costs and potential refinancing risks.

Equity Value and Share Price Estimates:

Base Case (2027-2030): Post-debt equity value of £30m, share price £0.04/share.

Moderate Case (Debt Refinancing): Equity value rises to £50m, share price £0.07/share.

Optimistic Case (Successful Execution): Equity value of £150m, share price £0.21/share.

Risks:

Execution delays, regulatory uncertainties, and high financing costs.

Possible dilution from equity raises to manage debt.

Upside Potential:

Debt refinancing, asset sales, and scaling BESS projects could unlock higher value.

Key Takeaway:

Near-term share price is likely £0.04-£0.07, with potential upside to £0.21 in the long term if SAE manages debt effectively and delivers on its projects.

And when Strangy says something like that you can ve sure he's not lying about his sentiment! 😁

Didn't take any offense, no worries :)

Regarding chartists: some of them may believe they can learn enough to predict prices. Many might get into that, I presumably, based on that premise.

However, I come to realize that reading charts is actually only good to "predict" likely favorable entry points. Even those are not a certainty but the thing is.. if enough people believe it, it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy on occasions. For SAE it means I waited for 2 GBX before buying more shares. There was no guarantee that this will happen or that the SP will stay above 2p but ot was likely a better move than to buy already at 2.5p, for example. I was also told that not every stock is the same here. Some form more visible patterns than others. Let's call it an art, with a little science. I can see how it can help getting a better entry, something.

I just wanted to check back in and here it finally is 😅

Thanks from my side as well Mehmet. Btw I didn't mean to say that I saw the previous rise as meaningless. Perhaps we only saw a correction from 3p and now, with a new heads up, the path is clear to get beyond that. Let's see 🚀

True. But tbh: so far the SP really behaved surprisingly consistent with respect to what my sister predicted. She does some technical trading and she pretty much told me that, given the SP does not go beyond 3p up to 4 or 5, then it will likely move sideways and bounce between 2p and 3p. But let's see. One positive RNS should move us above 3p easily I'd expect.

Since I am currently sick at home, I have too much time and hand checking the SP 😅 I have too much skin in the game and really want this to go up and stabilize..

*construction

.. is likely going to be BESS related, right?

Constructed is supposed to start in March. Besides that, do we expect news on further projects as well soonish?

Oh man, congrats to that. Were you able to take profits? :)

I simply don't see how we can stay below 4, 5 or maybe 6 GBX short to mid term..

The question I keep asking myself is how we're not there yet?

What am I not seeing?

I don't want to be in the 4 to 6 GBX situation and then have to tell myself "I knew it! It was so obvious so why did I not chip in?".

The SP also kinda behaves as is this is just the calm before the storm..

But everyone DYOR of course..

My buy order for 50k shares just triggered (Frankfurt) ..

😅

*munin

Thanks mining!

Thanks OT. Always a good sign to see (genuine) open positions!

I agree it's not likely and it won't happen fast but 20 GBX is possible in an ideal case. It will take 5 to 10 years maybe but it's possible and even more so if things turn favorably for tidal. I say 4 or 5 GBX is almost certain with BESS. The rest is perhaps up to how tidal goes over the next 5+ years.