Member Info for mishmos

Wouldn't have thought you really needed to read about the divi statement debacle to get the message from the posts on here. But any sort of statement that is not janet and john style seems to spook the horses, analysts, media....... Volume appears to be way down so far today which may be a sign of stabilisation. But then again...... Yes, the feeling of getting more for less (when a share drops) is the anticipation of a rise or not.

Pokerchips, there are of course many good points in your post about Shell and GSK, however a declining share price in real terms regardless of what instigated it is something. GSK in real terms is an underperformer unless you bought in at a bargain price. The shenanigans that shot it up then down merely exacerbate the underlying weakness of its position. How many companies can really expect to maintain the divi (despite the financial media's obsession with filling copy with the same regurgitated drivel) in years or even months to come. Even the "mighty" IT shares are now talking about lower payouts especially given the fact that so many shares are at record levels. GSK is partly a victim of market forces and perhaps chasing the wrong next big thing. Just as Shell is subject to the oil price despite its foray into other areas now, so GSK is subject to the dreaded generics and price pressures. I very recently bought in for capital gain purposes and my limited success normally tells me to take my modest profit and move on. However I'm inclined to see if GSK can hold onto its gain above £13 until next year and get to £13.50 ish. Could there be a Santa rally. I do ask though what would drive it higher and keep it there, are all those who bought in below £13 for the now more attractive divi mostly all in and what would it take to drive it towards £12.

I too bought in at launch but didn't get full allocation which didn't surprise me. On paper this is a cash generative niche company and they are mooting 6% divi, we'll see. If it does drop I'll certainly have a punt with more though.

I hate to say this but a prolonged period of downward pressure on the rush to keep buying cr*p to fill our homes would knock a chunk off of their balance sheet. If people aren't prepared to pay more for home made goods then at least let's buy fewer of them. It always amazes me that those (intellectually challenged) who expect to keep paying less for the cr*p Amazon delivers (made in China) would never dream of accepting a pay cut themselves yet expect retailers to keep dropping prices. Much the same as the year round out of season tasteless fruit and veg we see in the supermarkets. People never learn the lessons of the "law of unforeseen consequences". If it looks too good to be true then it almost certainly is.

Personally, I'd be very wary of any deal/partnership involving China. They have more front than all the "personalities" in the city of London and Brighton combined. The one and only USP is cheap and plentiful labour compared to the developed world and ability through the corporatists who decided it was worth sacrificing our way of life to give the keys of the house to China. There are several constants however with China; it is jerry built, intellectual property is regularly nicked and they'll mix anything with a binding agent to bulk it up. Most of the apparent population don't even know what medicine is outside of smearing themselves with goat horn powder or bat dung. If they did manage to offer treatments to the wider population to help treat the cancers, respiratory, skin and genetic problems they have rushed head long to acquire in their rush to copy the developed worlds industrial revolution period it would cost more than their alleged GDP output. Cheap and cheerful is their currency sadly.

Fird, I'm in today 12.75. Have I caught a falling knife? Hope not.

Who would buy this and why? What has GSK got that makes it attractive to other pharma companies (the ones that could afford to buy it). I thought they needed to buy some consumer lines to bolster revenue themselves. The pipeline is hardly setting the world alight and its current offering surely doesn't have the mass market or profitability appeal. Maybe it does and I am missing something. Generics are knocking on many pharma co's doors as price pressures bite. Isn't the name of the game minnows who are at stage III then get a partnership with the big boys. If takeover is a real possibility, why? I am genuinely interested. I know Astra Zeneca were chased and some expected them to be approached again.

"Who cares if this goes to �12". Well, let's say that you buy in at �12,75 and it does go to �12, but then only achieves �12.60 for some time but you have effectively subsidised your own divi payment,( which may or may not fall in 2019) unless you are holding for some indeterminate period. Sure the divis get paid, but if you need that capital and the divis don't cover your capital loss........

Fird, Sadly, no. I didn't buy in. There is a feeling that GSK could have much further to drop. I am concerned that if it heads too far towards �12 I'll get stuck waiting for some gradual step ups to a profitable price. However there was a point that it was low enough, but I didn't want to play chicken. But good news for 2018 for divi holders.

Fird, Yes, def early days for certain but I'm afraid I was waiting to jump in at sub �12.90 probably around �12,80 ish in all honesty. I only make my profit on scalping sorry to say. I would however have made an exception on GSK at the right price if I believed it would rise above �14.50 and hold. It might well do. Still, I'm happy for those long term and divi holders for the upswing today. However feel it will take more than a broker note to keep it there but who knows. If I did I would not need to trade. I used my GSK money this morning to up my platinum shares which with the timing of pure luck took an upswing after being caught in a $2 rut for some time. If the shares don't get me the $ v � rate might. Driftking27, you won't want to go back further then than 10 years with regard to the share price, grim reading, but perhaps not re:divi v share price.

Looks like a bit of relief for the long term holders at last. For them great news, for me I haven't yet seen my sub �12.90 buy in point and maybe won't now.

I wouldn't get too excited by china personally. This is a country that mutilates live animals to enhance the taste of their flesh, believes animal nails (well rhino horn) is a medicine, bear bile (spit to you and me) is a medicine......... They are more likely to throw the medicine away and stick the packet in their face along with a lump of bear spit while dancing naked round a bowl of maggots in sweet and sour. Surely big pharma has had its day and the minnows who seek partnerships or buyouts are the future. Let's be brutal, if gsk paid 2% divi few would be holding it. It may well do in years to come. Capital appreciation is a wing and a prayer job. Consolidation is the game it seems now with gsk possibly looking to buy consumer divisions of two others although they are playing the pharma fan dance version of will we won't we.

I'm waiting to buy in but not above �13 or even �12.90, so I may be disappointed if this rises and holds onto that rise or even climbs back up. Bad luck for me and good fortune for others. I'm sorry but I really don't see any bargain. Maybe if you bought at �14 or �15 or even more it appears that way. A bargain implies capital growth surely at this price to possible declining divi ratio.

I really don't see what there is to hold this up. If or when it rises it will do so with as much logic as beyond the post divi remark decline. Presumably sub �12 is being tested now, games aside because the share really is not worth what many once paid for it or the market makers and obscured trades/position builders want it down further. I cannot recall without difficulty any analyst ever being spot on about a share price for all the quoted fundamentals more inspite of them. I appreciate that if you bought at some �'s higher for the divi it is worrying especially if there is a cut, but a bit like negative equity if you don't need to move house it is a non problem. Surely, even if the divi was cut by 20% it is still a decent payout unless you need that capital. We all know shares are a form of gambling, but the underlying quality of many companies the rumour mill and market manipulators makes it more risky today in my opinion.

You would think that the way that the market has been behaving over the last few days especially with blue chip shares that the much vaunted correction might be happening given how often the commentators have stated that shares are way to expensive. Who knows, but if you don't need your capital and you are happy with the divi does it really matter. I used to be able to trade within certain share margins without too much difficulty, not always successful, but more often than not I was never chasing that mythical 10 bagger. It is definitely harder now to find a range to trade within. I wouldn't beat yourself up over buying too high thousands of us have, me with Capita on my last buy with them getting a little greedy, but refused to keep holding and took the hit. But there is no doubt that this "game" is getting harder even without relying upon a divi.

smudger1951,I rarely equate ceo's or other board members own holdings as any benchmark of competence or commitment unless it is sizeable and the purchase/s come directly from their own pockets rather than a bonus or awarded shares. I recall Sandy Cromby at Standard Life pre floatation days when it was still a great company as a mutual. He was extolling the virtues of going public and his salary package (already obscene )was based upon his performance part of which included how tidy he kept his working environment or as we know it his desk. I kid you not. He had an �8 million pension pot a bonus to exceed some countries gdp and sold Standard Life down the river by bribing the policy holders with a few pounds. My point is that these ceo's hands rarely touch their own pockets in the scheme of things so overall the share price will probably not keep her awake at night. Even if she went the revolving door of job hopping ceo's would mean a nice paid role elsewhere.

Maybe you hadn't heard the politburo doesn't exist any longer comrade. Swap factory workers, tractor drivers and politburo for market makers, regulators and general barrow boys and you are almost there. If you got all Thatcher on suggesting that a regulator given real powers with able people by politicians made my suggestion a communist plot then watch out for the "reds under the bed" and don't knock your **** pot over when looking.

Sadly, the quality of companies and the boards are not what they once were. Look at the antecedence of dodgy practices in big pharma second probably only to arms dealing; all those Dr's didn't get the swimming pools, top of the range mercs and luxury hols through the hippocratic oath years ago. If we look at the smoke and mirrors of the industry as a whole it is abysmal. Add in the barrow boy market makers, supposedly the control mechanism for erratic swings in the market, the loaned shares to short a share, hidden sizeable trades, rumour merchants and all the other hangers on feeding off of thin air, it's a miracle anyone outside of the inner rectum of barrow boys makes a penny. What has kept this relatively safe has been the divi and now ambiguity has been introduced in the bluntest terms. What is to keep this share above �13 now between divi payments, not retail investors. Why wouldn't this share have drifted below �13 anyway without the divi reference as it is not as though it stands head and shoulders above any other big pharma outfit. It's no longer about cutting edge treatments, the next big cure, it's all about press releases, rumour, share manipulation, consolidation, reducing staff........ Divi shares should come with a huge warning that when you place an income bet by buying a share that a big chunk of your capital may be subsidising your income. It's rotten for people invested and relying upon the divi seeing their capital eroded. The cure is not in the hands of the boards, retail investors, but politicians allowing the three ring circus that is share trading and those that control/manipulate it to do so freely. For selfish reasons I hope I see sub �13 and for those seeking capital protection while relying upon divi income I hope I am wrong.

Surely the first half of next week will be the litmus test for support of this share. You have to ask aside from game playing what will drive this share significantly higher.

I see many are rightly upset about the share price fluctuations after THE statement and in my opinion if you are going to leave any room for wild interpretation because let's be honest that is often what so called analysts do along with the paid commentators then a share that has generally underperformed for years in real terms with pressure applied frequently on its product drop off and lower pipeline returns should have had some meat on the bones when issuing updates. It's na�ve to imagine a statement that leaves any doubt on a divi held share would not have wider implications. If the share doesn't rise pre divi today then what's going to hold it up or prevent a significant drop Friday and beyond. Presumably casual investors will sell after the divi rules allow (hoping that it hasn't dropped sufficiently to swallow their divi) and long term holders will retain for the current divi. I would love to buy this at sub �13 however against all my previous thoughts on waiting I bought in late yesterday hoping for a profit at �1352 today otherwise i'll get my fingers singed!