Member Info for Mirasol

All fine David but:-

1. Where does the money come from and when to build 10-30 new sites? In 5 years they've drilled 3 wells

2. Here financing = constant dilution. How many trillions of shares will be out there if they survive another year or so?

3. Will their financiers continue to cough up? Only if they can get rid of the stock

4. Can they produce 3000 BOP per site? Total silence on long term guidance for 2020 production volumes suggests they don't think so

The whole data pack is 360 pages - just goes to show the hoops they have to jump through - its a vast job creation scheme.

And get one thing wrong and the swampies will be all over you........... no wonder the Majors stay away

Planners back Dunsfold

https://drillordrop.com/2020/05/13/planners-back-dunsfold-drilling-site-despite-80-public-opposition/

380 page report here

https://mycouncil.surreycc.gov.uk/documents/g7517/Public%20reports%20pack%20Thursday%2021-May-2020%2010.30%20Planning%20and%20Regulatory%20Committee.pdf?T=10

Tymers Posts: 2,878 Price: 0.26 Strong Buy 11/05/20
RE: Blue AgainMon 21:25
Holders and new 4 days blue 16% up the momentum has only just begun. II's buying in follow the money. Expect a great week ukog united

"Balcombe is a very valuable prospect to Angus and could at pre-crisis oil prices justify on its own the market capitalisation. We won't give up on it."

i don't think many people agree with him - it's just something to keep the punters engaged until SFB starts - then we'll never hear of it again. Note UKOG have been very quiet about the Kimm up the road.............

Wressle was curious tho' -it was single Councillor who swayed the decision and he did it because he had had a run-in with the EA on some of his activities. the fact that the EA had approved the Egdon application was a red rag to a bull to this idiot

as one of the most prominent politicians in Belgium said about 5 years ago about the financial crisis

"Yes of course we know what needs to be done - the problem is doing it and then getting re-elected.."

"Is there a way to access more of VSA research for free? Or is there a good company doing similar independent research that is avaliable online?"

I think you can sign up here https://vsacapital.com/research-portal/

But I've never found this sort of "research " of much use - its often only done on companies they deal with and for and they have a more negative view of the competition. It's pushed out to pump the stock

"With Brent in the low $30s, think UKOG needs to produce about 800+ bopd to break even at the level of operating results."

Ocelot - I think you're being a bit pessimistic - the costs to end of year include a lot of work on site - testing kit , analysis etc etc. If they can get it flowing at 300 bopd (and cut the overheads and bonuses) they'll be OK

"You have no idea but let's just say yes I'm a wealthy man and ukog represents about 5% of my portfolio. The reason I'm here yes the sp will multi bag and secondly digest weak little trolls ukog united"

Ah yes - so rich that you, like Warren Buffet, spend hours on a board pumping a share that has cratered by a factor of 50 from it's all time high? No one believes you 10p but if it keeps you off the streets I suppose we should all be thankful for small mercies.................

"Feck it ended blue , Sanderson will want a rise"

Yes - up 1/100th of penny - probably only take £ 100 k extra................

"Tymers,Sting69,TrollHunter2,Joey86,PCS "

Shooter - FYI PCS had a melt down and Joey has seen the light and is a happay as the rest of the "masked Trolls" and LTH's

10pTymers still peddles away - he must really need the income-

"Ukog is only going one way north I know it "

"Today's so is for most investors golden ticket beyond the 50 percent traders this has 25p written all over it for 2020.glhTymers 23/12/19"

10p really did say TWENTY FIVE p not the current price of 1/100 of that number.......... :)))

"Who will be able to compete with us- Not North Sea Producers, Nor USA Shale, Nor the Saudis, nor the Iranians, Nor the Russians, Maybe the Norwegians and some emerging economys."

Well even 1000 bopd - which is a dream here - rather pales cp say UK production of 1700000 barrels a day - say 0.06% . I'm sure everyone in Saudi is quaking in their boots.

"Even if we have to spend another £20 million plus to fully get production flowing to its full potential it will be cheap and the money will be well spent."

who will lend it and how much dilutions is that - looking at the market cap you're talking of DOUBLING the no of shares to a mere 20 Bn - AIM will have to buy a bigger computer.

"New wells will be funded by cash generated from HH."

Oily - that's the problem - unless and until they can get over about 300- 500 bopd then they can't generate the £ 3 mm a new site and well and test will cost.

BWM - 300 bopd at oil prices over $30 should be enough to ensure UKOG survives (assuming they cut back the overheads and the bonuses).

The problem arises if they want to drill new wells - at 300 bopd I reckon they might be able to self finance one a year (which would be an improvement over past performance sadly - 3 wells in going on 6 years). Anything else will require more outside investment - quite where from I'm less and less sure.

Zoom - the price of oil only affects UKOG in so far as it covers their costs

There has been no TR1 on Tellurian shares and YA will sell at any price above their conversion price . PCS always used to point out how they'd wait until near close to see what the y could sell under the loan agreement and dump that every day. They don't care about holding on for higher prices - they can make a guaranteed profit as long as people will buy.

"Ocelot - the market isn’t going to attach any value to the potential here. There isn’t any potential."

here we disagree BWM - there IS potential - the problem is getting it out in a meaningfull time frame. Everything constantly drifts to the right - it's not all the fault of the BoD but some of it is.

CPR's are only as good as the info they're given plus a great deal of reluctance to commit to anything by the author (s). Since 2018 they have some decent long term production results (admittedly at low levels) and a second well. Again it has complicated the reservoir model but that's not uncommon.

In my view there are real problems in seeing how they will be able to move onto the IoW or Dunsfold quickly - lack of enthusiasm from lenders means it will have to be largely self financing - and you need £ 3mm ++ a well at least. Either of the upside areas are 2-4 years from production.

"No I’m not, but surely there’s a degree of correlation between the two markets no?"

https://www.gaffneycline.com/company/news/gaffneycline-energy-insights-3 - second article

But its still UK Prices that drive SFB

"we can all see the negatives, the question is whether the market has focused too much on the negatives, to the exclusion of the potential positives."

My point is that any investor can see the long term potential - but that's exactly the issue - it's very very long term and history shows that, starting from the UK Onshore, only one company made it from small cap to mid cap over the last 30 years (Tullow). So far UKOG have followed exactly the same trajectory as the others in my list. It doesn't just happen here - look at the Falklands - Rockhopper, Desire, etc etc - all big talk, discoveries and a spike to serious valuation and then a long decline into obscurity. Offshore Ireland also shows similar patterns in small cap oilers.

I hoped the Kim would be a game changer - but 5 years on we still have no serious information as to reserves nor any proof the concept can be upscaled. Right now I'd settle on getting out a profit - so I need around 2.10p

What we need is guidance on annual production volumes and a CPR - assuming they are positive that should get this share out of the gutter by mid- 2021.