The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
The Saudis arrived in Pak'istan at the weekend, looking to invest in Reko Diq, Barrick's monster copper-gold project.
Twofold significance to us. Firstly, Reko Diq is in the adlands where Pak'istan meets Iran and Afghanistan, so no problem with domain for the saudis. Secondly, the Saudis are thought to have $1bn for their supposed 20% stake, though Barrick talk of $10bn for the whole. Either way Manara Minerals have the cash for the right project, no matter where it is.
https://www.mining.com/web/saudi-manara-minerals-team-in-****stan-for-talks-on-reko-diq-mine-stake-document-shows/
the saudis arrived in ****stan at the weekend, looking to invest in reko diq, barrick's monster copper-gold project.
twofold significance to us. firstly, reko diq is in the badlands where ****stan meets iran and afghanistan, so no problem with domain for the saudis. secondly the saudis are thought to have $1bn for their supposed 20% stake, though barrick talk of $10bn for the whole. either way manara minerals have the cash for the right project, no matter where it is.
https://www.mining.com/web/saudi-manara-minerals-team-in-****stan-for-talks-on-reko-diq-mine-stake-document-shows/
Very well worth following Marty on LinkedIn for a real insight into his thinking and direction, such as Steel Times International's post on the MENA Green Steel Summit this September, bringing together the worldwide value chain for green steel:
Steel Times International - 5 464 abonnés 15 h.
'MENA Green Steel Summit 2024, scheduled to be held on September 25-26 in Dubai, is a two-day international conference and mini expo aiming to bring tremendous steel experts and decision makers across the industry value chain worldwide sharing market intelligence and insights into how the future green steelmaking is evolving, greatly supported by speakers from World Steel Association, ESTEP (European Steel Technology Platform), IEEFA Asia Pacific, Arabian Gulf Steel Industries LLC, Emirates Steel Arkan, Jindal Steel & Power, EI Marakby Steel, Vale, Citi Group and SHS – Stahl-Holding-Saar GmbH & Co. KGaA, etc. and expected to be attended by approximately 200+ delegates worldwide.'
Marty also like something very specific, a post from the Guinea Mining Ministry in which Simandou was on their agenda.
Adding a little to that love in, alwayshoping, direct flights to start between Beijing and Riyadh:
King Khalid International Airport in #Riyadh launches a direct flight connect to the #Chinese capital, #Beijing
https://twitter.com/EKHNews_EN/status/1787704863473770531
Of note and perhaps more than coincidental is that direct flights are also planned between Dubai and Brazzaville.
Bonus question:
Who wrote and when?
'(Zanaga) is without doubt a world class iron ore project, with a fantastic team and we look forward to working with them to unlock what we see as major potential value for shareholders.'
Who wrote and when?
'During recent engagements with RoC Ministries .. and potential strategic investors .. being the first mover in the region of high grade, low impurity iron concentrates for green steel production is strongly supported and makes for an exciting future for Zanaga.'
Marty's trail of breadcrumbs over on LinkedIn continues to give very strong pointers to ongoing FEED activity by the company.....and that means development news is nigh.
In the 30th April RNS Marty emphasised, '..the upcoming FEED phase will not only seek to validate and enhance our technical confidence but critically, develop Zanaga's management plans around environment, community, training, health, water, mine wastes and ultimate closure...'
Yesterday Marty 'liked' a MEC Mining's post on LinkedIn. 'When you select MEC to partner with you on your project ..'
MEC offer these services, which dovetail very neatly with Marty's comments (above and in the RNS):
'MEC Mining is a global technical consulting firm specialising in mining services capabilities across the project life cycle from early-stage exploration through development, mine planning, onsite management to mine closure and rehabilitation.'
https://www.mecmining.com.au/
ps://fr.linkedin.com/in/marty-knauth-49992235
https://au.linkedin.com/company/mec-mining
Huge numbers being tossed about here, including for Gulf 'green steel'.
UAE AND OMAN AGREE ON A $32 BILLION GREEN MEGAPROJECT
The project includes renewable energy initiatives and green steel production capacity..
https://gmk.center/en/news/uae-and-oman-agree-on-a-32-billion-green-megaproject/
Interesting. When even The Express starts talking 'high grade' you know the MSM is receptive to Zanaga news. Simandou's grade is 65.5% compared to Zanaga's 66% for Stage 1, 68.5% Stage 2 for a blended 67.5% .
The rag describes Simandou as, '..the world’s largest and highest-grade new iron ore mine.'
Marty Knauth says, 'Here, hold my beer'.
Our hard, development news is going to be explosive.
19:51, Fri, May 3, 2024 | UPDATED: 19:57, Fri, May 3, 2024
Incredible £5bn mega-project to build 235 bridges and 15 miles of tunnels in tiny country
To transport the iron ore, a new railway line will be constructed connecting the mountainous region to the coast.
A mega rail project in Africa has been given the green light and will provide much-needed investment.
Plans to develop a huge new iron ore mine have been given the go-ahead by authorities in Guinea.
Discovered back in the 1990s, iron ore deposits in the country's Simandou mountains will now be extracted after a deal was struck between Rio Tinto and the Singapore company Winning Consortium Simandou (WCS) - both of which hold majority stakes in the mining complex.
Simandou is poised to become the world’s largest and highest-grade new iron ore mine.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1895485/train-line-tunnels-project-africa-Guinea
No smoke without fire? Banking analysts and media speculate that Glencore could bid for Anglo American, with some making the connection into iron ore marketing.
> We forget, but our 46% shareholder Glencore are very well motivated to see Zanaga developed. This will help them to a dominant position in marketing high grade iron ore for green steel.
Those analysts will catch up eventually, and when they do....
"Unlike BHP, Glencore could benefit from keeping Kumba and marketing iron ore, and Glencore may face less political pushback in South Africa..." Jefferies analyst Christopher LaFemina said in a research note on April 29, where he assessed different takeover scenarios for Anglo American.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/glencore-studying-an-approach-anglo-american-sources-say-2024-05-02/
The MSM and industry press has yet to join the dots from Green Steel to Zanaga, but when the spotlight does finally shine on Zanaga the resulting SP rise will be truly spectacular.
What will be the trigger? Just a snippet of news that connects any of the Strategics will do it - Baosteel, PIF/MM, whoever.
Marty name-checked 'green steel' in the RNS, and I'm now certain the company are going to major on that in upcoming PR. Then the media will join the dots...
'...This clash of big dirt and high finance suggests that Anglo harbours something worth fighting over. Its big mines indeed tick all the right boxes: high quality and low cost, with the potential to expand. They are also extracting the right stuff at the right time. One of Anglo’s main products is copper, which is in high demand, particularly as tonnes of it will be needed for the electrification of transport and power in the green-energy transition; the red metal’s price has risen by 15% this year. ANOTHER IS HIGH-GRADE IRON ORE, WHICH IS IN DEMAND FOR ITS USE IN FORGING GREEN STEEL...'
https://www.economist.com/business/2024/05/02/why-does-bhp-want-anglo-american
Delayed report of larger buy:
11:15:56 500,000 shares bought at 7.843p
Wipes out the selling account - LOL
They're just being polite...what the company are really saying is that it's time to put up the money:
'The Company believes these positive results provide much greater confidence in the Project's economic feasibility in today's market and cost environment, and with this, provides a key catalyst for potential strategic investors to consider funding of the next logical Project phase, being the front end engineering and design (FEED) program ..'
1. The FEED program has been defined as part of the CapEx for the staged development. Therefore if the FEED is underway the staged development is underway. For that the project has to be owned and hence invested in. No investment, no FEED.
p.31, ZIOC presentation Nov 2019; https://www.zanagairon.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/ZIOC-IP-28.03.19.pdf
2. The updated Net Present Value (NPV) has been calculated using a pretty harsh Discount Rate of 10% - (at the limit of typical 4-10% for all mining projects). That's the biggest discount Strategics are likely to get on any mining project anywhere. The Discount Rate is designed to specifically account for all the risks of a project, i.e. 'Congo'. The FEED stage of a mine development is tasked with mitigating some of these risks. A successful FEED program reduces risks, and hence the Discount Rate would be lowered, and hence the NPV rises. The Strategics would be expected to fund the FEED stage. If not then the NPV would be recalculated *AFTER* the FEED program when the Discount Rate would be lower and the NPV higher.
The company say as much in the RNS, '...the front end engineering and design (FEED) program to further define the Project's physical elements and risk abatement strategies.'
3. Thirdly, the Strategics are subject to NDAs, under which they received the full FS update not made available to us lot. If they want to continue to receive privilege information on which to base their investment decisions (info that we don't get to see) then they now need to start paying for it. After all the FEED is progressing the Staged Development via CapEx spend and risk reduction. If a Strategic doesn't want to do this then that's their choice, but then they are outside the tent and at a severe disadvantage.
Thus the company's '...to consider funding..of FEED' is just being polite in public.
Now the Strategics have to show their hands, and open their wallets.
Further to my comment .. 'AT has been communicative. I understand that all the Strategics have received the full FS report and recostings *but* under NDAs as you might well expect. Of course this makes them insiders and hence they cannot buy ZIOC shares - at least not yet...'
The quid pro quo of any potential Strategic Investor being an insider and hence, for example, receiving the full FS which has not been generally released is that they'll be expected to now fund the FEED works.
If they don't now start paying for the privileged info and works that furthers their intended investment, then they could find themselves outside the tent and hence at a major disadvantage. ZIOC do have cards to play.
It's all go in Brazzaville, and Motsepe will be needing a new mineral port for his phosphate project just 40km from Pointe Noire...
11:49 AM · May 1, 2024
Mining: the Hinda phosphate plant will be launched in May 2025
The exploitation of the deposit, which is located 40 kilometers from the Congolese coast, will allow the creation of nearly 1,000 jobs, including 500 direct jobs.
https://twitter.com/brazzanews/status/1785607397693686048
MINING: HINDA PHOSPHATE PLANT TO BE LAUNCHED IN MAY 2025
Thursday 25 April 2024 - 18:56
The investment in the phosphate mining project in Hinda, Kouilou, was at the centre of the meeting on 24 April in Brazzaville between President Denis Sassou N’Guesso and South African businessman Patrice Motsepe. The actual launch of the plant is scheduled for May next year, the South African billionaire announced.
Negotiations around the phosphate extraction plant and other fertilizers in Hinda have begun since August 2022 with meetings with the ARC management team. Located about 40 km from Pointe-Noire, the Hinda site is renowned for its high concentration of nitrogen and potassium, both of which are part of the composition of the phosphate.
https://www.adiac-congo.com/content/mines-lusine-de-phosphate-de-hinda-sera-lancee-en-mai-2025-156831
My general feeling is that the company have been working very hard on the nitty gritty of getting the Feasibility Study reworked. Also that there has been substantial behind the scenes marketing of Zanaga wrt to grade and future market demands. The company see Zanaga as being in the Top 5 global producers of high grade by 2030. That's direct.
I get the sense that we are now waiting on some externals, perhaps such as the ratification of the Congo-UAE FTA (CEPA) which would confirm investment conditions and hence AD Port going ahead with the mineral port.
If the company do go ahead with some kind of investor call this is where I would direct my questions.
It does also mean that we could be pleasantly surprised by events progressing outside of any company timeline. We shall see.
AT was on WhatsApp and fielding queries on next steps PR. Marty's preferred channel looks to be LinkedIn where he was chatting. On that score Zanaga Iron ore now have a LinkedIn profile.
Worth trying to engage AT and even Marty. They were chatty yesterday.
I understand that ZIOC plan:
An updated Corporate Presentation,
Proactive interview, and
A possible investor call to include Marty.
Yesterday's RNS produced World leading figures for Zanaga:
CapEx - down
OpEx - down
> NPV - doubled $$
> IRR - financially compelling, and then add in geostrategic imperatives for numerous Strategic Partners.
Highlights
Positive results received from the 2024 FS cost update study further underlines the robust economics of the Company's 30 Mtpa staged development Zanaga Iron Ore Project:
· 12Mtpa Stage One
o Capital investment of US$ 1.94 billlion
o Operating cost of US$ 31.5 / dmt FOB
o Net Present Value of US$ 3.68 billion
o Internal Rate of Return of 26.2%
· 18Mtpa Stage Two optional expansion
o Capital investment of US$ 1.87 billion
o Operating cost of US$ 24.9 / dmt FOB
o Total combined Net Present Value of US$ 7.36 billion
o Internal Rate of Return of 28.2%