Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Australia's lowly grades risk being stranded in a low carbon future. Here the Australians are starting to realise their peril.
CHINA’S GREEN STEEL PUSH COULD CRUSH AUSTRALIA’S DIRTY IRON ORE EXPORTS
Published: March 12, 2024 7.14pm GMT
Australia’s largest export, iron ore, has long been a powerhouse of economic growth. Over the past two decades, its contribution to our national income has surged from just A$8 billion in 2005 to over A$124 billion today. The issue lies in the purity of our product. Most of Australia’s current iron ore exports are not classed as high grade. Typically, the lower the iron content of an ore is, the more energy is required to refine it. Our competitors – countries such as Brazil and Guinea with higher-grade ores in relative abundance – are positioned to become the steel industry’s suppliers of choice.
...
Reducing the use of low-grade ore has become a priority for Chinese steel mills, significantly affecting iron ore’s demand profile. Much of the iron ore exported by competing nations like Brazil and Guinea is high-grade, containing more than 65% iron. But most of Australia’s current exports fall below that threshold, between 56% and 62%.
https://theconversation.com/chinas-green-steel-push-could-crush-australias-dirty-iron-ore-exports-219299
The shape of things to come. Anybody got some high grade?
GERMANY STARTS AUCTION FOR GREEN INDUSTRY WORTH UP TO €4 BILLION
Program to help fund clean steel, glass, cement making
Government has set aside about €50 billion for program
By Petra Sorge
11 March 2024 at 18:25 GMT
Germany is set to hold the inaugural auction of a program to offer as much as €4 billion ($4.4 billion) in initial funding to help steel, cement and other heavy industrial producers transition to green technologies.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-11/germany-starts-auction-for-green-industry-worth-up-to-4-billion
As the PIF fill their coffers it is well worth revisiting this from September:
MBS: TODAY WE’RE TRYING TO CLOSE A FEW THINGS, WE’RE AIMING TO CLOSE IN THE FIRST HALF OF 2024
Saudi Arabia is to begin working on the next phase of its economic diversification plan known as Vision 2030 and hopes to unveil its Vision 2040 as early as 2027, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said in an interview this week.
“Today we’re trying to close a few things, we’re aiming to close in the first half of 2024 and then we’re going to shift to implementation and starting preparation for Vision 2040 and announcing Vision 2040 in 2027-2028. So that’s the main thing we are focusing on,” he told Fox News when asked about the government’s current priorities.
https://www.agbi.com/development/2023/09/saudi-arabia-to-begin-preparing-vision-2040/#:~:text=Saudi%20Arabia%20is%20to%20begin,in%20an%20interview%20this%20week.
Now bear in mind that Manara Minerals were formed as far back as January 2023 and have yet to secure any of their mandate (high grade) iron ore, and that ZIOC intend to 'secure their selected partner' by the end of this quarter.
Well, this is interesting. A proactive interview with at from Oct 2020 has been pulled. The question is whether AT revealed a little too much of development plans and the entities involved:
10:32 26 Oct 2020 gmt
THIS VIDEO IS PRIVATE
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/932353/zanaga-iron-ore-to-benefit-from--china-aggressively-pushing-to-secure-large-global-iron-ore-assets--932353.html
But I managed to find it here....
https://Www * research-tree * com /media/zanaga-iron-ore-an-introduction-19-12-2019/id/6055
In it Trahar reveals:
* Agreement with Chinese Gov entities
* Continued engagement with interested parties
* Simandou and Zanaga well understood to be 'strategically significant'
* Approaches (to ZIOC) from entities involved at Simandou
* Steel mill at Pointe Noire with surplus to Chinese customers
Shortly afterwards China shut their borders and, as per at, the entities they had been speaking with were unable to travel.
Fast forward to Nov 2022 and the Glencore restructuring and ZIOC had re-engaged with strategic entities....hmmmmmm
Www * research-tree * com
Replace * with dots
well, this is interesting. a proactive interview with at from oct 2020 has been pulled. the question is whether at revealed a little too much of development plans and the entities involved:
10:32 26 oct 2020 gmt
this video is private
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/932353/zanaga-iron-ore-to-benefit-from--china-aggressively-pushing-to-secure-large-global-iron-ore-assets--932353.html
but i managed to find it here....
https://*********************/media/zanaga-iron-ore-an-introduction-19-12-2019/id/6055
in it trahar reveals:
* agreement with chinese gov entities
* continued engagement with interested parties
* simandou and zanaga well understood to be 'strategically significant'
* approaches (to zioc) from entities involved at simandou
* steel mill at pointe noire with surplus to chinese customers
shortly afterwards china shut their borders and, as per at, the entities they had been speaking with were unable to travel.
fast forward to nov 2022 and the glencore restructuring and zioc had re-engaged with strategic entities....hmmmmmm
(WSJ) Saudi Arabia has moved a roughly $160 billion stake in its state oil giant into its main sovereign wealth fund..
Riyadh, March 07, 2024, SPA -- His Royal Highness Prince Mohammed bin Salman bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud, Crown Prince, Prime Minister, Chairman of the Council of Economic and Development Affairs and Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Public Investment Fund (PIF), announced today the completion of the transfer of 8% of Saudi Aramco's total issued shares from the State's ownership to PIF’s Fully Owned Companies. Following the transfer, the total State’s ownership will be 82.186% of the company’s shares.
His Royal Highness indicated that the transfer of part of the State’s shares in Saudi Aramco is a continuation of Saudi Arabia’s long-term initiatives to boost and diversify the national economy and expand investment opportunities in line with Saudi Vision 2030. The transfer will also solidify PIF’s strong financial position and credit rating.
The Crown Prince concluded that PIF continues with its mandate to launch new sectors, build new strategic partnerships, localize technologies and knowledge, and create more direct and indirect job opportunities in the local market.
-- SPA
15:30 Local Time 12:30 GMT
0028
https://www.spa.gov.sa/w2060838
> $160bn. I wonder how much has been allocated to Manara Minerals?
Rio Tinto Simfer @RioTintoSimfer
Simandou est un projet minier majeur avec un investissement global estimé entre 15 et 20 milliards de dollars, offrant des opportunités pour façonner et transformer l'économie guinéenne au profit des générations actuelles et futures de Guinéens.#Guinee
Translated from French
Simandou is a major mining project with an estimated global investment of between $15 and $20 billion, providing opportunities to shape and transform the Guinean economy for the benefit of current and future generations of Guineans.
#Guinee
5:35 PM · Mar 6, 2024
https://twitter.com/RioTintoSimfer/status/1765430955165028701
> Depending on our current repostings (due any day now) Zanaga Phase 1 development could come in at *just one tenth of Simandou* - perhaps $1.85bn
From Tuesday, rest paywalled:
CHINESE COMPANY BAOWU ESTABLISHES GUINEA SUBSIDIARY TO DEVELOP SIMANDOU IRON MINE
After receiving official authorisation from Beijing to invest in the Simandou project, the Chinese steel giant has now been formally established in Guinea.
https://www.africabusinessplus.com/en/818553/chinese-company-baowu-establishes-guinea-subsidiary-to-develop-simandou-iron-mine/
> Which means Baowu, as the world's largest steel maker and ore ore buyer, is now committed to mining in West Africa.
Just for fun, swapping out Simandou for Zanaga - only half joking:
WHY CHINESE INTEREST IS SOARING IN WEST AFRICAN (ZANAGA) IRON ORE RESERVES
A massive untapped iron ore mine in West Africa has shot up China's list of belt and road priorities as it pushes to cut reliance on Australia and Brazil for the mineral essential to steel production.
Observers say the Guinean iron ore will help China diversify its suppliers to avoid excessive dependence on Australia amid strained ties in recent years, as well as its drive to achieve resource security and to decarbonise the steel value chain since (ZANAGA) offers higher-grade ore.
"China's feud with Australia and desire to diversify its sources changed the economics of the project. In a way, China's desire for access to resources at source has not changed," Moore said, referring to Beijing's angry reaction to Canberra's previous government calling for an international investigation into the origin of the coronavirus, with tariffs imposed on several Australian products including wine. Relations have since eased somewhat under Anthony Albanese, Australia's new prime minister.
Lauren Johnston, a China-Africa researcher at the South African Institute of International Affairs in Johannesburg, said China's goal in the massive (ZANAGA) investment was higher quality ore development.
"[Chinese] President Xi Jinping launched a plan [on the Brics summit margins] in Johannesburg in August to foster African industrialisation - perhaps the plan is also to use Simandou's ore for this plan too," Johnston said.
She said because Zimbabwe is about to inaugurate Africa's largest steel mill, perhaps some of the ore from (ZANAGA) will go there as well. Chinese steel giant Tsingshan Holding Group is building a US$1 billion iron and steel plant in Zimbabwe through subsidiary firm Dinson Iron and Steel.
Gao of CRU Group highlighted China's aim to diversify its iron ore suppliers to avoid dependence on Australia and Brazil, which account for 82 per cent of global seaborne iron ore exports.
She said though low-grade ores are in high demand now, the steel industry's aim to decarbonise the sector will lead to a growing demand for higher-grade ores.
"(ZANAGA) will be a good option here with its capacity of (60) million tonnes per year of high-grade ore exports," Gao said.
While the value of investment remains undisclosed, China Baowu is expected to get a major stake in WCS.
Johnston said the entry of China Baowu as a shareholder in WCS links the steel giant directly to the mine, which is a form of vertical integration.
Moore at the Centre for Global Development said the close links between industry and government in China were an indication that "China Baowu Steel is acting on signalling from the central government".
This from a SCMP article of 29th Oct 23 which I have just found outside a paywall. My edits:
WHY CHINESE INTEREST IS SOARING IN WEST AFRICAN GUINEA'S SIMANDOU IRON ORE RESERVES
A massive untapped iron ore mine in West Africa has shot up China's list of belt and road priorities as it pushes to cut reliance on Australia and Brazil for the mineral essential to steel production.
Observers say the Guinean iron ore will help China diversify its suppliers to avoid excessive dependence on Australia amid strained ties in recent years, as well as its drive to achieve resource security and to decarbonise the steel value chain since Simandou offers higher-grade ore.
"China's feud with Australia and desire to diversify its sources changed the economics of the project. In a way, China's desire for access to resources at source has not changed," Moore said, referring to Beijing's angry reaction to Canberra's previous government calling for an international investigation into the origin of the coronavirus, with tariffs imposed on several Australian products including wine. Relations have since eased somewhat under Anthony Albanese, Australia's new prime minister.
Lauren Johnston, a China-Africa researcher at the South African Institute of International Affairs in Johannesburg, said China's goal in the massive Simandou investment was higher quality ore development.
"[Chinese] President Xi Jinping launched a plan [on the Brics summit margins] in Johannesburg in August to foster African industrialisation - perhaps the plan is also to use Simandou's ore for this plan too," Johnston said.
She said because Zimbabwe is about to inaugurate Africa's largest steel mill, perhaps some of the ore from Simandou will go there as well. Chinese steel giant Tsingshan Holding Group is building a US$1 billion iron and steel plant in Zimbabwe through subsidiary firm Dinson Iron and Steel.
Gao of CRU Group highlighted China's aim to diversify its iron ore suppliers to avoid dependence on Australia and Brazil, which account for 82 per cent of global seaborne iron ore exports.
She said though low-grade ores are in high demand now, the steel industry's aim to decarbonise the sector will lead to a growing demand for higher-grade ores.
"Simandou will be a good option here with its capacity of 120 million tonnes per year of high-grade ore exports," Gao said.
While the value of investment remains undisclosed, China Baowu is expected to get a major stake in WCS.
Johnston said the entry of China Baowu as a shareholder in WCS links the steel giant directly to the mine, which is a form of vertical integration.
Moore at the Centre for Global Development said the close links between industry and government in China were an indication that "China Baowu Steel is acting on signalling from the central government".
https://shorturl.at/syJZ3
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3239571/why-chinese-interest-soaring-west-african-guineas-simandou-iron-ore-reserves
Gold and BTC go to record highs.
Fiat getting dumped, buying physicals and digitals.
> Time for Gulf States and China to divest of dollars - and into commodity resources that cannot be debased and diluted.
Recall from January 2023 that Manara Minerals is specifically tasked with securing iron ore (high grade) for Saudi Arabia's green steel expansion. This from the start of the week. Deals to come....
(Ma'aden CEO) Wilt expects the company to intensively expand its prospecting and exploration activities in 2024.
Regarding the company’s projects outside the Kingdom, the joint project with the Public Investment Fund (PIF) to establish Manara Minerals will provide the desired framework for investment in global mining assets and ensure access to strategic minerals that will undoubtedly support the sustainable growth of the Kingdom.
The company made its first investment during the year in Vale and will make more similar investments during 2024 and beyond.
https://www.argaam.com/en/article/articledetail/id/1708043?IRAccessToken=sipchem
Hydrogen unleashed: Opportunities and challenges in the evolving H2-DRI-EAF pathway beyond 2024
February 27, 2024
'While hydrogen use in ironmaking based on the DR process makes sense to produce low-emissions steel, there are specific hurdles that must be overcome to facilitate this shift. The foremost challenges include ensuring an adequate supply of DR-grade iron ore, and establishing a sustainable green hydrogen value chain for steel production.'
and
'H2-DRI-EAF represents a narrative of allocating limited resources to create valuable products. Currently, green hydrogen comes at a high cost, and there is a scarcity of DR-grade iron ore. By judiciously allocating these two resources to green steel facilities, and with the backing of supportive yet rigorous regulations, the transition to green steel can continue to gain momentum in 2024.'
https://ieefa.org/resources/hydrogen-unleashed-opportunities-and-challenges-evolving-h2-dri-eaf-pathway-beyond-2024
PSEI's reference is to Congo Resources, so I'm not sure that I find anything of the sort - certainly not within any of the links given. Meanwhile:
November 2023 :
The African Export–Import Bank (Afreximbank) has signed on Saturday a $96 million term sheet with Sapro Mayoko, one of the leading iron ore producer and exporter in the Republic of Congo.
THE TRADE FACILITY LIES UNDER AFREXIMBANK’S IRON ORE MINE DEVELOPMENT FACILITY PROGRAMME.
'The facility will enable Sapro Mayoko to increase its production and export capacity, and to improve the quality and efficiency of its operations. It will also support the development of the iron ore sector in the Republic of Congo, which is one of the largest and most untapped sources of iron ore in the continent.'
https://en.amwalalghad.com/afreximbank-signs-96-million-trade-facility-with-congos-sapro-mayoko/
Given the above, and this from ZIOC in September 2022:
'Significant engagement underway with other mining project developers in RoC to explore potential collaboration opportunities, especially in relation to logistics solutions and alternatives for upgrades to existing infrastructure.'
And this from PSEI from May 2018:
> Congo Resources Inc., Iron Ore Project, Republic of Congo - Feasibility study for the entire project, including mining, beneficiation, pipeline transportation (250Km long and 20 MTA), harbor and hydropower stations.
> Glengore’s Zanaga Iron Ore Project, Republic of Congo – Bankable Feasibility Study for the pipeline transportation (350Km long and 30 MTA)
then, on balance, PSEI are likely referring to Sapro-Mayoko.
Well, well - What do we have here?
PSEI are very likely to be our EPC on beneficiation and pipelines. They were named checked in the BFS in 2014 and image searches match their PR with ZIOC's latest presentation. Hidden on their website are details of 2 Congolese projects, Zanaga and another with a slurry pipe some 100kms shorter. That can *ONLY* be Mayoko:
FROM MAY 2018:
PSEI IS CURRENTLY WORKING ON THE FOLLOWING SLURRY PIPELINE PROJECTS (FEASIBILITY STUDY, BASIC DESIGN AND DETAILED DESIGN, CONSTRUCTION MANAGEMENT, START-UP AND COMMISSIONING) - (AMONGST MANY):
> Congo Resources Inc., Iron Ore Project, Republic of Congo - Feasibility study for the entire project, including mining, beneficiation, pipeline transportation (250Km long and 20 MTA), harbor and hydropower stations.
> Glengore’s Zanaga Iron Ore Project, Republic of Congo – Bankable Feasibility Study for the pipeline transportation (350Km long and 30 MTA)
https://psei.co/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/PSEI2018_SOQ.pdf
SEPT 2022
In 2022 ZIOC revealed the following:
> Significant engagement underway with other mining project developers in RoC to explore potential collaboration opportunities, especially in relation to logistics solutions and alternatives for upgrades to existing infrastructure
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/ZIOC/interim-results-5ifwptotddk9sle.html
>> Given the 2 statements, and logically, ZIOC's 'Significant engagement underway with other mining project developers in RoC' must be Mayoko, and the ' collaboration opportunities' likely encompass the full spectrum of services that PSEI detail for 'Congolese Resources'.
>> Hugely significant if, as we suspect, Mayoko is owned by Nguesso interests, and are now being chaperoned by ZIOC's development capabilities.
Me too, 99icecream.
Exploiting the copious natural gas coming ashore at Pointe Noire makes sense for pellet production. Why ship pellet feed (Zanaga's high grade) *AND* natural gas half way round the world to China when you can produce the finished product and then ship - plus it would open up the European and Middle Eastern markets for Baowu.
Now the scramble will be to do something similar in the ME, or perhaps PN still, and then ship the low-carbon product into Europe and duck underneath the looming carbon taxes.
It all fits nicely.
Of note and topically is that Big D opened ENI's new LNG facility at Pointe Noire just yesterday...
Ah - that is very interesting, Guffers, Thank You. What happened to COIDIC, and when, was a mystery and that fills in the blank very nicely.
Baowu could and should be a much more useful partner and, I reckon, will be part of the strategic investor deal to be announced before the end of this quarter.
Well, this is very interesting, with all sorts on implications and rabbit holes. I'm not sure I recall reading about Baowu's interest in Pointe Noire:
(translated)
TECHNICAL MEETING OF SEPTEMBER 10, 2021 BY VIDEO CONFERENCE.
The working session was led by Mr. Frédéric MANIENZE, Director of Cabinet of the Minister of SEZ and Economic Diversification.
A technical meeting was held this Friday, Sept 10, 2021 in the meeting room of the Ministry of SEZ and Economic Diversification between the Congolese party composed of executives from the Ministry of SEZ and Economic Diversification, assisted by the representative of the ministry in charge of territorial planning, two representatives of the ministry in charge of finance, a representative of the ministry of hydrocarbons, the outgoing ambassador of the Republic of Congo to China, the new ambassador of Congo to China and the Chinese party composed of representatives of Cad fund and the General Director of the China Baowu Company with his team.
The meeting focused mainly on the redefinition of the position of CAD Fund regarding its commitment to the development of area A of the SEZ of Pointe-Noire, in particular the position of COIDIC mandated by it for this purpose and the presentation of the China Baowu Company (its identity and ambitions for the Republic of Congo).
https://www.facebook.com/zes.gouv.cg/posts/reunion-technique-du-10-septembre-2021-par-visio-conf%25C3%25A9rencela-s%25C3%25A9ance-de-travail-/3035117346773526/
> If I am reading this correctly, Baowu's interest in Pointe Noire *must* have been in constructing a steel mill - (given that ZIOC had scoped out all the land necessary for iron ore dewatering and then landslide activities for the port).
> This implies that Baowu must know all about Zanaga and the efforts to develop.
> The meeting was a teleconference (in the middle of COVID insanity). AT revealed in late 2022 that engagement had restarted with Chinese entities who had been prevented from travelling outside of China.
>> There is one other possibility - that Baowu were working on development at Mayoko, and this meeting was in some way parallel to Zanaga possibilities/optionalities. In which case, recall this from ZIOC in September 2022:
'Significant engagement underway with other mining project developers in RoC to explore potential collaboration opportunities, especially in relation to logistics solutions and alternatives for upgrades to existing infrastructure.'
>> In the meantime Baowu and Chinalco are currently delaying their F.I.D.s on Simandou until 'hopefully in March', according to Rio's CEO.
Hmmmmm
From Africa Intelligence this morning ($12.50)
The UK-Australian giant has been busy selecting subcontractors and discussing the sale price of iron with its Chinese buyers as it awaits its partner Chinalco's financial commitment to the project, hopefully in March. Rio Tinto has also been in talks with the Guinean junta.
https://www.africaintelligence.com/west-africa/2024/02/26/rio-tinto-puts-finishing-touches-to-simandou-mining-project,110184137-art
4 parallels of note:
1. 'The UK-Australian giant has been busy selecting subcontractors...'
> Exactly what Marty is currently doing,
2. '...and discussing the sale price of iron with its Chinese buyers ...'
> This is ZIOC's '...market enquiry and financial modelling phase 2...' from The 28th Dec RNS,
3. '...it awaits its partner Chinalco's financial commitment to the project...'
> Chinalco are dragging their feet, ostensibly waiting on Beijing to sign off their Simandou investment. Chinalco own 15% of Rio and so already have some exposure to Simandou.
>> They do have an alternative. Zanaga.
4. '...hopefully in March.'
> Clifford Elphick, ZIOC's CEO, September 2023: 'Following the acquisition of full ownership and control of the Zanaga Project we are now engaging with strategic entities interested in participating in the Zanaga Project, and intend on securing a selected partner by the end of Q1 2024".'
>> Uncanny, huh?!!