Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
With thanks to V1 for this link. Could the new quays at PAPN facilitate Zanaga's EPP? A quay to accommodate bulk carries and mineral ships, and with work to be completed by 2024. Would certainly fit.
Begun in July 2021, the construction of these two infrastructures responds to the desire of the port authority to ensure that the PAPN meets the new requirements of maritime transport. Indeed, the aim of the port is to have, at the end of the work, a 250m long multi-bulk quay with a depth of 12.5m and a part deepened to -16m. This quay is intended to accommodate cereal ships and other bulk carriers, as well as mineral ships in anticipation of the resumption of activities in this economic sector.
https://maritimafrica.com/en/papn-construction-of-two-maritime-quays-progressing-perfectly-and-could-be-completed-by-september-2024/
...and a mineral port!
From a few minutes back:
THIS EXTENSION IS PLANNED TO ACCOMMODATE VARIOUS PROJECTS, INCLUDING MINING, STEEL...
Ministère des Zones Economiques Spéciales
16m ·
During a video conference held on Tuesday, March 26, 2024, the Minister of Special Economic Zones, Jean Marc-THYSTERE TCHICAYA, met with Madame Adama Dian, the resident representative of the UNDP, accompanied by several experts. The meeting sought to discuss the CAPITAL concept project for Congo, an effort to support the ZES, introduced by Ms Sandrine LETENO of the UNDP. The discussions covered four main topics: the effective implementation of the Pointe-Noire ZES, the development of a strategic plan and roadmap for the operations of the ZES, the initiation of learning missions within the ZES, and the development of a strategy for solar energy.
During these dialogues, the Minister of ZES showed great receptivity and stressed the size of the area, which covers an area of 2940 hectares. This extension is planned to accommodate various projects, including a mining, steel, and petrochemical complex, tourist activities, and a mineral port, thereby reflecting the diversity and ambition of the project.
https://www.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=742287498083083&id=100069055185359&mibextid=WC7FNe&checkpoint_src=any
2 articles in just the last couple of hours. China and the USA both driving for green steel.
Zanaga development just has to be a dead cert - it's just when and for how much.
1. CHINA’S NEW 2027 “GREEN CONSTRUCTION” TARGET TO BOOST DOMESTIC STEEL DECARBONIZATION
March 25, 2024
https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/chinas-new-2027-green-construction-target-to-boost-domestic-steel-decarbonization/
2. $1 BILLION IN FEDERAL INVESTMENTS FOR CLEANER STEEL
Published 25th March, 2024
https://www.steeltimesint.com/news/1-billion-in-federal-investments-for-cleaner-steel
Those last 2 updates came on the last full trading days of each quarter; 3Q23 on 29th Sept and 4Q23 on 28th Dec..
If the company are consistent, as they usually are, then we can expect our update this Thursday, 28th March.
And, as per 28th Dec, any update could and should cover everything, '... the comprehensive nature of the update.'
29th September 2023:
· Key milestone objectives through to the end of Q1 2024 include:
o Feasibility Study update - End 2023
o Hydro power partnership - Q1 2024 (Memorandum of Understanding)
o Port partnership - Q1 2024 (Memorandum of Understanding)
o Strategic partner initiative - Q1 2024 (Memorandum of Understanding)
Clifford Elphick, Non-Executive Chairman of ZIOC, commented:
"During the first half of 2023, ZIOC launched a process with its Chinese EPC Partner to secure Chinese contractor pricing and to update the cost estimates of the 30Mtpa Feasibility Study, while also considering the application of new iron ore processing technology to reduce estimated costs further. This is a completely different exercise to the study work conducted by consulting firms in the past, as the Chinese EPC Partner is a constructor and developer of iron ore mining projects, with specific expertise in slurry pipelines and pellet feed concentrate processing. We look forward to concluding the process by year end.
Furthermore, port infrastructure discussions are underway with a large port infrastructure development firm seeking to expand the existing port of Pointe-Noire. Consideration is also being given to potential development solutions for a large bulk mineral port capable of supporting the 30Mtpa staged development project.
Following the acquisition of full ownership and control of the Zanaga Project we are now engaging with strategic entities interested in participating in the Zanaga Project, and intend on securing a selected partner by the end of Q1 2024".
This was mildly amended on 28th December 2023:
· Chinese EPC Partner FS update progress
o The initial review and re-costing phase of the 2014 Feasibility Study ("2014 FS") has been completed, indicating potential cost reductions versus the 2014 FS.
o The market enquiry and financial modelling phase 2 is underway and will now be extended into Q1 2024 given the comprehensive nature of the update.
BHP's Mike Henry tries to make excuses and buy time for Chinese steel mills to convert to green steel.
This, by the most extraordinary coincidence, would also suit BHP's multi-billion dollar mountain of dirty low grade Pilbara junk which otherwise would become stranded.
Nice try, Mike.
https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/bhp-s-mike-henry-argues-chinese-steelmakers-deserve-a-break-20240324-p5fetw
It's a flood now as analysts and commentators finally starting seeing the China - Australia - DRI strategic shift. All eyes on high grade, and that'll be Zanaga any moment now.....
CHINA, DECARBONISATION PRESENT AUSTRALIA'S IRON ORE MINERS WITH COSTLY CHOICES
By Clyde Russell
March 20, 2024
While Australia's iron ore miners may be able to offset the loss of some of China's demand by selling to newer steel producers in Southeast Asia, it's likely that the overall market for iron ore will soon decline.
It's also likely to change in composition, with higher grades of iron ore preferred as these can be more easily used as a feedstock along with scrap in electric arc furnaces.
Higher grades of iron ore can also more easily be upgraded into direct reduction iron (DRI), which in turn can be turned into steel without using coal as a fuel.
Making steel using DRI produced with green hydrogen and renewable energy is one of the ways the industry is thinking of reducing carbon emissions.
Even using natural gas to make DRI can reduce emissions by up to 75%.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/china-decarbonisation-present-australias-iron-ore-miners-with-costly-choices-2024-03-20/
It's a race for green steel as car makers look to swerve carbon taxes:
MERCEDES-BENZ INKS GREEN STEEL SUPPLY DEAL WITH NUCOR
Mercedes-Benz has signed its second deal with a major US steel producer to supply greener steel in hopes of reaching decarbonization goals by the year 2039, the German automaker announced on Wednesday March 20
“Mercedes-Benz has always been driven by a belief in tomorrow,” chief executive officer Ola Källenius said in the Mercedes release. “This pioneering spirit is key so we can play our part in climate protection and to make our business even more sustainable in all respects. We continue to strive for net carbon-neutrality by 2039, and we believe that ESG principles enable long-term value creation.”
https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/mercedes-benz-inks-green-steel-supply-deal-with-nucor/
Ockham's razor
Right on cue, here are Reuters detailing the Chinese problem....'if you can get enough of the iron ore pellets that go into the top of them. There is only a limited supply right now,'
CHINA LAGS IN EFFORTS TO ACHIEVE 2025 GREEN STEEL GOALS, ANALYSTS SAY
By Amy Lv and David Stanway
March 19, 20242:29 AM GMT Updated 14 hours ago
Boosting scrap supply, or switching to hydrogen-based direct reduced iron (DRI) as an alternative feedstock, will be critical to the success of EAF in China.
DRI is a cleaner way of turning iron ore into iron, which can then be processed into pellets that can be used in EAF.
"DRI cuts about 70-80% of the emissions but it depends if you can get enough of the iron ore pellets that go into the top of them. There is only a limited supply right now," said Chris Bataille, an expert in decarbonising "hard to abate" sectors at Columbia University.
Bataille said it was possible for China to produce three quarters of its total steel via EAF by 2050, once they have built the necessary infrastructure and the feedstock supplies.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/china-lags-efforts-achieve-2025-green-steel-goals-analysts-say-2024-03-19/
I don't think 'China' are able to set the pace of iron ore developments. in part because of the timescale that their Central Gov has set and in part because of external pressures.
CHINA PLANS SHARP INCREASE IN OVERSEAS IRON ORE OUTPUT BY 2025
Reuters | March 1, 2022
China plans to raise its equity output of iron ore in overseas mines to 220 million tonnes by 2025 as well as increase domestic raw material supplies, state-backed China Metallurgical News said on Tuesday.
China aims to “fundamentally” solve the shortage issue in steelmaking ingredients in 10-15 years, Luo Tiejun, the vice-chairman of the China Iron and Steel Association, was quoted as saying, citing what he called a “cornerstone plan”.
The plan, which the steel body said in January it had submitted to the state planner, industry ministry, natural resources ministry and environmental regulator, was designed to secure steel resources in the medium- to long-term.
It proposes raising China’s share of overseas iron ore production from 120 million tonnes in 2020 to 220 million tonnes by 2025, according to Luo.
https://www.mining.com/web/china-plans-sharp-increase-in-overseas-iron-ore-output-by-2025-state-media/
These targets for 2025 were set in 2021/22. Since then 2 huge external drivers have emerged; the drive for green steel from Net Zero and associated carbon border taxes PLUS the increased tensions over Taiwan.
> So from both internally set targets and external pressures I can only see China looking to secure overseas strategic iron ore reserves ex-Australia just as soon as possible.
At first sight it looks like 2x 100,000 shorts have been rolled over today.
The rationale being is that the BUYS came before their paired SELLS, and at a higher rate each time.
Cont...
In summary, the Chinese FM arrives tomorrow in Canberra for high stakes 'trade talks' based on regional security in Asia-Pacific. Specifically the issue is whether Australia will be in China's camp over Taiwan (where the US has just permanently based special forces) or whether it will remain in the Anglosphere.
Australian failure to side with China will see China go all out to secure iron ore supplies ex-Australia - as BHP's CEO detailed yesterday.
...and ZIOC have stated their 'intention to select a strategic partner by the end of Q1 2024' - which is next Thursday.
Cont...
CHINA VISIT SEES $105 BILLION IRON ORE EXPORTS ON THE BRINK
March 19, 2024 - 4:43PM
China is sending its foreign minister to Australia, insisting that “win-win” co-operation is the “right choice”. But, at the same time, it’s emphasising a desire to end Australia’s biggest “win” – $105 billion worth of iron ore exports.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi arrives in Canberra tomorrow for trade talks..
“There is no justification for such economically interdependent nations to fall victim to unfounded notions of ‘decoupling’ or an imagined ‘new Cold War’.”
But the Beijing-controlled South China Morning Post (SCMP) has emphasised ahead of Wang’s visit how Beijing is doing exactly that.
It details how China plans to break its dependency on Australian iron ore because it remained a “US security partner”. “Therefore, diversifying supply sources has both an economic and a national security imperative,” the article asserts.
BHP told shareholders Monday that new Chinese-backed iron ore suppliers were already challenging Australia’s dominance in the market. IT EXPECTS MUCH GREATER COMPETITION TO EMERGE AS THE DECADE UNFOLDS.
BHP chief executive Mike Henry pointed to the impact of new Chinese-owned-and-operated nickel mines in Indonesia as an example of what may be in store for iron.
https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/mining/china-visit-sees-105-billion-iron-ore-exports-on-the-brink/news-story/a95bd4ee337722c1487862c2ab8e0bda
Cont...
This was from 2021:
BUT BEIJING’S BATTLE WITH AUSTRALIA HAS MADE THE SUPPLY OF IRON ORE NOT JUST AN ISSUE OF PRICE. WITH TALK OF WAR IN THE AIR, IT IS ONE OF NATIONAL SECURITY.
If Australia were to cut supplies off now, for example, the construction sector in China, the core of the economy, would struggle to stay afloat.
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/revealed-china-s-plan-wean-itself-australian-iron-ore
and this is now:
US GREEN BERETS REPORTEDLY PERMANENTLY BASED IN TAIWAN FOR 1ST TIME
American military advisors stationed in Army amphibious bases in Kinmen and Penghu
By Keoni Everington, Taiwan News, Staff Writer
2024/03/02 18:37
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/5106211
Change of plan
I think this might be about to decide Zanaga's furture:
REVEALED: CHINA’S PLAN TO WEAN ITSELF OFF AUSTRALIAN IRON ORE
For a China determined to punish Australia, the windfall gains delivered to Canberra from surging iron ore prices are intolerable.
To call it ironic doesn’t quite capture the moment. Just as Beijing is punishing Australia with trade sanctions, sales of the one commodity the Chinese can’t target, iron ore, are delivering billions in windfall gains to miners, their shareholders and the government in Canberra.
Iron ore exports have broken records for volumes and prices in recent months, largely because of the strong rebound in the Chinese economy and the lack of alternative suppliers for the country’s steel makers.
The iron ore boom has also had a less noticed political impact, bolstering confidence in the government and among commentators that Australia can ride out Chinese trade sanctions without substantial damage.
Individual winemakers and lobster producers may have had their export businesses wiped out, so the argument goes, but iron ore and other commodities are more than making up the difference.
The iron ore trade, in that respect, is stiffening the resolve of the Morrison government in dealing with Beijing, because the cost of resisting trade coercion is minimal on the broader economy.
For a China determined to punish Australia, this is intolerable. What, then, are Beijing’s options to wind back the benefits from the iron ore trade?
Beijing’s longer-term options are obvious: to find more supplies, a task the government is working on with a feverishness absent during the days of smooth Sino-Australian relations.
BUT BEIJING’S BATTLE WITH AUSTRALIA HAS MADE THE SUPPLY OF IRON ORE NOT JUST AN ISSUE OF PRICE. WITH TALK OF WAR IN THE AIR, IT IS ONE OF NATIONAL SECURITY.
IF AUSTRALIA WERE TO CUT SUPPLIES OFF NOW, FOR EXAMPLE, THE CONSTRUCTION SECTOR IN CHINA, THE CORE OF THE ECONOMY, WOULD STRUGGLE TO STAY AFLOAT.
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/revealed-china-s-plan-wean-itself-australian-iron-ore
The media is starting to detail China's strategy of securing iron ore outside of Australia, specifically in Africa. Yesterday the SCMP name checked Congo-Brazzaville (Mbalam-Nabeba) and Simandou, amongst others.
It can only be a matter of time before Zanaga joins the list...
CHINA IS PLANNING TO BREAK ITS DEPENDENCY ON AUSTRALIA AND BRAZIL FOR IRON ORE. AFRICA IS THE KEY
(edited)
China has a number of iron ore projects in the works in Africa as part of its ‘foundation plan’ to de-risk its supply of the mineral
For now, the country relies heavily on Australia and Brazil, which supply the vast majority of the world’s iron ore
More than 80 per cent of China’s iron ore comes from Australia and Brazil but Beijing wants to de-risk that supply. And the West African nation, along with other countries including Guinea, Liberia, Cameroon and Congo-Brazzaville, are the key to making that happen.
Meanwhile, in neighbouring Guinea, after 27 years of false starts, Chinese investors together with British-Australian mining giant Rio Tinto, are on track to make their first shipment from the Simandou iron ore mine next year. Simandou is the world’s largest-known undeveloped reserve of high-grade iron ore.
Chinese companies are also investing in the Mbalam-Nabeba project, which will develop large-scale iron ore deposits that straddle Cameroon and neighbouring Congo-Brazzaville in central-west Africa.
These are just some of the mining projects in Africa which observers say form part of China’s iron ore “foundation plan”, which aims to address the vulnerability of its reliance on Australia and Brazil for the resource.
“The massive investment overseas is a part of China’s long-pursued goal of enhancing its position in the global iron ore trade by taking a larger ownership stake in overseas iron ore supply,” Gao said. “At present, we estimate that there is Chinese ownership in around 5 per cent of global iron ore supply.”
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3255471/china-planning-break-its-dependency-australia-and-brazil-iron-ore-africa-key
Another piece detailing Australia's major iron ore problem. Their grades just don't cut it for DRI and green steel. Zanaga's do. It **WILL** collectively dawn on the industry and Mr Market.
Two weeks until the end of Q1 and our projected 'milestone' news flow.
Tick Tock.
Australia’s biggest earner faces an uncertain future. “Dig it and ship it” won’t cut it anymore. And if we don’t add “refine it” to the iron ore equation within just 20 years – global steelmakers will take their chequebooks elsewhere .... “Our competitors – countries such as Brazil and Guinea with higher-grade ores in relative abundance – are positioned to become the steel industry’s suppliers of choice,” warns RMIT University lecturer and Wuhan University of Science and Technology adjunct professor Dr Charlie Huang .... That’s because they can offer the world’s steelmakers what they need: an off-ramp in the face of rapidly escalating global tariffs designed to punish carbon dioxide emitting industries .... “The Australian iron ore industry faces a major challenge as its biggest customers – China’s steel mills – move to drastically reduce their carbon footprint,” warns Dr Huang .... Solutions are being sought. And being found. But the quality of Australian iron ore is part of the problem .... Beijing has, in recent years, already been seeking to reduce its reliance on Australian iron ore. Now, it’s looking towards “greener” pastures as a first step in adapting to Europe’s stringent standards .... Bulk ore shipments out of Brazil and Guinea generally contain about 65 per cent iron. Australian ore now varies anywhere between 56 and 62 per cent .... Bulk ore shipments out of Brazil and Guinea generally contain about 65 per cent iron. Australian ore now varies anywhere between 56 and 62 per cent .... BUT TO PRODUCE STEEL THESE FURNACES NEED PRE-PROCESSED IRON ORE PELLETS WITH PURITY LEVELS ABOVE 67.5 PER CENT – HIGHER THAN EVEN THE BEST NATURAL HEMATITE DEPOSITS.
https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/mining/australias-biggest-export-on-the-brink-of-30-billion-loss/news-story/3954280b4c701f53ad9da4a5d6a3bf3b
> Zanaga's Phase 2 magnetite will come at 69%+ for a blended pellet feed product of 67.5%, making the magical DRI grade, the avoidance of carbon taxes and thus long term premiums.
Tick Tock.
This reads as if the Saudis are prepping the market for news:
INSIDE SAUDI ARABIA’S PLAN TO DOMINATE MINING
Mar 13, 2024, 3:53pm GMT
Saudi Arabia sees vast riches beyond oil within its reach. The kingdom’s broad-ranging ambition, a top mining official told Semafor, is to extract the more than $2.5 trillion in metals in its soil, invest in minerals extraction around the world, and capture as much of the minerals value chain as possible.
“Saudi Arabia is being transformed. Through this transformation we want to be an economic powerhouse,” Khalid al-Mudaifer, the vice minister for mining, said. “To be an industrial [power], we need minerals. To build projects, we need minerals. Therefore, mining of Saudi Arabia [is] the first step, bringing minerals from outside is the second step, third step is to build Saudi Arabia as a hub.”
Mudaifer is a minerals specialist — he has been vice minister for mining since 2018, and for the seven years prior he ran Saudi Arabia’s state mining company Ma’aden..
International targets
Despite Saudi Arabia’s huge aspirations and potentially huge scale, Mudaifer acknowledged that “whatever we mine in Saudi Arabia will not be enough for Saudi Arabia,” because while the kingdom holds large concentrations of certain resources, other ones critical for manufacturing such as nickel, cobalt, and lithium are found elsewhere. That prompted the kingdom to establish its Manara Minerals fund, a state-backed venture that aims to increase Riyadh’s access to minerals worldwide and potentially help funnel them to processing facilities in Saudi Arabia. One of its earliest investments so far has been to take a 10% stake in a copper and nickel-focused spinoff of the Brazilian mining giant Vale.
https://www.semafor.com/article/03/13/2024/inside-saudi-arabias-plan-to-take-over-the-mining-industry