Member Info for millsm

Hopefully we will see a little confidence in the share building now as it shows some resilience. If the BOD set out some estimated start dates for current projects that might demonstrate a solid road map. Wouldn’t take much to swing this around.

If the BOD gave this a little boost with some positive news and update on project progress the volume means it would move up pretty quickly. Wouldn’t take much to give this a second lease of life.

Just no interest in it now, no volume no buzz just Flatlining to death at the moment. Unless the BOD give it a news shock it will slip away to nothing. Sad but true.

Let’s see what happens when we wake up tomorrow after the overnight KK trading. It seemed it turned a corner on Friday. Whatever anchor was holding it back seemed to to release and it definitely stabilised, maybe that will be the bottom gone and it’s starting to rebuilt. Only time will tell but their is no reason why it won’t bounce back as quickly as it dropped.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/ethanol

A little patience and this will recover IMO as what has happened is very annoying but doesn’t change the value of the company other than on paper for the SP. it’s still profitable, still expanding and has money in the bank to fund its growth over the next two years. All of this will convert into profits and even with the rough start thus week eventually this will turn to value. The only danger at these low prices is that the BOD & Chairman could look at Buying out share holders at an offer rather than constantly fighting the SP (as it doesn’t seem to get good traction on the market). They own 50% of the shares already which are worth about £15M at the current price and if they could raise a loan to buy the rest at say £16-18M on an offer they have half that value in the bank within the company already after the IPO. Someone needs to check my maths but this is the danger of a valuable asset being under priced IMO.

Your broker needs the new certificates before anything can be traded so it’s going to take a couple of weeks at the earliest.

They’d be better to say if the loan has been sold down even if they messed up on the deal. At least investors would know it’s a one off and can move on. As they are effectively getting 2:1 on the original IPO price this has to be a bargain as it’s not going to slip anymore now IMO. At the end of the day it’s still a company worth 12-15p minimum per share. Just need to see it pick up on Monday and Tuesday and it will be a good bet it recovers in the next few weeks. The only downside would come if AIM transfers start to sell to early until its reached a descent level with volume trading.

At least they recognise they need to do something quickly

Regardless of Double River if they have dumped their shares (doing what you’d expect from an investment loan company which is looking after number one). The fundamental value of the company hasn’t changed that was set out in the prospectus which still looks very very solid. The volume is so low at the moment after that first wave of sells that any good news will see the share rebound very very quickly. The BOD definitely need to improve on their communications now they are Trading closer to home as they did a poor job on AIM. Let’s see what happens by close of trading today on the SP as it’s a key number going into the weekend that we see the small rebound this morning pick up a little momentum. As a couple of million buys would see this rise very quickly now IMO. Clarity is needed if Double River are the big seller as that should be declared as they had a inside track on the move to HK. A few BOD buys wouldn’t go a miss either as the SP isn’t going to drop any lower and would show some confidence in the company. It’s a tricky one as on reflection they should have paid the loan Off and taken the IPO value from the over subscribers. But this move was delayed initially so maybe Double River was holding them to ransom to get the stock deal instead. Only positive is that if they are out they are out and the SP can recover slowly. News from the BOD is key now as currently the BOD are looking a little stupid in an absolutely horrendous start on the HKEX.

Shares Traded in the first two days volume 128,472,000 and Double River were given 23,929,502 that if they have sold down would have got around 50-60% premium on the £1.18m they were owed so probably cashed in at £1.8M on there loan. I am sure they would have no issues with dumping the SP at all to get that level of return and take the risk to zero for them. If you balance the volume in buys and sells over the last two days they would equate to half of the sells that's demolished the share price IMO. It's not as if the company are going to need a loan any time soon as they have just loaded up with cash from the IPO so Double River aren't going to be worrying about future loans.

This was the statement in the IPO deal sheet.

Pursuant to the convertible loan agreement with Double River Limited, as announced on 30 April 2020, the Company has also issued 23,924,502 ordinary shares representing 4.34 per cent. of the enlarged issued share capital, at a price of approximately HK$ 0.481 (approximately 4.9p) to convert the Double River loan of HKD11,500,000 (approximately £1.18m) into equity.

Just my take on things as it assumes this was Double River selling down in the first couple of days, the fact the second day didn't see a further drops after the first couple of hours it might suggest its potentially rolled through now, but it's left investors wary based on a large value drop. But hopefully a few buys see it pick up again and without a large seller in the background could move up quickly. Fingers crossed we see a nice bounce back soon.

Look its hard not to be disappointed as this should be at 10-12p easily based on the company performance to this point and closer to 15-20p based on its opportunity and future prospects. It's hard to tell why its been sold down other than double river dumping its holdings that it got cheap. But with the potential market growth and company market share set against its ability to deliver solid profits it will get there sooner rather than later IMO. I am not selling for a long time yet so its a no brainer to wait a watch it start to build back up to a more realistic share price point that actually reflects the companies value. It's odd that its dropped but that's stocks and shares for you and I am sure we will have some positive movement upwards return very soon.

It will reach a point where it’s where it will make investors money and it will swing as quickly in the other direction. Personally just surprised on the volume out there that’s available to be sold down in the last few days. Where have they come from? It doesn’t take much volume to move it but they only released about 110m new shares out there as the rest should be locked in for a while. They have halved in value since the opening bell due to a persistent seller. Did someone in the UK collect up shares before the move and get their certificates sent on the 30th June ready to sell straight away. Maybe revenge on the AIM MMs

Not the same company as when this was a lower share price. It’s paid of it’s debt, has cash now for expansion and detailed it has orders ready to go that would deliver profits higher than the current MCAP (just in the next 12 months).

It’s a little odd they would let this be walked down due to the overall value of the company. Most of the shares are locked in so it’s either the overhang shares from AIM or Double River. There must be a point where some clued up investors see the company value And profits and think we’ll have a few of those. The company is sound and successful so to be honest something doesn’t add up here at the moment. I am sure some patience (not that we have a choice) will see this find a more representative price.

This might help tomorrow if anyone is doing their homework as it dropped a lot leading into the first days trading, nice recovery today.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/ethanol#:~:text=Ethanol%20is%20expected%20to%20trade,0.79%20in%2012%20months%20time.

Not sure on the HKEX what your holding would need to be to have to declare yourself as a named investor, if Double River were still holding I am pretty sure they would need to declare themselves based on the volume they had. So if they don't show up as a HKEX equivalent RNS then they might well be long gone in that first hour.

If it was Double River that tripped this up today then at least it done and dusted and they are out at the cheaper entry price. That leaves it more representative of current PI's and larger investors purchase point so it ca only strengthen from here. This has to be driven by a marketing campaign now by the company and BOD in showing activity and project wins on a regular basis, this will highlight some key wins and progress to get the market excited (something they never did on AIM)

As its not traded online with AJ Bell I am not sure if it will show real time value on holdings moving forward (you would hope with technology it was a reasonable expectation). I have uploaded a HKEX app to give me views of the current price and can easily put it in a spreadsheet to see my portfolio value at any time. If I can find an app that can save it as a favourite and put my holdings in that would be ideal for the short term.

Only time will tell but if Double River did dump their shares this morning (over night in HK) them maybe paying off the loan and keeping the shares in the IPO offering might have been the better option. Or it was a UK seller that was cleaning out the old stock overhand from the shut down in AIM that flooded it with sells this morning, Like others I just can't see new investors selling up on the first day as that just wouldn't make sense at all (in creating their own loses). I am sure we will see a bounce back up soon enough as the BOD must have a few project wins ready to go soon.

But I would have thought a company that's debt free, profitable and cash in the bank for expansion was a Win/Win with the order book these guys have.