Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
"Have the Kurdish govt ever paid us their share of capex? I remember a vast amount was owed to us in the early days, but this may have come back to us via the oil sales. What's your take on this please?"
Hi Spireite
The Capex that the KRG owe GKP is complex and is one of the reasons the SP is under downward pressure. (the Market does not like negatives changes so marks down the SP)
a) When GKP announced that Shaikan was a "Commercial Discovery" on the 10th August 2012 . . . the KRG, GKP & MOL "should each have" started to pay their Share of the Shaikan Capex based on their NET Holdings in Shaikan. . . . AND . . . the original R-Factor under which "past Capex spending" would pay back to MOL & GKP their Capex Spend to Date "should have come into play" at the same time
https://ir.q4europe.com/solutions/GulfKeystone/3002/newsArticle.aspx?storyid=12274505
b) "But" the KRG in 2012 where not in a position to Pay their Share of the Shaikan Capex and nor where the KRG in a position to pay Back Costs by activating the Original R-Factor. (negative)
c) So original pre Commercial Discovery Share, 80% GKP & 20% MOL, of the Shaikan Capex remained in force and still does today. . . (negative)
As a stopgap an Agreement was made between the KRG, GKP & MOL, which changed the R-Factor so that "pre 10th August 2012" Capex Spending would be paid back alongside present "post 10th August 2012" Capex Spending. (negative to neutral)
The past Capex (pre 10th August 2012) was in the region of c. $700,000,000 and at a guess the post 10th August 2012 including present spending has to be in the region of c. $300,000,000
Taking into account "all" the Capex spending and how the "new" R-Factor is repaying past and present Capex Spending, I can't see GKP & MOL getting their Capex back "under the present" Shaikan 1st Amendment which is one of the reasons their needs to be a 2nd Shaikan Amendment.
No 2nd Amendment equals another negative mark against GKP
IMO the Shaikan Exploration & Production Licence is in a bloody mess and its all been caused by the KRG
"The issue is that you have all been fed a different narrative for so long now , you believe it."
There's only you feeding people with a continuous narrative of flowery rose coloured claims, while purposefully omitting all of what GKP is up against.
"The SP does not reflect the asset value of the Company"
Come on . . . tell us all "why" the SP does not reflect the Asset value.
Explain to us all why "in your own opinion" the Share Price which gives a Market Cap of 215,610,089 x 184p = £396,722,563 is wrong. . . . for instance . . . is my calculator wrong
We all are want to know "why" the Market has got the GKP Share Price wrong.
Come on surreyscot . . . the stage is yours
"The SP does not reflect the asset value of the Company.
So provide a truthful list of all the Pro's & Con's which make up the full list of GKP Fundamentals, and give us all in your opinion why the current Shares Price is 184p . . . and what the Share Price should be
"We have had this misleading argument a few times and always from the same individual."
There is nothing misleading with talking about the what downward pressures GKP effect GKP, and for that matter every other Stock on Stock Markets across the World are up against.
"IMO GKP has never been in a stronger financial position in terms of cash flow and product
I know GKP are in a strong Financial position, and its a bloody good job they are, otherwise the SP could be worse.
Come on. List out the pro's and con's for GKP, and be truthful rather than your using your usual flowery rose coloured less than truthful rubbish.
And this board is full of Ramping Trolls who tell people GKP the CPR is wrong and GKP is worth billions, and that a Takeover is imminent
Because of all the Ramping Trolls on the forum, mainly surreyscot who pushes his mantra GKP of GKP in a non risk world, many poor people have held onto their Shares are now holding GKP at a loss.
You can see surreyscot in action almost every day as he cut and pastes so called deramping posts from ADVFN and posts them on here to reinforce "his" view of GKP, then dissects them telling people why they are so wrong about GKP & Shaikan and GKP's worth
The facts are simple and speak for themselves.
Yesterday GKP closed at 184p, means after yesterday BuyBack GKP has a Market Cap of 215,610,089 x 184p = £396,722,563
I will agree that the Share Price "is being played to a certain extent" but I don't see very much evidence of large Buy Orders being processed for City Entities, and no Evidence of Short Selling, in fact quite the opposite as most of the Selling is being done by Auto Trades, which indicates that "margined share holders, CFD users or SP users" are selling.
With the GKP Licence in Kurdistan, who have been exporting for the last several years illegally, Production Payments being some what erratic, future Production Payments from the ICG to the KRG as yet unproven in regularity, Iraq itself having an amount of Iranian forces present causing upsets, Mullah's of different Shiite factions competing for power, a Government that is not supported by and cannot be agreed on by all the Shiite factions, Iraq proper is in a state of continuous flux, all adds to a negative Fundamental outlook for Licence Holders in Kurdistan.
All the above, and now with the addition of the Corona Virus, makes GKP a very risky Stock to hold, so naturally those holding GKP through margined products are selling out of all Risky Stocks, and as of today Fidessa shows the amounts of Automatic Trades have increased from Wednesdays Week High of 198.34p at 15.10.05 .
Thursdays and Fridays Volumes as GKP came off its 198.34p high to a close of 184p show the Sell off :-
https://www.screencast.com/t/eCwAmGK9g
Volumes across all Venues for Thursday and Friday were 4,242,237 and while some may be Buy trades by risk averse people, the majority would have been sells which has caused the Close @ 184p
Now I am certainly NOT advocating selling or anything like that, but unlike surreyscot and his Ramping crew of cohorts through their Rose Coloured Vision of GKP in a non risked world . . . I am warning you of the risks that investing your hard earnt money in GKP or any other such Stock represents . . .
I wont be selling a single share at these prices and not will I be sticking any more of my hard earnt into GKP, but for the risk averse brave out there, through careful watching of the price one might gain a good buy in price over the coming days.
Dodger.
My 2i account has never be hacked, but someone once logged on to ADVFN under mikey.admin avatar who was removed.
Other than that I have had no problems with my account here or on Interactive Investor, but having changed my PC I have lost my login details for ADVFN, though from what is transferred to this forum from AFVDN its no great loss.
For every action there is a reaction . . . LOL . . . and you're all fishing for reasons. . . Hilarious
" believe it is the original Mikey. He got ban or just left and then came back."
LSE337
Because the Ramping crew had taken over this forum in 2010/11 . . I requested that my account be closed, and it was, I was never banned.
I simply went over to Interactive Investor forum where it was a much better atmosphere then.
Then when the ii Forum change took place I asked the LSE to reinstate my membership and they did, with the same Login Details, Forum name, same phone number, same IP address, same home address, just a few years older.
But as proven today, the GKP ramping crew is still in control of this Forum and any conceived dissenting voice who refuses to toe the ramping line, causes the ramping trolls like knights to the GKP rescue to come out in force using every means at their disposal.
Normally I just sit and read this forum as it amuses me, but now and again like today I post something and hey presto out come the ramping trolls in force . . . and all to protect their own tidy rose coloured thoughts on GKP.
As my posts today have dragged in most of the Ramping Trolls it's been quite and hilarious experience plus its revealed some interesting data on the Rampers
"This certainly isn't the original Mikey T21".
It certainly is elbigbear, same person same name & login details as when I joined this Forum
But who are you . . . joined 1st August 2019 . . . so who are you a reincarnation of . . ????
"He's posting from his bike on Route 66 if you can remember that far back."
LSE337.
If I'd sold all my shares over 400p in February 2012 I would have toured the USA in 2012 or 2013
If I'd sold all my Shares in September 2018 @ 300p I'd have been very happy as well, especially if I'd bought back in the 170's in 2019
"Mikey, what price do you envisage (for fun) if/when the KRG start sending 250k bopd to Baghdad and Baghdad keep to their side of the agreement? IMO, you could then triple your figures."
To be honest, as an "agreement" between the KRG & the ICG will hopefully "not" change GKP's Production and Sales, I cannot see the "agreement making very much difference to GKP.
But by the same token, I would not expect an agreement to negatively effect GKP . . . unless of course the "agreement" changes the KRG's ability to pay GKP on time through loss of "timely" Payments from the ICG
What is your opinion as to GKP two year share price trajectory if they hit their production targets which are:-
2020 – 55k bopd
2022 – 75k bopd
Straycat . . . good question
Over the years GKP has been effected Market Conditions influences outside of Kurdistan & Iraq such as the Japanese tsunami & ISIS, which obviously changed the overall GKP Fundamentals that govern the Share Price.
As of this year, with the Corona Virus, there are a different set of circumstances in play that are effecting the "whole" of the Worlds Stock Markets, and GKP being a part of that Market is not immune to any part of what is happening, as the Corona Virus "has" automatically changed GKP's Fundamentals and how the Market views GKP.
So your question while straight forward inside of the "GKP bubble", cannot be easily answered without bearing in mind "outside the GKP bubble" Price changing influences, but to answer your question as best I can, rather than be drawn on a future price for GKP on 55k or 75k, I'd go as far as saying that I would expect . . and hope . . for a positive reaction from the Market. . . . but remember . . . overall Fundamental "influencers" both inside the "GKP bubble" and outside can change at a moments notice.
The thing is . . . is not to have your eye's shrouded by the pink glasses syndrome some people on here are effected by . . but to think freely, ignoring the pink glass peeps, about what really calls the shots with any Stock one risks one money in
"An even better question would be ....."
"Who wrote that post for you ?"
I didn't think it would be long till the biggest Ramping Troll would put in an appearance.
For your information surreyscot, I write everything myself and I am NOT lead by anyone in particular not by people of your ramptastic nature
I see the truth every time I open my Level 2 Platform and that DOES NOT lie and is NOT open to being persuaded by anyone of your ilk
www.screencast.com/t/OtHXb9bp
Last night GKP had a Market Cap of £410,472,656 as even you can see
If that does not tell you something then your brain is so fuddled by your own thoughts it's no longer working in a sane manner
"If you don’t hold and don’t believe in value but post here then can be only 2 reasons. One is bitterness or mental derision. Or the other is that you have a ulterior motive. "
I fully expected a retaliatory attack from someone who doesn't or refuses to understand Market forces that effect GKP
I do hold GKP Shares which I will happily sell when my Price is reach
I have no bitterness or mental derision and . . . other than trying to get people to understand what is happening . . . I have no ulterior motive for posting here.
I am neither a knocker or ramper . . . however I am a realist and I know that the Market makes allowances for every Fundamental constituent that will, does or can effect GKP . . and those Fundamentals set the Share Price via the Market.
I understand the Market forces that control the Share Price which you and many other can't grasp, and sadly there are many on here, led by a few, who are holding on to their Shares in desperation that their unfounded belief in GKP "will come good" at some point in the future, but they know not when . . . and your reply post proves your failings
"Anyway today's odd movement against the backdrop of nothing much else going down the pan has only toughened my resolve to hold till sold."
In the absence of an obvious reason for any SP movement, look to find one.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Crashing-Copper-Prices-Spell-Trouble-For-Oil.html
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Demand-Under-Siege-As-Airlines-Cancel-Over-50000-Flights.html
"Are you suggesting Vol make their money from it?"
Hi FlyingHorse1
GKP and "all" other FTSE Stocks are traded across over 16 European Alternative Venues, which gives Entities like Voleon plenty of opportunity to play a very profitable Arbitrage game, and played through specially designed "Arbitrage Algorithmic Software," which carries virtually no risk at all.
For instance, yesterday GKP was traded across 16 separate independent Venues, with a Total Volume of 1,377,651 Share Traded, with only 827,383 being traded on the LSE Venue and seen reported by Retail Persons
Look at the traded Prices on the righthand side
https://www.screencast.com/t/53x8lSrGKG
And a point . . "IF" Voleon was Short Selling GKP then Voleon, or any other Short Seller such as CFD users, would "close & reverse" all their Shorts at or around the "bottom" which would cause a "bounce".
But there was no "bounce" . . . just a normal rise which started late Monday caused by the FTSE100 and Brent rising.
Plus . . carefully watch Voleon's "short position" over the next few weeks, and you will see that as GKP rises Voleon will not close his Shorts which would be the case if Voleon was simply short selling GKP
To be able to Short Sell a Stock one has to "Borrow Shares" . . so the wording "Short Interest Tracker" are misleading . . and bearing in mind that Entities can do Arbitrage and Shorting with "borrow shares" a more truthful wording would be "Borrowed Shares Tracker"
Last of all . . if anyone was "short selling" any stock, the act of short selling would be easily seen on a L2 Platform, and I have seen no such action taking place across Stocks which have a large amount of Entities holding Borrowed Shares.