The way I see it18 Feb 2026 11:05
Positives:
*67% year on year growth cars on the road, £1.088 million so far in 2026
*43% increase in royalty revenue
*As we approach July, this should represent sustained growth with existing contracts, the numbers won't lie with over £400million revenue expected by 2028 - you can see this noted in the November 2025 RNS "Japanese Auto Award and Extended European Program" - In this latest RNS "Reported revenue for H1 FY2026 is expected to be in the range US$23.4m - US$24.0m", this means we would only have realised 6% of the expected revenue (based on US$24m), this leaves 94% of the revenue to come in the next 2 and a half years: Revenue still to come not factoring in future awards: US$376m in the next 30 months.
*Post period end: lump sum of US$14.1m (this plus the cash balance left in H1 2026 US$3.4m = cashflow positive btw), should leave us with enough runway to see the next few months through until accelaration really ramps up.
*Adjusted EBITDA expected to be positive in Q3 and in H2 2026
Negatives:
*Cashburn higher than anticipated at US13.1m - The company is scaling at a rapid pace and I believe that the creations of new teams such as "Future Mobility Group" even if using prior staff would still have associated costs, the I'm not trying to justify the increase but I am looking at it holistically.
*US$5m not factored in by many investors, but it's an unavoidable expense to prepare G3 stock units in readiness for the rapid expansion - As Martin mentioned this should unwind in H2, but we should still expect a further outlay of revenue for future stock increases.
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