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Just ran some analysis on Helikon’s short. They have sold 18.2m shares. Bit of assumptions on the price sold, but taking the mid-price each day they sold, the volume, they have netted around £6.028m. Their average sell price over the period Is £0.33. If they at sold at the highest price each day its £0.36, which is unlikely as the sell pressure they created pushed prices down
It would cost at current £5.8m to buy back, so they are now very tight in margin, and buying back will push price up . Save a few spikes of 36m and 43m average volume here is around 7-8m a day and they need 18.2m
No accusations of greed, but if they had closed toward the end of Nov when this was in £0.20-£0.22 they had netted £4.2m at that point and could have bought back for £1.9m
Have queried this earlier, why 60% up in first quarter and only expecting single digit growth full year. Yes, bit more of an explanation here, they are comapring apples with pears. Stuffed the market full of stock end of year 2021, to boost EOY results. No doubt not only overstocking but a could be lot of lorries that went out with stock, probably came back full in Q! 2022 for credit notes! Think the REVB v BOO RNS were very self serving at the time to keep stock options.
There was a note in the 2022 accounts that said 2023 would be published by 31st August . I cannot believe with all the forensics etc. completed, 2023 accounts would be late. Would be courteous however to provide a definitive date.
The bit I am really struggling with is what to expect in any trading update, or what the grand plan is here. In the RNS of 2nd June, it did say FY 24 is expected to see high single digit growth. For FY 23 we can expect low single digit growth.
Then in the daily Boo v Revb RNS we were treated to, it was stated the first 3 months of FY 24 sales were up 60% year on year. Which would suggest something way beyond single digit growth could be assumed for FY24?
Then in the RNS dated 30th June it restated that single digit growth was expected for FY 24?? Not sure on like for like YOY figures are, but if you are 60% ahead in the first 3 months, but only expecting single digit full year growth, this has to be an expected decline in YOY over the next 9 months.
Only benefit of the settlement, is Boo got most of their way and BH got his shares and a sweetener with the tax paid on them on top and the FD kept her job.
Now we have a massive daily spread, making PI trading challenging, for me something just does not feel right. Yet behind all his and looking at competitors value and performance it feels like there is a great very undervalued business with the current SP
Asked a question of IR (who have always been very good with comms) about £75m payment being definitely triggered now and got a very positive response
"Yes we are delighted with FID announcement and are in discussions now with Total with regards payment. A release will be published in due course"
All good news, the potential of £75m payment has been good, now it will soon be in the bank, better.
Really interesting and not to be overlooked. It is also 1.25% at if annual average is $62 and 2.5% if average is $70. Total expect to be producing by 2024, and forecasts are of a potential of 230k Bopd
Assuming an optimistic view of 230k Bopd at $70 that’s worth $147m to Tullow. Each $1 increase in oil is worth $2m Assume a low estimate of 115K bopd at $62 is still $32.5m.
Either way should be a really positive value added revenue stream
Forget Happyinvestor who has managed to copy and paste the negative from the Report. This was known before it was published as it concerns covering both the 2021 and 2022 bond, and projections are based on a lower oil price, than current.
I feel the main protagonist on RI rumours was Ben Marlow in the Telegraph back at the end of Jan, who reported a rights issue was "unavoidable", and shareholders could be wiped out to as little as 10% This would have spooked many PI's to sell. This helped along the drop back into the mid 20's, and admit I was nervous myself, but have held tight thank fully
We are in good hands here, I'm confident in Rahul handle on the financing and a restructure of Debt will be announced Q2
Please stick to the facts Mr Marlow and report now what we all know, 90p by 3pm
On back the back of oil price, and Rahul’s capable hands this is a huge turnaround. I really appreciate the insightful analysis that many provide on this board, but do get some what frustrated by those who pop up with nothing more to say than 90p by 3pm.
I do wish these posters would take the time to do some proper research, read the reports, study the recent RNS history, looks what’s happening on a macro scale with oil, then hopefully they will realise
95p by 3pm
Will be a RNS this week, got this from IR this morning, could be it may be extended further, but I am hoping with all the positivity here it will be concluded successfully
"Thanks for your email and interest in Tullow.
We will publish an update on the process before the end of the month"
What value have RMS brought to this innovation from P2f? Marketing, sales, contacts, funding??? Seems like Gareth is a one man band here pushing this, why all the rest around him in RMS are awarding themselves options and cashing in on this. Something does not feel right
Product looks outstanding, Covid suddenly hasn't finished and the sectors this could have long term benefits in are substantial.
As a bit of an aside from the serious stuff, I had to laugh at this article, posted only 2 hours ago by Simply Wall Street, suggesting NMC as a great place for a Divided Hunter!!!
https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/healthcare/lse-nmc/nmc-health-shares/news/are-you-an-income-investor-dont-miss-out-on-nmc-health-plc-lonnmc/
Perhaps whoever wrote this might have been a tad light touch in their research !! say in particular over any noticeable developments anybody may have noticed over the past few weeks
Ok nothing good coming out here, and like others assuming the worst. Saw the Telegraph article late last night. As some small glimmer, can’t find it substantiated anywhere else? and if true would have thought it would be big news, particularly with current Coronvirus situation if a Countries largest. Hospital infrastructure was on the verge of collapse and staff not being paid
However only this one Telegraph article reporting this . Can’t find anything in UAE paper report or online (and they are several hours ahead) Latest tweet below, suggests at the front end, obvious concerns from staff but no replies etc to say pay not coming
https://twitter.com/gulf_news/status/1233284040045813760
Can the vitriol please stop on this board, many people locked in with potential big loses