RE: Ex CEO's of Xtrata and Anglo American20 Nov 2025 18:00
Some very rough estimations....
Even without any financing in sight, a project like FAR’s - completed FS, proven metallurgy, clear economics, and a near-US$1bn Phase-1 NPV—should normally trade at 10–15% of Phase-1 NPV, which is £75m–£110m (14p–21p).
Now, with FEED formally agreed and a sized, conditional Chinese financing package in place, the risk profile is materially lower, so the appropriate valuation should rise to 15–20% of Phase-1 NPV, or roughly £110m–£150m (20p–27p) today. And this is still only valuing Phase-1.
When you add the separate carbon-black product (at a guess US$300–500m NPV..../) and the Phase-2 expansion from ore bodies 2–4 (+300% output, adding US$1.8–2.7bn NPV), the full project NPV increases to US$3–4bn, meaning a reasonable funded valuation at 5–10% of total NPV is £120m–£320m (23p–60p)
However, when you factor in the carbon-black substitute product (at a guess US$300–500m NPV?) and the Phase-2 expansion from ore bodies 2–4 (adding ~US$1.8–2.7bn NPV with +300% production), the full project NPV rises to ~US$3–4bn, and even applying a conservative 5–10% of total NPV gives a medium-term valuation of roughly £120m–£320m (23p–60p)
and when fully functional? this hits the £s
All IMO