Member Info for MikeStroud

That’s an excellent and helpful list del929. Thanks. But it always reminds me how much the bod are holding back from us, unnecessarily in my view. I can think of no reason why they can’t give us an update on things like jorc or license status especially when so much time has elapsed when they’ve had some of these things as drafts for six months and said they’d update us shortly etc.
I’m hoping at the AGM we get a thorough update on all company activities and don’t get fobbed off with another “company continues to execute on its strategy “. The bod are the servants of the shareholders and should be keeping the latter better updated in my view, hopefully they will do that at the AGM but somehow I don’t think they will.

Who was rowka? Where is he now?

Happy 27p - I get my money back as thats my average. The shares are then all freebies ready for future rinse and repeat sales. 27p highly unlikely to be that low though.

Over the moon - £1.90.

(£1.15 is my last special divvy calculation based on MT/WK/Flanks being sold).

Roger65 great post. I too am at a loss why we are not allowed to know who the ii was that diluted us or what the money was needed for. I voted in favour last time but will wait for some info this time instead of blindly voting.

Thanks.

Does that mean they can do a hostile takeover? I thought it had to be 30%?

@Toon1966

From the Rosgeo RNS: "The Additional Assets have a total of 104.6 Moz Platinum equivalent resources as at 31.12.2020 (source: Russian Feasibility Study ("FS")"

Now EUA only has 75% of those resources = 76Moz Platinum equivalent.

Platinum spot price today = £872 / Oz

So 76Moz = £66Bn in the ground

After mining costs and "earn out" costs lets say £33Bn to EUA.

Assume mined over 20 years = £1.65Bn profit per year.

£1.65Bn profit per year / 2.759Bn shares = 60p per share for 20 years.

I said 50p.

Happy to admit I'm completely wrong if you want to throw up different calculations, mine were simply to suggest a number? I have assumed Eurasia only mines the Rosgeo JV going forward.

@Banjo:
"I agree that the BOD are heavily invested but nothing is yet defined. For instance - what is a "significant dividend"?? 10p if you have 400 million shares would be very "significant" as a percentage of the SP."

Most dividends are typically 2%-8%. So a significant dividend could be as "low" as 25% of current sp! Not trying to deramp. But it sounds like the company will need to retain cash to develop whatever it aims to develop post sale, they always seem a cautious bod to me so unlikely imo they'd give away too much money as the special dividend if it meant there was a risk they'd have to recoup it later through a raise etc.

Personally I am expecting MT to be sold to NN, Japanese enter the JV with Eurasia/Rosgeo and shareholders to get 90p special divvy and 50p a year divvy thereafter (growing rapidly year on year). These are minimums, I'd not be surprised if it was 50% more than that.

All guesses of course, dyor etc etc.

Very good question; was wondering the same. I have no idea. I have been wondering if some clients will be asking for their DD fees back. If so that should be revealed in an RNS but I doubt it will be.

I wondered if refunded DD fees was the reason why the number of clients onboarded was significantly reduced in the last quarter (i.e. offsetting refunded clients against new clients without giving a breakdown).

I'd be interested in the response if you get one ty.

@Angus - "My life is on the line here" - I sincerely hope you do not mean that Angus? First opportunity you get diversify your portfolio.
For what it's worth my feeling is that the sp will keep drifting down slowly until the "Cracking RNS(s)" comes along.
If the first RNS we see is the 2020 results or similar the sp will fall due to disappointment from PI causing sells. More onboarding turnover (that may be in that results RNS) is irrelevant to me, aside from it helping with cashflow, it is meaningless without monetisation actually happening.
Personally I am down maybe 30-40% ish on this share (have about 8million) but not worried as I'm in for the long term. Right now I'm waiting for the RNSs that tell us: (1) that the first "real" monetisation has taken place and (2) the Tradeflow acquisition has taken place.
I think when (1) happens the sp will triple and then go from strength to strength.... I certainly will invest a lot more at that point. I think when (2) happens we could see a 50% rise.
In the absense of those two RNS I think the sp will keep drifting downwards but I'm still confident AZ will get it over the line.
I don't think you've made a bad decision investing here but you have made a bad decision putting it all in here as any company can go t*ts up especially a company that has not yet delivered its key selling point in the real world (I don't include proof of concept as the real world).

The EGM is solely to approve a resolution that should have been previously approved and has always been approved at previous AGM. In other words this whole EGM is to tidy up paperwork that should have been done at the AGM but wasn't. Of course they have since realised it wasn't done, had an "oh ****" moment and had to do the RNS and EGM to sort it out.

"The resolution proposed is a standard resolution proposed and passed at all recent Company Annual General Meetings but which, for reasons
related to delays in processing votes held in Nominee accounts was not passed at the 2020 AGM held on 18 September 2020."

I had assumed there were multiple interested parties and was hoping a bidding war was going on. So was surprised to see in the RNS that EUA feel the need to improve their negotiating position. Initially it suggested to me there is only one bidder hence the need for them to improve their negotiating position.

However the more I think about it, maybe the bod are being more clever than I give them credit for by creating a new Japanese JV partner or consortium from scratch themselves to throw in the mix of existing bidders. Hopefully there is more than one bidder!

Although I'd like my jam today I can see that EUA mining as a part of a Japanese JV would reap massive divvies tomorrow.

All in all an interesting twist in my view. If the sp does go down Monday then I'm buying more, what EUA has is worth many tens of billions, its just a matter of when we get the rewards for holding.

@PeakHope - you are spot on.

Regarding this: "my fear is as time goes on without proof of concept how many of the interested client leads will go cold and seek out other avenues for funding - companies who have paid the DD fee will be expecting results/ funding"

I imagine that some of these clients who paid for and underwent DD 7 months ago are giving AZ a very hard time, probably demanding their DD fee money back in fact.

Hope the questions you raise are answered by AZ asap.

(BTW I bought more today as the company is moving in the right direction and the RNS was positive but we all know an actual IM is needed to stop the rot.)

Back of fag packet for todays RNS:

Platinum spot price = £853/oz * 104,600,000oz = £89Bn

Less say 50% AISC leaves £45Bn

EUA have 75% leaves £33Bn

Auction price for mining rights say £20Bn with EUA 75% share = £15Bn (deduct from above £33Bn)

So I reckon this has added £18Bn to EUA assets.

If the final sale price is at 15% of EUA assets then this could have added £2.7Bn to the EUA sale price = 90p per share extra to what is already known.

90p

But would really love £1.60

Interesting article about NN's biggest shareholder wanting to change the divvy payment formula to help NN make acquisitions. It'd be nice if they have EUA in mind!

I wonder if NN will be a strong financial competitor to buy EUA due to the pollution fine they had recently and reduced revenue due to flooding. These issues may limit what they can afford to pay versus what they could have paid if these two events had not occurred.

I know some on here see NN mine floods as a good thing making them more desperate to buy EUA but I wonder if in fact it could reduce the top dollar they could otherwise have afforded to pay.

https://www.reuters.com/article/russia-norilsknickel-dividend/update-3-nornickel-shareholder-wants-dividend-change-as-investments-loom-ifx-idUSL1N2LM0FC

Just added 31,000 @27.6p

A higher sp now would be nice as I average 27p (lowest 22, highest 29) but it's immaterial as the sale price is what matters.

Thanks to everyone who contributed to this thread. Interesting to hear various views without it descending in to lse *****ing as other tickers do.
I was toying on selling 2/3 of my holding today but think I'll hold 6 months and see where we are then. Thanks again.

A few key numbers from the report given earlier:

1 - "An updated preliminary feasibility study into Cinovec pointed to a post- tax Net Present Value of $US1.1 billion"
2 - "The project is expected to cost $US500 million"

So the way I read this is the NPV figure of $1.1Bn takes account of the project costs of $500m?
So EMH's share of the NPV is 49% = $490m = £353m. EMH's mcap today is £177m so the very best an EMH investor can expect is to receive up to twice the current share price back (per share) either through capital gain and/or divvies over the next 20 years at today's prices.

Is that a reasonable summary or hopelessly wrong? tia

Hi Ian. Can you put me down for £0.90 on 22nd April 2021 please?

Looking at some other miners:

Name/ReservesMOz/ResourcesMOz/MCAP
1 - Impala Platinum/21/132/$14.8Bn
2 - Northam Platinum/30/244/$8.5Bn
3 - Norilsk Nickel/118/251/$51Bn

In terms of reserves EUA is closest to Impala Platinum, but Impala are generating huge revenues and profit which EUA are a long way from doing. Northam Platinum have higher reserves than EUA (imo) but again are generating decent revenues and profits which EUA are not.
So simply looking at these numbers I'd guess EUA is worth about half of Northam Platinum = $4.3Bn. But EUA only own 80% of MT so that makes $3.4Bn which is equivalent to a sp of £0.90.
Completely flawed of course due to comparing apples with oranges. Hoping for £1.60 as that would give me a sum that has great personal meaning for me.