Member Info for MikeGP

Yoghurt,... nice thoughts.

I would go with (3),.. followed by( 2)!

Best

Wasn't having a "pop" at you alias,... I meant the article.

Best

Not only is the contract transformational ... but the potential is vast. Let's not forget that the original numbers that the Company made public were circa, £35M with the add-ons.

I can't find anything on line confirming that a summit has been agreed? Only that Trump suggested that he would be willing to meet and then Iran rejected that??... but maybe this has moved forward?

https://www.debka.com/mivzak/trump-heads-for-summit-with-rouhani/

The "Trump heads for summit" headline is miss-leading. Nothing has been arranged for agreed as far as I can see from the media. Hopefully it will come to fruition soon. That would certainly help to un-lock things PDQ I would imagine.

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jon,

Interesting thought. Can't make sense of while they would have any reason to sell on the open market etc.,... BUT,... could see a strategy for them selling out to a NOC or major. Perhaps their involvement here has always been as a "spoiler".--- ie with their large shareholding they could all but make a hostile takeover impossible,.... conversely.. an agreed orderly transfer of their shareholding to the new owner/operator makes the outright sale of the company less complex?

Food for thought for all conspiracy fans!

Mancave,... I was very sceptical about that initially,.. as I always thought we would drill,... but as time has slipped since the Norwich Presentation and the timelines discussed there, and in the subsequent FSC,.. I have to say that I am beginning to think that there has to be more to this than meets the eye.

Either way,.... the pad is under construction and so the rabbit is up and running... tick tock.

Best

Eggy,... not really your thought... Fiona said 1 to 2 weeks for testing in a recent interview,..whilst RNS said 2 to 3 weeks......

... so that gives us a range of 7 to 21days!!

So looking like next week will be the week for the first well test results.

GLA

... have to admit to feeling a tad deflated. That's not to say there won't be an intraday RNS,.. but woke a little excited today like a pregnant father.

Patience!!! phew......

Slipps,

It's not a question of being sanctioned by the US.

The goods and services that we are contracted to provide DO NOT fall foul of the sanctions that the US are applying in either of the two phases which they are about to implement,.. ie from Monday 6th,.. and then again in November.-- I posted the parameters on here a while back. This has been conformed by PF, via e-mail:

"You are correct that none of the equipment and services relating to our contract fall within existing or proposed sanctions either primary or secondary. We have made this point in our announcements."

We absolutely do need to exchange the letters,.. but the BoD won't do that until they are 100% sure that there is a working system in place which will allow them to implement it. The noises that we are hearing,.. from the company and the EU,.. appears to me,..to suggest that we are making progress.

... and what we know now ,..is that the contract is signed,.. the monies,.. the length of contract etc., and the huge scope for add-ons,..with all of the other airports.

This, now more than ever,..is a binary bet. They'll be able to make it work,..or they won't.

With the sp where it is,.. to my mind the risk/reward ratio is massive,.. and largely underpinned by this years financial and contract wins. The $4Mill tech contract is huge in that context.

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Slippz,

Sadly it's not as straight forward as that,. else the BoD would have signed off on this months ago. Until they know how this is going to pan out and that there are systems in place which will facilitate the banking requirements then they would be negligent in their duties just to push ahead.

Look at the EIB for instance, the European Investment Bank-- you would think that would be the perfect vehicle for all European business to use,.. but the EIB is in fact independent of the EU and cannot be forced to allow provide funding or even assist companies that want to trade with Iran,... largely because they raise billions of dollars ( which they then lend) from the American banking and bond markets.

There has to be a 'workable' solution in place,... and it is interesting that PF used that word in the last RNS.yesterday:

"The Company continues to receive high level UK government support and the EU is also putting measures in place to assist and protect EU companies against the challenges caused by the US extraterritorial actions which are expected to be largely in place and announced by 6 August 2018. Although these measures are expected to be helpful the Company is not solely relying on them and is pleased to report that it has made good progress on a number of fronts particularly with financing, banking and its supply chain with workable arrangements having been put in place on key issues."
___

Significantly, to my mind, ...is the fact that they have said that they are not simply relying upon the EU to come up with a solution...they are clearly pushing ahead,...with the client,... to figure out their own fix.

FYI, in an e-mail to me PF also said that the german subsidiary was critical to this.

Best

.. the Q&A tomorrow ..... 3pm.

https://yourechoenergy.com/app/panel/qa

.... reveal their hand this week... or take it to the wire on Monday 6th?

IMHO ... it will be this week as the 1st phase of US sanctions are meant to kick off from the 6th. It could be a very interesting end to the week!

Best

http://theconversation.com/new-sanctions-on-russia-and-iran-are-unlikely-to-work-heres-why-100431

..round numbers buys,....

Could they the director buys that we had been expecting some time back?

... and right on cue a large jump up!

charlies,

.. and with relatively few shares in issue,.... and a high proportion held by a small number of PI's,.. it's not a very liquid stock.

When she moves,.... she can move a long way very rapidly,..... up and down!!!

Morning Joe,......it must be getting close.... just looks like we will have a flurry of news on all fronts with the trilogy. It's like waiting for a bus... nothing... and then.....!

whistler,

Spot on.

... and the fact that the "chat" was moved until Thursday,... suggest to me that there was a reason for this. So I am expecting first test results to be announced to co-incide with that,... and if not test results,.. then some other significant news..... else why move the date?

ktf,.... because it's not a producing well,... it's been drilled and tested but not brought on line. Hence I have used a P50 contingent resource valuation.

I contacted JP asking for clarification on this 3 weeks ago,... he came back to me saying "it was too complicated" to address via e-mail and said he would be happy to chat it through. But it was during that two week period when he was away so I let it lie.

I'm more than happy to be corrected/enlightened as to what CoS factor should be applied,... and mine is just an IMHO... calc to perhaps stir some debate.

Best.

.. further.

1. Let's assume that after the drills we have 2tcf ( up from the existing 0.6tcf) in our pocket,. drilled and tested.

2. Let's use the median 20tcf inferred for Tendrara

3. Let's use the low 7tcf inferred for Sidi.

Then:
Tendrara/Anoual
2tcf x say 50% recovery factor = 1tcf x £1.50/tcf= £1.50 x resource chance of success (Cos) @50%= 75p/share

18tcf x 50% recovery factor = 9tcf x £1.50/tcf= £13.50 x resource chance of success (Cos) @10%= 135p/share

Sidi
7tcf x 50% reccovery factor = 3.5tcf x £1.50/tcf= £5.25 x resource chance of success (Cos) @10%= 52.5p/share

Fair value (?)=75p + 135p + 52.5p= £2.62/share

I can't see JP being remotely interested in anything less than the above,.... I hope it is substantially higher.

GLA

... need to apply a recovery rate to your calcs,.. circa 50%.

So 20tcf in place x 50% recovery rate = 10TCF....... X £1.50/TCF........ £15..... x inferred resource valuation @ say 10%.... £1.50/share

IMHO I think that is the calc--- adjust figures to suit. Obviously resources that have been drilled, flowed and tested would attract a higher resource valuation.

Best