Member Info for MikeGP

My hat is in with yours Feeks. Exchange of letters before year end.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/eu-nations-reportedly-mull-clearing-house-to-avoid-iran-sanctions/

For example, Iran could ship oil to a Spanish firm, accumulating credit that could be used to pay a German machine-tool manufacturer for goods going the other way — without any money passing through Iranian hands.

Spokespeople for the German economy and finance ministries told AFP the scheme was one of several options capitals are discussing with the European Commission to create “independent payment channels” to Tehran.

European Commission spokeswoman Maja Kocijancic said Brussels wants “to make sure the effects of the sanctions are minimized for companies that want to do legitimate business with and in Iran and they can still have access to necessary finance,” adding that “currently the work is ongoing.”

Trump’s decision in May to withdraw Washington from a 2015 deal with Iran, under which the country agreed to freeze its nuclear weapons program in exchange for slackening of economic sanctions, dismayed diplomats across Europe.

Since then EU chiefs have been scrambling to find a way for their firms to continue trading with the Islamic republic.

Banks that usually execute the payments in international deals fear themselves falling foul of American reprisals if they continue to enable business with Iran.

While Berlin, London and Paris are driving the scheme, Der Spiegel reported it would be open to other EU member states if it is set up.

.. will put something in place.

https://www.ft.com/content/04ef404e-b826-11e8-b3ef-799c8613f4a1

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https://www.ft.com/content/04ef404e-b826-11e8-b3ef-799c8613f4a1

France, Germany and Britain are working with EU officials on the finance tool ahead of November’s restoration of a second wave of US sanctions that will target Iran’s oil exports and transactions with its central bank.

An official EU effort to maintain financial access to Iran would deepen a transatlantic rift after Washington warned European companies to comply with its reimposed countermeasures or be shut out of the US financial system.

The goal of European policymakers is to help both EU and Iranian businesses preserve the commercial benefits that persuaded Tehran to sign the 2015 agreement to curb its atomic energy programme, diplomats said.

The so-called E3 European countries — which are all signatories to the nuclear deal, along with Russia and China — have been working with the European Commission and the EU’s diplomatic service on the planned funding channel, they added.

Various ideas on how to structure the mechanism are still under consideration. “There has not been a political decision yet on what precise form an independent financing facility could take, but there has been an acceleration in the intensity of work,” a spokesperson for the French minister of finance said.

The French government has long pushed the need for an alternative financing mechanism that would allow trade with Iran to continue in the face of US sanctions. Paris now believes that interest in the project, particularly from Germany, has increased ahead of the November deadline for Washington’s latest measures against Tehran.

The Germany finance ministry said: “The consultations on this are intensive and they continue. There are different models on the table.”

The UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office said the UK and the EU were “currently undertaking discussions to find practical solutions to support continued economic relations with Iran, consistent with the nuclear deal”.

It is unclear whether the proposed channel could be used for payments for Iranian oil, which dominates the country’s economy, or only for other trade in goods and services.

Maja Kocijancic, an EU spokesperson, told reporters on Friday that efforts were continuing to sustain co-operation with Iran in key economic sectors, including oil. Part of the work was to ensure that companies doing legitimate business with and in Iran could still “have access to the necessary finance”, she added.

http://en.mehrnews.com/news/137767/Iran-China-to-counter-challenges-with-coop

txs mk.

mk

,... so, if it is 40 days to reach TAGI an dPaleo,.... are we at TAGI depth at circa 20 -25 days in to drilling? If so that could be about the time of the site visit.

..off we go then.

Rig on site ... 19% erected to date,... power arrives tomorrow.

Let's get that drill bit in the ground!

Txs Jobbs

.... could some one please remind of the date? Is it next week?

Many txs.

..doors it would seem.

https://en.radiofarda.com/a/kerry-met-iran-zarif-several-times/29488152.html

Jordan.....

Ahhhhhhh... well that explains a lot!!! Apologies,... I'm much happier now!

Best

Jordan,...

It's there on the slide! The works start early H1..looks like mid-Jan-ish.... and where does the arrow end?..... it ends a little way in to H2 2019,....ie a little way in to July! Clearly when they finalise the TE-11 target and location,. I presume they will be able to firm up on the program dates.

If it is the same timeline as before... then clearly talk of a LE in Spring 2019 was always going to mean that we wouldn't have had the results of TE-11 before that event. Fair do's.... but I was of the impression that the actual 'public' strategy is to drill and test all three,..updating the CPR's and Basin model as we go,.. and then the LE event. This strategy always being subject to an offer coming in on the fly-- which I guess is what we expect will happen if we hit on TE-9 and/or TE 10 etc.,

Anyway,... in the mean time,..we sit and we wait!

Best

Jordan,...

Yes, agreed, absolutely,.. the TE-11 work STARTS in Q1,... but the actual drilling and testing process doesn't COMPLETE until early July 19. So we won't know the results of the test until then.

Best

TE 11 .... completion and testing now pushed out to end date of June/July 2019..( Slide 11).... so no LE until beyond that, (...so more likely Q3 2019,)..... IF, we are waiting for all 3 drills to completed before selling?

I don't believe that is JP's intention.... which suggests to me that JP believes we have 'a buyer' who will make a move much sooner than that.

Best

___

https://www.soundenergyplc.com/media/1571/se-ip-q3-sep10.pdf

Aiming

"...i don't see us being EBITDA positive yet.."

You absolutely could be right,.. my numbers are pure guesstimates given what we know....

My thinking being

1 We know additional carriers have started flights to Lunghi and that the pax has seen steady incremental growth since the lifting of the ebola restrictions,... like wise we know that the we have been winning some training contracts etc.,- so I think it is safe to assume some modest growth in revenue streams ... hence the £2.1M... up against £1.8M from previous H117.

2 The Technical Division revenue will include part payment of the new circa £3.5M Tech contract, the first advanced payment having been received in April. I have assumed that we would receive 30% of total contract value that by end June 18. ( Given the company has said the contract would be largely complete by year end, Dec 18..I think that is reasonable) Previous H117 Tech revenue was £1M.-- Hence my £2M estimate ( £1M exist + £1M new contract)

3 This period will be the first reported period where the Ferry Operations will have 'fallen' out of the Managed Services accounts. Although there must surely be some costs associated to having it sitting in dock,. ie the berth cost,.. some periodic maintenance , licences,insurances ??etc., Hence I pit £100 expenditure against this. In theory there should be some income also,.. as we are still providing a degree of managed services for the Ferry boarding/embarkation services?

4 I am hoping that our over all expenditure may also been less during this period,.. especially the costs associated with pursuing and winning the M/E contract. Although that may not be the case. Likewise we don't have any clue as to what monies have been spent pursuing the second MoU that they are hoping to convert this year.

So I am thinking the overall revenue must be up by circa £1M compared with previous period..... where we showed a EBITDA loss of £600K.

Hence I am hoping that we will have turned this around,... not long now until we find out.

Best

Ian,

Expecting Group revenues to be circa £3.6-3.9M for H118 compared with H117 of £2.9 and H16 of £2M

My guesses:

Managed Services circa £2.1M... 15% growth Pax circa 65,000 Lunghi
Tech Division circa £1.8M..... to include part payment of new tech contract
Ferry £0.1K loss... maintenance/dock etc.,

Ebitda - circa £0- £250K

Well spotted Bill.

Could that come with the GSA hand in hand I wonder?

.. to receive an offer before drilling.

What do folks think,.... will trading be suspended prior to the details being announced to the market?

Best

Joe,... it was a tongue in cheek comment!

Hope you are well... a few drinks at some sort of LE party will make for a very pleasant 2019! each day that passes is another day closer to news is now my mantra. Worst case scenario this will all be done and dusted by middle of next year... hopefully by Spring,... with all 3 drills under our belt.

Rig must arrive next week IMHO. So spud, say..three weeks later? and TAGI circa end of October?

Not long to wait in the overall scheme of things given what we have been through. The GSA signing must be close now and I don't believe SOU would have issued guidance of 7-9$ if it wasn't achievable.

Rightly or wrongly you do feel that they have been dragging there feet for a while,.... which suggests to me that they are in serious discussions with someone,.. or maybe two or three parties?. After all,... wouldn't it make sense to snap it up now,.. ( agreeably with more risk attached to the purchase)... rather than enter a bidding war with a couple of other majors? Horses for courses I guess.

Looking forward to a chat at the end of this whole process and listening to JP explain what actually went on behind the scenes.... and I'm always keeping what he has said to us in the back of my mind,...regarding the LE ... ie. " if I have been doing my job properly you will be the last to know".

Monday would be nice, James?!

I don't think the site visit will be high on their list of considerations if an offer appears.

"errr,... we'd love to recommend your £5/share offer to our shareholders,.. but sadly we have arranged a jolly for about 50 of them to see some drilling.... so we can't !"