RE: RE: You never know...14 Oct 2018 09:58
Hmm,… Ian,..if only,,… that would be a Veyron moment for many. Buggatti would have to open a new factory!!
However,.. let’s work with what we know now,… and perhaps look at a more realistic outcome?
For me that means using the mid-case figures put forward by the Company… ie O.6 already ‘banked”
TE-9… another 0.6 mid case
TE-10..another 2.6 mid case
TE-11.. ?
So possibly by Christmas we will have line of sight on circa 3.8tcf,…( 0.6+0.6+2.6) drilled and flowing.
If we apply 50% recovery factor,… ( we know the issues with tight sands etc.m).. that give us 1.9tcf recoverable… apply the £1.50/tcf figure and we get circa £2.85/share
We still also have line of sight on the balance of the overall base figure of 17tcf….ie 17-3.8=13.2tcf
As that won’t have been drilled any value attributable to that will have to be heavily discounted,,.. lets’ say by 90%. So we have further inferred resources of circa 1.32tcf,… of which 50% recoverable = 0.66tcf…. x £1.50….. circa 99p/share
Total for Tendrara= £2.85 + £0.99= £3.84/share
You could say that I have been really pessimistic. On the other hand you could say I am optimistic,… I have assumed the first two drills hit…and we achieve mid-case figures. Nothing in there for TE-11 or Sidi.
Anything north of £3 and I hope the Board would be considering it....when I look at the current sp... even that seems pie in the sky,... but I remind myself of James' comment,.... " ..there has never been a bigger disconnect between the sp and where we are at".... or words to that effect!