RE: Rns monday then?18 Apr 2026 15:09
Good afternoon F&M,
Respectfully allow me to pass on my basic thoughts, assuming we all agree we have Gas, Oil, probably Condensate and some Helium.
We have to make estimates of amounts, RF etc.
So let us assume across the explored areas of MOU - 1 to 6 we find 3 Tcf with a RF of 85%
With the gas there is oil (historical drilling discoveries prove this) let us assume current thinking of 1 tcf of gas = 1 BILLION barrels of oil, so assume 3 billion barrels, but RF lets say 65%
Allow zero for Condensate
Allow zero for the Helium
Gas $1.2 billion per Tcf x 3 x .85 allow 1.35 USD = £2.26 BILLION
Oil 3 billion x .65 x $8 per barrel in the ground and 1.35 USD - £11.5 BILLION Oil
2.26B + 11.5 B =. £13.76 billion
say 980m shares warrants = £14.04
Discount everything by 90% and you come out with £1.40
M/Cap of £1.3 billion
Don’t forget there are 8 other interesting areas to explore across our license, so hopefully 7-10% stub equity
Or a 40 bagger from Fridays close.
Everyone will argue with figures, then please ignore everything and throw your own assessment out there, but what ever you do, do not sell until a deal is announced, DYOR/DD.
I think I might be being a tad conservative, given the huge lack of investment in exploration over the last 10 years, combined with UKR and ME, majors will be willing to invest large sums, is £14 b a large sum to a major, not at all.
Across our license there are 8 similar areas, what are they worth ? its not just about our small 85 sq km.
The Helium is the outlier/unknown, but worth 20 times natural gas……. I have allowed nothing.
Tin hat on !!