The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
What are you guys on about? If prices go up, then yes you are right BC only get $120 - but the balance is still "PROFIT" except it is used to pay off debt. Nothing wrong with that is there?
This was always a commodity play. Met coal pricing have slumped - If they recover, BC will recover. If they don't, neither will BC.
Avani can't buy at whatever price they want. Anything they do is a related party transaction and has to be at fair market price. Avani want the coal. To ensure they get a regular steady supply they have supported the business once again. They are more than $45m into this trade.
New management, new off-takes (I expect Integrity off-take will be next), more cash - and a restructuring of the old debt. Not much to dislike ??
PI's loosing confidence i think. Even if we assume BC is selling only 40,000 per month - over the last few sessions, HVOLB is up around ~$20 = almost $10m in extra profit. At current levels BC net margin (after all costs) is around $30 (imo).
At 40k per month = $14.4m net profit.
The pre-emption rights only allow the company to issue enough shares to fulfil their CURRENT obligations under options ALREADY granted. A large portion of these options are JCAM - who have conversion rights at 28p (which i would really welcome !!). These were awarded as part of their debt restructure. Adam also has conversion right from his original deal (from day 1) - and these have always been declared from the initial day 1 subscription agreement. Nothing in the 12% issuance / pre-emptions rights is new ! And like i said - the JCAM ones have a 28p strike price.
Anyone selling on the back of this - is not getting their facts straight.
So with Met at $230, FV = 39p
If Met increases by 10% ($253), FV = 63p
Met is now $245 - So FV should be around 50p
Market remains unconvinced. Not sure what the overhang is ? The AGM, Bonus queries, Production Doubts, Doubt on sustainability of current Met pricing ? - Prob all of the above.
AUS futures up another $11-13 /ton.
Platts should be heading up ~$10-20 soon - has been lagging a little lately. "If" we get another $20 hike - AND are able to lock it in - That will clear a lot / most of BC's debt.
Rally looks sustainable at the moment.