PAUL SCOTT comments - Stockopedia - PURP5 Nov 2021 10:42
Purplebricks (LON:PURP)
34p - mkt cap £104m
I don’t currently hold this one, as a recent MailOnSunday article about potentially large legal action spooked me into selling. Then it issued a profit warning yesterday.
New instructions - have “slowed significantly” in recent months down 38% - that’s a big problem, because PURP earns fees up-front, on signing new instructions.
Cash pile has reduced sharply, to £58m (from £75.8m a year ago), implying substantial cash losses. Expected to “stabilise” in H2.
Adj EBITDA to be “below previous guidance”
Medium term guidance unchanged.
Legal action not mentioned.
My opinion - the market cap is looking really low at £104m, for the best-known online estate agent. Half of the market cap is supported by net cash too. Although how much of that cash might be absorbed by legal costs? The issue seems to be over the status (employed, or self-employed) of its staff. It has switched over to employed status now, but there could be legacy costs if courts decide to overturn the previous self-employed status. It’s a material uncertainty at least.
Also, I swallowed the strategy update from the company in a webinar a while ago, but it has clearly not worked. The money back guarantee (with lots of conditions attached) was supposed to stimulate new instructions growth, but the opposite has happened.
Hence I think there are big question marks over strategy (and management). Also the company should have said something about the legal case, which is a risk.
That said, I’m finding the £104m market cap very tempting. Will give it some more thought. I’m tempted to buy back in, but need to think it over some more.
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https://app.stockopedia.com/content/small-cap-value-report-fri-5-nov-2021-placeholder-896269?order=createdAt&sort=desc&mode=threaded
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