UK Small caps - comments Paul Scott Stockopedia19 Oct 2023 11:23
I’ve been active in UK small caps for 25 years now, and I cannot ever remember another time when there’s been such a boom in takeover bids, yet market sentiment has been so bombed out. It’s usually the opposite! Another reason to be bullish about UK small caps - it’s not just commentators like me constantly saying small caps are oversold, this is being confirmed as correct from almost daily takeover bid announcements in small and mid caps.
Every takeover bid also injects fresh liquidity into this sick market, which helps the recovery process - since institutions get a liquidity event which enables them to cash out and pay their client redemptions, and a takeover bid also improves their funds’ performance figures. Whilst private investors receive a fresh pot of cash to deploy buying other bombed out, oversold small caps. Sooner or later, this is all going to set off another bull market. Remember also there’s a wall of money in cash savings, where the cautious have (sensibly!) parked their money to protect capital. Sooner or later at least some of those funds will be coming back into small caps, once FOMO kicks in, I reckon! As always, no idea when the bullish scenario plays out, but I strongly feel we’re not far from the bottom now. Especially as sentiment is so bad - could we be near capitulation? I reckon so, yes.