Paul Scott Stockopedia comments. 9TH NOV 20235 Jan 2024 22:53
Paul’s opinion - I very much dislike the numbers from SFOR - explained in detail here on 18 Sept 2023, when I dissected its interim results.
It strikes me as bizarre that SFOR is today talking about dividends and share buybacks in 2024, when surely debt reduction should be its priority?
What about a cyclical recovery then? The US tends to have short & shallow recessions (if it has one at all), so SFOR shares might come surging back if it starts reporting growth again. The trouble is, I don’t see any track record of proper profitability at SFOR, even when economic conditions were better. For that reason, I’m not at all convinced there’s a good company here, as there’s no evidence of it as yet.
So it’s another thumbs down I’m afraid. There could be a trading bounce in this share at some point, but on fundamentals it looks very poor I’m afraid. It’s not cheap either, with an enterprise value of c.£560m, even after its collapse in share price, losing c.93% from the bonkers Aug 2021 peak.
Generally speaking, I’m not a fan of startups where some star manager tries to recreate former glories. It’s surprising how often they’re not able to do it, especially when macro conditions are tough. Yet investors are asked to pay up-front with a lofty valuation before anything has been achieved. Risk:reward has turned out to be very poor on SFOR. So far anyway.
https://app.stockopedia.com/content/small-cap-value-report-thu-9-nov-2023-sfor-act-vid-adf-zoo-agfx-wrks-pcip-979594?order=createdAt&sort=desc&mode=threaded