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In somewhere between 12 and 18 months Scancell are likely to have enough data to convince big pharma that iSCIB1+ is sufficiently effective to make it worth licensing. So, what will big pharma have to pay and what will Scancell be worth.

The market for iSCIB1+ in non resectable melanoma will be $4.5bn (3 x the SCIB1 market size), so let's say that big pharma estimate that can achieve annual sales of $2bn. How much would they have to pay Scancell to buy that future annual revenue stream - my guess would be $1bn up front plus $500m in milestones. They would also need to give a significant royalty to Scancell given the fact that the risk of failure will be low - my guess would be 15%.

So, in 2025 Scancell might receive $1bn with the expectation of a further $500m over the following 2-3 years. This would certain push the SP towards the £1 mark irrespective of whatever else may be happening with our other products. Obviously the SP isn't going to stay at 12p until the deal is done - the progressive build up of positive data will make a deal more and more likely and the SP will rise in anticipation (not withstanding what may also be happening - e.g. trial data, deals - with our other products).

The real kicker comes in later however when the royalty stream builds. 15% of $2bn is $300m of pure profit for Scancell each year. Based on a PE ratio of just 10 this would give Scancell a valuation of $3bn or around £2 per share and there may also be a decent dividend. And this is just for iSCIB1+ ! As trials progress and deals are done for other products they will only add to the valuation.

Not far off 20p by Christmas IMO.

Hi JohnnyB1 - I've listened a few times and definitely seems like 'will do'. The YouTube Closed Captions also hears it this way. Happy to be wrong however :-)

Hi JohnnyB1

Lindy actually says 'but we WILL DO an additional toxicity study to ensure we get compliance on that one as well'. It is pretty clear in the recording.

Cleanerworld, each shareholder is entitled to purchase 1 new share for every 45 shares they currently hold. You may however indicate that you wish to purchase more shares than that in the event that more shares are available (due to some shareholders not taking up their entitlement). Whether you get all the additional shares you request will depend on how many additional shares are available, how many other shareholders want to buy additional shares and how many additional shares they want to buy.

Well that must now move us into 2026 in terms of cash runway with a relatively modest dilution. Plenty of time of SCIB deal and Modi data, and a few Glycan deals. All looking good.

With hindsight this placing announcement explains a couple of things:-

1. The SCOPE update RNS on Tuesday was clearly for the benefit of getting the fundraise away at the best possible price rather than to get the news out before the AGM

2. As of Tuesday IG Index would not allow any new positions to be opened in Scancell. With hindsight this must mean that IG were aware of the forthcoming fundraise at that point and, as insiders, were not allowed to profit from enabling traders to open new long positions which IG knew would lose money within 2 days.

In the current funding climate getting the placing away with only a modest discount to yesterdays price is certainly a positive.

Mm's having a field day with sellers, dropping the price ruthlessly.

Amazing - folks happily buying above 13p on Tuesday am and now can't find buyers at 11.3p. It's just a casino.

I've published to now so should be accessible.

Thanks for the recording Botski. I've cleaned up the sound and will add the slides when they are available.

https://youtu.be/say9mRBFzCo

IMO in today's market (which hopefully will soon change for the better) only news that has hard cash associated with it will lead to a sustained SP increase e.g. commercial agreements or a bid. Hopefully sooner rather than later we'll get back to the situation where very positive news regarding drug efficacy delivers a sustained SP increase.

At the time the trade took place the spread was 12.00 / 12.25 so it appears to be a buy.

Thanks for the clarification Bermudashorts

Thanks KonarA, very interesting. Does give the impression that Covidity work is ongoing. Definitely worth a question at the AGM regarding this.

Interesting note from Turner Pope:-

- London’s Alternative Investment Market (‘AIM’) now appears quite dramatically oversold, following a decline of more than 40% relative to the FTSE All Share over just the past 2 years.

- Long-term chart provides exceptional support, producing multiple bounces from the index’s current level over the past 13-years.

- Coincident crossover of stochastic indicators reinforces expectation of an imminent and significant reversal from a heavily oversold position.

- AIM has displayed surprisingly high sensitivity to UK Base Rates – which is good news, given they now appear to have peaked with cuts anticipated by next summer.

- Improved access to capital could revive AIM’s IPO market, while the recent spike in M&A activity suggests consolidators have already started picking off high quality, lowly valued/well positioned enterprises. This may accelerate further during 2024.

- Impact of suggested abolition of Inheritance Tax (however unlikely) looks overblown.

- Risk-takers might seize opportunity now in order to avoid anticipated rush back into the index early in the New Year. Based on past recoveries, an upward correction that returns the index to around the 900 level during the first half of 2024 appears to be a realistic target.

Thanks Chester18.

'the double checkpoint group plus SCIB1 is doing very well'...presumably this statement reflects not only the data we have seen but also the current position (which will of course be known to LD).

Maybe deals will turn out to be like buses...I wonder...

First signs of SP recovery, perhaps in anticipation of forthcoming events...?