Member Info for Metalhead25

Anyone have a handle on likely profits at 30000ktpa?

I don’t mean this in a negative or alarmist way, but I imagine they’re trying to work out what to do about the company’s debt and ongoing costs, given the undersubscribed July raise. They did tell me an email on 29 July that they would not have concerns about going concern or ongoing funding. Nevertheless, surely they must be working on that aspect

Which company?

Not sure why you think conclusion of Anglo deal is imminent. The negotiation period was 60 days from delivery of the model so we’re likely only about a third of the way through. Agree there’s likely to be plenty of news coming up

Nige I’m sorry too - really thought this share was going to be a winner. Fwiw I never really lost faith in the management, I still think Scott is ok. Maybe he oversold the prospects of getting Avonmouth funded.

The things I think I misjudged here are:

1. PNG costs. I’m annoyed with myself on this because when we acquired Wowo Gap I actually posted on this board a concern about the running costs of the PNG projects. Somehow I then forgot about my own concern.
2. PNG timing. When will the mining licence actually be awarded? Who the F knows. This one is the PNG government’s fault. How can anyone run a business under these conditions?
3. Financial backing. I was under the impression that Align and Sinom were both willing financial backers and that this would avoid low priced placings. The August placing showed that was not the case and made me worry about the debt coming due.

Still think there could be a better future here if the mining licence comes in soon.

Hi. I used to post here a lot but sold after the August placing, taking a big loss. Still find it hard to fathom that this crashed so badly from what was already a low mcap, especially with assets which have real value and potential. But there it is. Hopefully I’ve learned some lessons, nothing else to say really. Wish you all well

Surely the most likely explanation for selling this morning is placees flipping for a small profit. Good to get through this churn, leaving a clearer runway when further news lands

Hippo, my understanding is that Newgen has security over all assets including the mine; however, I don’t believe it follows that they can take everything and keep it for themselves. What they would do is take control of the assets, sell them, and out of the proceeds pay their costs and then their full debt. However, any remaining proceeds would go back to the company, whereupon they would go to other creditors and then any residue to the shareholders. So, if you imagine that Newgen would be able to sell the mine for £100m, and that their costs and debt plus other creditor debts are £25m, then in this scenario the shareholders get £75m. Now, I’m not at all saying that this example is realistic. But you seemed to be equating security over all assets with being able to take and keep all assets, which in my understanding is not right. DYOR of course (and full disclosure I’m still not a current shareholder - just trying to be helpful :-))

I agree with some of that but, to be clear, I’m not just talking about $1bn in the ground - Julimar is supporting a $1.6bn market cap

A further observation on the comparison with the billion dollar plus mcap-generating Julimar resource. That resource is Nickel-Copper-PGE. But the only aspect of that which is of respectable grade taken alone is the PGE (approx 1g/t). The Nickel is 0.16% and the Copper is 0.1% - both pretty hopeless on a standalone basis. So, how is the resource valued by the market over a billion? The answer seems to be that because the Nickel and Copper are in the same rock you essentially get them for free. Nevertheless, they make a big contribution to the total resource and to the “equivalent grade”.

Applying that to Munni Munni, our PGM in the defined resource is much higher grade (2.9g/t). The question is: do we have low grade Nickel and Copper in the same rocks which will boost the economics in the same way as at Julimar? Bill seemed pretty convinced we do, and now so does Rod.

Also, is there more PGM ore outside the defined resource, either at surface or underground or in Munni Munni North? Based on Julimar, it would seem additional ore could be much lower grade than the existing MM resource and still be very desirable.

There does seem to be a huge amount of potential. If Julimar is worth $1.6bn (and in the last year Chalice’s Mcap went as high as $3bn), there’s a serious disconnect with MM being valued effectively at zero (given most of our market valuation seems to be IOCA).

Hi all. Just listened to the interview. I thought it was great.

He’s a much better speaker than Bill (no criticism intended of Bill - he built the portfolio and I’m a big fan) and that will help with selling the company to investors and partners.

I really like his clarity of vision. Big plans for IOCA and Munni Munni/EH; stop wasting money on Mexico; let Greenland go. Perfect. Clearly the right approach.

His comments on Munni Munni I found very exciting and it’s hard not to get carried away. He clearly thinks we may have another Julimar/Gonneville deposit (owned by Chalice, valued at $1.6bn)

Interesting point from DanielC43R about the presentation having changed between May and June. Perhaps if we put that and the RNS together it might be possible to infer:

- Rambler is cash flow positive based on day to day mining cost only (implying those costs are less than about 3.50/lb)
- Rambler was cash flow positive including development and capital costs in May but not in June (implying costs including these items are between about 3.80 and 4.30)
- Rambler was not and is not cash flow positive including debt repayment obligations (no idea what costs including this item would be)

Guesswork, obviously

Moon FFS, you spent f*cking WEEKS say that your mystical chart had told you it would go to 8p but that this would be the best thing that ever happened, there would be a huge bounce, you would sell all your other holdings to double down here at 8p, blah blah blah. Now you’re saying 8p spells doom. What a total bullsh*tter

No big sells posted, mightn’t it just be MMs anticipating a down day because US markets battered last night?

For anyone who hasn’t seen it, check out this tweet comparing soil geochem values against neighbouring properties

https://twitter.com/darrenhazelwood/status/1569580761476472832?s=46&t=HwKXMBN_uxqUaIi4_jsUoA

Quite so, Fuku. The RNS revealed two things: an immediate financial issue and that costs are much higher than speculated on this board. Both will need resolving and we will find out the plan for doing that in the next couple of weeks

Comes on guys,

I don’t know the reason for the RNS but the most likely which have been canvassed are, in my view:

1. there was a failed placing and they needed to release the inside info given to those who were canvassed
2. the discovery that there was a financial problem was deemed to be material information (likely to affect share price) etc and therefore had to be released as soon as possible.

I don’t buy any of the (positive or negative) theories that there was some scheme to achieve x, y or z.

Personally I think 2 above is most likely. It’s the simplest. Occam’s razor

Nice RNS this morning. We do have some very exciting projects in Canada

It looks like we will have a bit of a wait now for clarity, up to a couple of weeks or so (unless something concrete happens earlier). Presumably the price will settle somewhere during that period. Probably by the end of today we’ll have a fair idea where. I’ve decided to stay out at least until we know what’s happening. For me the equation in the short term is we either get a small speculative gain or a big loss. Longer term prospects won’t be known until the company speaks up. I’ll keep an eye out for that and see you all then. Best of luck in the meantime. Lots of nice posters on here and I wish you all well

I think the loser allegation probably relates to the fact you’ve wasted nearly 2 years trolling this board after you sold. You could have taken up a new hobby instead - I recommend Duolingo