Member Info for messer3

Aside from the big six shareholders who account for >50% issued shares (c. 600 mln), any ideas as to how many other holders with remaining c.500 mln shares are there?

"Nothing is certain with Barryroe as saga of oil field drags on". See comments under article.

Https://www.thejournal.ie/barryroe-oil-field-6094679-Jun2023/

According to Google, Lansdowne (20% barryroe field) has a market cap of £1.39 mln and BEY (80%) has a cap of £5.18 mln. Could/should/might be straight forward to merge the two companies at a UK base, raise some funds and pursue Ryan's Dept under the Energy Charter Treaty using no-foal, no-fee legals. Might take a long time but if action succeeds the return would be significant.

Good coverage of short-term operational plans/growth but little said about medium-term aspirations in relation to possible geographic diversification, acquisition hunting etc.

Any chance that next week's UK budget will relax the windfall tax for NS producers - reduce rates/duration and/or set energy price thresholds above which the tax applies?

Rang Davy's dealing desk.

Voted NO via Davy on 130k and wrote to Tony expressing concerns about price, and control and strategic plans.

Only hold 130k shares but I intend to vote NO and am writing to Tony Craven Walker saying that I agree with the contents of the Raper letter especially in relation to price being paid and de facto loss of control.

Great work, Visitor.

I'll be voting NO for my 136k shares for the good reasons specified by many other posters - tax uncertainties, unclear motivations/intentions of M, mis-valuation etc. On the latter point, SQZ is currently trading at 260p with a MC of £710 mln. If we deduct management's claimed y/e cash balance + hedging of £460 mln (surprisingly low by at least £50 mln by my estimate), the EV is only £250 mln. Based on y/e reserves of say 60 mln BOE, the value per share works out at a mere £4.1/BOE. Furthermore, my expectation is that SQZ should report a PBT of about £400 mln for the current year which is 60% more than its EV. A similar PBT is in prospect for 2023 assuming gas prices remain at about 200p/therm.

If we remove my estimate of y/e cash+advances (£546 mln) from the current market cap (£808 mln) we get a prospective enterprise value of £262 mln. If we assume that profit after tax for the year will amount to about €230 mln, then P/E ratio falls to about 1.14 (262/230). Much lower than your 3.3 !!! DYOR

Think your "$192" a barrel should read $231 a barrel at current FX rates.

Don't forget, some big bills to be paid in second half - final and interim divs and capex on NE amounting to almost £100 mln - which didn't appear in the first half.

Based on a share px of say 300p, SQZ's market cap at end December would by my reckoning comprise cash (and equivs) equal to 195p. This gives an enterprise value of just 105p (300-195) driven by ongoing daily prodn of 27k boe/day with reserves conservatively worth about 227p/share (based on 62 mln boe * £10/boe / 273 mln).That would place a value of 422p (195+227) on SQZ. If NE comes in (at say 31 mln boe) and a value of £15/boe is used for all reserves, value jumps to 706p/share. Take your pick!!

BEY:LON appeared for a few days on Google Finance but seems to have disappeared since Monday. Any ideas?

Cash value before any tax or appeal.

Some posters are complaining as if SQZ's management have being sitting on a huge cash balance for several years. The reality is that most of this cash has been accumulated in the past 6 months. Why should SQZ rush to do a deal when it is drilling NEigg and when the cash is continuing to increase. Best to let a significant balance accumulate and then act as the more cash there is the greater the leverage to do a big cash+shares deal. You don't need to be an investment guru to understand the difference between market cap (£1.1 bn) and enterprise value (£0.6 bn).

Instead of focusing on market cap, we could also look at SQZ's enterprise value which excludes cash balances. By my reckoning, SQZ could, as a "best case", have cash plus advances of £537 mln by year end after taking account of dividends, taxes, capex etc. Based on its current MC of £1,123 mln and ignoring the obvious timing isssues, SQZ's EV could be about £586 mln.

Simplistically, (very) modest annualised 20p dividends for 2022 would cost £54 mln and be equivalent to 9.2% of EV (or 4.8% of MC).

Likewise, year-end reserves of 62 mln BOE (ignoring Eigg) would be valued using EV at only £9.5 per BOE. This valuation seems very low in relation to my projected "best case" gross profits for 2022 of £78 per BOE. This is based on 30k BOE prodn/day for 340 days resulting in annualised revenues of £975 mln less cost of sales of £182 mln and uses these "best case" prices: Hedged=47 p/therm, Unhedged=204 p/therm, oil=90 $/bbl

Of course, E&OE and DYOR.

Maybe management has had 5 years to do a deal but SQZ only started accumulating serious cash about 9 months ago. Far better to be seeking a deal with an ever growing bag of cash. The time to start chiding SQZ management if they haven't done a 'big deal' is probably at the year end when the cash balance could be £X00 mln and the Egg result will have been assessed. Meantime, if people are angry/disappointed because they won't secure any cash from the ill-fated Kistos deal, they can always sell some SQZ and, if they so wish, invest in Kistos.

Hope board of SQZ remembers the Golden Rule ('he who has the gold makes all the rules') and don't feel pressurized to spend its/our cash on a second-rate deal.