The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
I have no idea why they are selling, but i think that we have to assume that they want out completely.
As regards your comment re 20p share price target i think that this will prove to be conservative, for two reasons. Firstly because iodine prices are continuing to rise ( see recent comments by SQM ), and secondly because we should now start to see higher production figures as new plants are constructed. Hamstrung by debt the erection of new plants was not a possibility before , but it is now, indeed we have been promised news of 109 by the year end.
The price did not rise on what is obviously good news because quite simply the whole world and its dog knows that major holder Southern Rock is selling down its holding, and any demand for the shares is easily satisfied. It is diffiult to be certain as to how many more they have got left to sell, but i would guess 10 million, so you may find that this stock remains depressed for some time yet, despite the fact that on fundementals it is clearly very cheap.
Looks like you were right in thinking that there was professional interest, Frank, fund manager Schrroders has just announced an increase in their holding.
Scoredagainsteps, the bidder was Consort Medical , in June 2018, and then two years later they themselves were taken over.
To be frank i am rather hoping that nobody bids for Carclo right now, as the best we could hope for would be perhaps 70p, and i am confident that in two years time that price would look very cheap indeed.
If somebody wants to bid at say a 50% premium once our stock has been re-rated to reflect the immense potential that exists in our medical plastics business then that is fine by me, but not just now when the stock is probably only half the value that it should be.
Thanks for sharing your calculations.
I approached it a slightly different way, but still came up with a figure that is within 10% of your number.
Starting with the £10.4m pretax profit , i deducted £1.5m for interest paid, and £2.5m for pension contributions ( i believe that they gave this figure in a recent statement ). Multiplying the net figure of £6.4m by 15 ( as per you suggestion ) implies a valuation of £96m, which is not very different to your own figure of £89m.
On reflection perhaps a PER of 15 is a bit rich for an indebted company with a pension problem, albeit a company with outstanding growth prospects in an area that is very much in vogue , but even on a more modest multiple of 12 the equity valuation still comes out at £77m , which is equivalent to a little more than £1 as a target share price.
I have not allowed anything for tax, but i believe that they have carry forward losses.
Rumblefish is making himself look very stupid. The disclosure level is 3%, not 5%. And as Gus has pointed out already, there are actually 485 million shares in issue, so a holder would only have to disclose if he had more than 14.5 million shares ( approx.)
Article talking about the possibility of adding iodine to salt so as to increase IQ of children. Food for thought !
Of course you are right, Frank, compliance with the rules is not an option , but i have seen so many "late" holdings RNS's that i do seriously wonder whether the Stock Exchange is policing this with much vigour.
But time will tell, at some point Carclo will have to update the Rule 28 details on its company website, but meanwhile do you agree with me in thinking that these past few days the selling has not been so aggresive/possibly has finished.
The new customer programmes announced in December 2020 are moving into prodction on time and to budget......quote from trading statement earlier this month.
Sounds pretty much nailed on to me, is it that important that we know exactly who the customer is, in any event it is obvious that the customer has requested confidentiality .
Time2Retire, you say that if there was a large seller then they would have got out earlier when the price was higher, but it is quite possible that the seller started feeding stock out at those higher levels but could not sell all their holding and has happily carried on selling at progressively lower levels , presumably taking the view that their average exit price will be aided by those earlier sales at the higher price.
I suspect it is Schroders that have been selling down, despite the abscence of an RNS ( which if it is them would have been obligatory by now ).
Having said that i do get the feeling that the selling is coming to an end and that the stock has a bottom in at around 35p. For that reason i have been adding to my holding these past few days.
Phil164, you say that the market is valuing the Falklands discoveries as stranded assets, but you dont say why that is so. Myself, i think that the only objection to commercial exploiration in the Falkands can only come from the green welly brigade, and as i tried to make clear in my post the choice now might be bending a knee to the green welly brigade and subsequently suffering the inevitable power outages, or developing the fields sensibly and profitably.
You say that nothing has changed to alter the market's view that these are stranded assets. So you dont think that the rise in the price of oil this year and the even greater rise in the price of gas might not be a factor rthat could change the market's view !
Strikes me that you are the sort of person that needs to be told what to buy and when to buy it, i prefer to arrive at my own conclusions BEFORE the market changes its view. But, hey ho, if it works for you so be it....
It is indeed surprising that so far this stock has been untouched by the surge in the gas price. I assume that there are some people who still think that the Falklands will never be exploited due to environmental opposition, but if Boris has to choose between the electoral disaster of a Winter of mass power outages , or the "green" counsel of his idealistic wife ( which incidentally bears no consideration for the real wishes of the islanders themselves ) , then i have no doubt that we will one day see oil and gas flowing in both basins.
Totally agree Rylidan, but the lack of interest is a reflection of years of share price misery. The fact is that investor expectations are now unrealistically low, which is of course what makes the shares such an outstanding bargain . The forthcomng results dont need to be good, they simply need to be in line with expectations, and that is surely a given if you read the recent trading update.
L3Trader conspicious by his abscence today !
Personally i hope that there is not a fund raise, i am getting fed up wih seeing shares in small companies being sold off aggressively followed by a fund raise at a ludricously low price, with the same individuals who were behind the selling then being allowed to rebuild their positions at that low price. And the Stock Exchange does diddly squat !
You could well be right Beza, but i seem to recall that the Chairman pretty much ruled this out in a previous interview.
I would be very surprised if they did not give a trading update on the day of the AGM.
I would think that we will get a trading update along with the AGM on 2nd Septmber.
6 figure shareholding in BOR , wraith ?
Do you mean in terms of value, after all a 6 figure shareholding in BOR can currently be purchased for less than £1k !
But if you are talking about a 6 figure holding in terms of value then one assumes your holding must be a minimum of 10m shares. Sincerely hope that your optimism pays off, i really do think that this is one of those situations where we could lose everything, but could perhaps 100 bag !