Member Info for meoryou

“How often are they correct with their guesstimates?”

I know the answer to that one.

Never ever ever.

Not even close.

WP

Sometimes they talk in the market about capitulation.

When everybody finally decides enough is enough.

Afterwards all the sellers have already fled and you start building proper foundations for the next leg up.

It’s all about Trump and the oil price.

But if they settle down,we may be getting close to capitulation,and a better future.

At the moment,no matter what good news comes out,there is just a big cloud hovering over BP

The longer Shell do not did ( should of course read bid)

Morning Jakers

Just when you think the merger talk is dying down, it starts up again.

I’m sure it’s mainly media driven.

As the market continues to ignore

The longer Shell do not did the more convinced I am that they want some else to bid first,to get major concessions from UK government.

Since Trump arrived the chance of a U.S. oiler being successful increased.

Tomorrow will be interesting.

No matter what the vote figures end up is a Total vote of no confidence to get this far.

As for worst CEO

For me it’s always Tony Hayward as his cost cutting was a major factor in the lead up to the oil spill.

From Green Darling To Takeover Target, Is BP’s Reinvention A Prelude To A Mega-Merger?

https://www.inventiva.co.in/trends/from-green-darling-to-takeover-target-is-bps-reinvention-a-prelude-to-a-mega-merger/

Last 3 years there has been a fall in late April or in May.

Not every one was prolonged ,but that’s why I said do your own research.

It’s one of those often repeated phrases, with a bit of truth behind it, but only a bit.

New Delhi: The results of the ninth round of auctions for 28 hydrocarbon blocks under the Centre's Open Acreage Licensing Policy (OALP) were announced on Tuesday, with state-run Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) securing 15 blocks—four in partnership with other players, and 11 independently, according to an official statement by ministry of petroleum and natural gas. Oil India Limited bagged nine blocks, including three with ONGC. And Vedanta Group's Cairn Oil & Gas secured seven blocks.

ONGC has tied up with Reliance Industries Ltd and London-headquartered bp plc for a block in the Saurashtra Basin. To be sure, this marks the entry of bp into India's upstream exploration & production (E&P) space. ONGC bagged three more blocks in partnership with Oil India.

A statement from bp spokesperson said: “We are happy to confirm that we have signed a contract for a new exploration license under the consortium of ONGC (40%) RIL (30%) and bp (30%) for block GS-OSHP-2022/2 (Saurashtra Basin) in the OALP IX bidding round. This strategic collaboration brings together the expertise of India's largest national oil and gas company, ONGC, the largest Indian conglomerate, Reliance Industries, and global energy major bp. This consortium leverages the strength of all parties and is another step towards strengthening India's energy security goals."

I have posted this the last few years,and it’s been very true for BP.

When to sell in May is still key.

It’s not advice for anyone to follow,particularly with all the volatility currently.

But do your own research and make your own mind up.

And remember there is still the very slight chance of a bid during this period.

Also as posted yesterday some chance of a double bottom giving support.

Last 2 years I have thought about selling some,did nothing,then wished I had sold some.

This year no BP buys in profit solves the problem.

Lending these days I’m suspicious of almost everything.

It’s all twisted to suit whatever narrative suits.

Thanks for the comment.

Always welcome

I think there are three major optionalities in BP’s portfolio that any activist investor would love to see monetized. The first one is not all in BP’s hands, it’s the monetization of the Rosneft stake,” Della Vigna told CNBC over a video call.

BP announced it was abandoning its 19.75% shareholding in Russian state-owned oil company Rosneft shortly after Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in late February 2022. It had marked a costly and abrupt end to more than three decades of activity in the country.

A second optionality for BP, Della Vigna said, is the firm’s marketing and convenience business.

“I mean, within BP, a company that trades on three times EBITDA, there’s a division that can trade at 10 times EBITDA, right? Amazing. You can make the same point for a lot of the other Big Oils,” Della Vigna said.

EBITDA is a standard metric that refers to a firm’s earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization.

“The third option is BP is a U.S.- centered energy company — and it’s clear, right? BP is the most U.S.- exposed of all the majors, more than Exxon and Chevron,” Della Vigna said, noting that 40% of BP’s cash flow comes from the U.S.

“So, being listed in the U.K., when the U.K. gets you the biggest discount of any other region in Big Oil, doesn’t feel right. I think some form of relocation or transatlantic merger may be worth considering,” he added.

Bit more info

BP and its partner Chevron have made an oil discovery at the Far South prospect in the deepwater U.S. Gulf of America.

BP drilled the exploration well in Green Canyon Block 584, located in western Green Canyon approximately 120 miles (193 kilometers) off the coast of Louisiana in 4,092 (1,247) feet of water.

BP is the operator of the Far South, with 57.5% share, with Chevron as its partner holding 42.4% working interest.

The well was drilled to a total depth of 23,830 feet (7,263 meters).

Both the initial well and a subsequent sidetrack encountered oil in high-quality Miocene reservoirs. Preliminary data supports a potentially commercial volume of hydrocarbons.

“This Far South discovery demonstrates that the Gulf of America remains an area of incredible growth and opportunity for BP. Our Gulf of America business is central to bp’s strategy. We are focused on delivering more affordable and reliable energy from this region, building our capacity to over 400,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day by the end of the decade,” said Andy Krieger, Senior Vice President, Gulf of America and Canada.

BP expects to grow its global upstream production to 2.3 – 2.5 million barrels of oil equivalent in 2030, with the capacity to increase production out to 2035. Around 1 million barrels of oil equivalent per day are expected to be delivered from the U.S. onshore and offshore regions by 2030.

April 14 (Reuters) - BP said on Monday it had discovered oil at the far south prospect of the deepwater U.S. Gulf of America.

The Trump administration's Interior Department said in January it had officially changed the name of the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America. (Reporting by Anjana Anil in Bengaluru)

“It's definitely time to have a clear out of the complacent board of directors.”

They lost the confidence of the market a while ago.

Week by week they appear to be loosing the confidence of more and more shareholders.

This weeks vote will be interesting.

A new CEO ,if it’s the right one would see BP climb to the lofty heights of £4.

It would have to be a golden plated pick before it would get us back to £5.

BP boss Murray Auchincloss is facing a rebellion at the company's annual meeting this week.

The threatened revolt comes after chairman Helge Lund bowed to investor pressure earlier this month and announced plans to step down next year.

Activist investors at the business, including ruthless US fund Elliott Management, which has built up a 5 per cent stake in BP, may now oppose the re-election of Auchincloss as chief executive at the gathering on Thursday.

I'd expect Elliott and other investors to vote against Auchincloss,' said Ashley Kelty, an expert at broker Panmure Liberum. He added that there was a 'growing feeling in the market' that the oil giant needed a new chief executive as well as a new chairman.

Other City sources said no one on the BP board could count on their position being secure. Non-executives include Amanda Blanc, the boss of insurer Aviva who also serves as BP's senior independent director. She is leading the search for Lund's replacement.

A revolt will pile further pressure on Auchincloss as the beleaguered boss pushes ahead with plans to re-focus the business on oil and gas following an ill-fated pivot towards green energy. BP's said last week that its debts had risen by £3 billion in the first three months of the year alongside lower production and weaker trading in natural gas.

A sharp drop in global oil prices following Donald Trump's tariff measures, as well as increased production from the Opec+ cartel of oil-producing nations, will pile more pressure on its finances.

Investors have been clamouring for sweeping change at the top to revive the firm's share price, which has fallen by more than 30 per cent over the past 12 months

Auchincloss has tried to quell the rising discontent by slashing BP's spending on green businesses by nearly £4 billion a year and boosting oil and gas investment by 20 per cent to nearly £8 billion.

He has also pledged to more than double BP's value to £160 billion within the next five years – a level not seen since before the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in 2010.

The pledges have so far failed to appease Elliott. Auchincloss also faces attacks from the environmental lobby. Some of BP's climate-conscious shareholders are now also expected to oppose him due to the change in strategy.

The oil firm suffered a blow on Friday when Legal & General, which owns a 1.8 per cent stake in BP, said it would vote against Lund's re-election as chairman at the annual meeting – piling on pressure for an early departure.

The insurer said it had 'substantive concerns' about the decision to row back on its green energy strategy without putting it to a shareholder vote.

Elliott declined to comment.

Jimothy

From my time at BP the sharesave scheme was a saving account you saved your own money into.

So no cash payment from BP,just selling you shares for the agreed price ( usually 10% discount )and BP actually receiving some cash.

The sharematch on the otherhand involved BP giving you some shares for nothing up to a limit, providing you matched them with your own shares ,which were then locked up for 2 years.

One very unlikely scenario.

Letterone buy out BASF.

UK government doesn’t like so sanctions them.

Russia does a full sanction on BP Rosneft in return.

BP petitions UK gov for compensation.

Hey presto BP suddenly becomes majority shareholder in HBR.

Doubt it would happen.

But lately much stranger things have happened .

Jimothy

I did wonder where the figures came from.

As it’s not a break even I recognise.

But felt it should be put out for discussion.

I’m certain the capital markets data will be valid,but it’s a sign of how BP is being reported.

Everything is taken as negative as possible

Now they have shown interest .

It would really put the cat among the pigeons if they went after the BASF stake.

Interesting times

As WTI futures traded below $60 per barrel for most of this week, US shale producers have grown visibly more anxious about their future production outlook, as the all-in breakeven has risen above $62 per barrel by now.

- The most convenient method of cutting expenses would be to lower (or scrap altogether) share buybacks, with RBC calculating that ExxonMobil’s current breakeven to cover both dividends and buybacks is $88 per barrel, whilst Chevron wields an even higher $95 per barrel.

- Upcoming earnings calls of oil majors could shed a light on their respective strategies, overshadowing relatively positive Q1 2025 results as ExxonMobil posted year-over-year profit improvements, to $1.70 per share vs $1.67 per share in Q4 2024.

- European majors ENI and BP would find it most difficult to adjust to a lower-price environment as even without share buybacks their breakevens stand above $70 per barrel, in stark contrast to Shell which could relatively easily manage its dividend obligations at $48 per barrel.

Keystone Flows Shut After Dakota Oil Spill. The 622,000 b/d Keystone pipeline carrying Canadian heavy crude all the way down to Cushing was shut down after an oil spill saw the release of almost 3,500 barrels of oil in North Dakota, restricting heavy sour crude deliveries to US Midwest refiners.