Member Info for meoryou

Agreed Theaky

When they talk about Shell waiting

I think it’s the difference between Shell and BP they are waiting on changing

ie the multiples of BP divided into Shell not the actual BP sp.

So they can agree a higher offer sp but only because the higher Shell sp buys more BP shares.

But if an offer comes in based on Shell shares it’s a moving target anyway.

You know how many Shell shares you will get,but the actual value could be lower if Shell sp drops or higher if sp rises( at least in the short term)

Jakers don’t think the bid price will be that low

Because

1) don’t think it would succeed

2) it would be likely to encourage a counter bid.

BPs defence would be we will sell even more of the company

But what do I know.

I think at that price if Shell bid,the market would immediately put the BP sp above the offer price.

Which means the market expects a counter bid.

I have been involved as a shareholder with many mergers( take overs) and in several the sp moved significantly higher than the offer price.

Personally would like to see some transparency on it.( announce its being discussed with BASF)

And managed PR rather than just announced afterwards.

But either way it would be good news

Gimi liquefaction vessel on GTA asset could potentially produce more 3 million tonnes per annum

Phase 1 of BP’s Greater Tortue Ahmeyim (GTA) liquefied natural gas project offshore Mauritania and Senegal could eventually produce 10% more than expected based on the latest tests underway on the Gimi floating LNG unit and a potential upgrade of the vessel.

Exporting its first cargo last month, GTA’s initial phase will feed hydrocarbons from four subsea wells in 2850 metres of water to a floating production, storage and offloading vessel on the continental shelf that strips out condensates and water.

Gas is then sent to the Gimi, which is moored behind a breakwater at a location some 10 kilometres offshore St Louis in Senegal, on the maritime boundary between the two African nations.

I found this an interesting read

Https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/bp-shell-megadeal-would-create-european-rival-to-exxon-mobil

Https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/news-and-insights/speeches/the-future-of-drilling-starts-now.html

Https://www.bp.com/en/global/air-bp/news-and-views/press-releases/bp-leads-industry-taskforce-to-achieve-update-to-Defence-Standard-for-renewable-aviation-fuel.html

Primetime

Agreed not calling the bottom just hoping we are near

Morning Jakers I’m left wondering if

“ swimming in treacle”

Is one of those quaint Norfolk customs ?

As for BP

We have had results day

Capital Markets day

Elliott buying in

Shell rumours

And none seem to make much difference.

Guess we are just going to have to be patient and wait for the BOD to get it right.

Maybe the new Chairman will be the catalyst.

The biggest negative for BP this year has been Trump and his effect on oil prices.

With OPEC joining in the party,but at least we can understand the OPEC position.

When you finally get to the bottom there is only one way.

UP

“got some..it's a bargain. Time will tell. DYOR”

It’s certainly a bargain.

The big question is will it be a good investment

History doesn’t always repeat itself.

Good luck, we all need some

Originally the payments were looked at as a poison pill to a takeover,

As they all had to be paid at time of takeover.

Now the remaining payments are not a huge burden as from memory it’s now under $ 10 billion

One other comment.

If at any time the price difference between BP and Shell becomes the 5:1 ratio people have said they want or any other target you identify.

If you get it don’t be greedy and look for more .

Sell BP and buy Shell if that’s what you want,but only if you reach your target.

Takeover talk May get you what you want without ever happening,but the market has to believe it’s possible.

There are so many ways this could play. Out,if it starts.

Shell could have started buying today in US( probably not)

They could do like Elliot and use options / derivatives to buy a stake.

I’m sure they never ever expected to buy BP for £3.60 so they will have a price it makes sense to them.

There is always a take over premium.

If Shell want a knock out blow they have to price their bid properly and not encourage a counter bid.

So a cheeky bid is very unlikely

We watch and wait

Jakers

Even at these oil prices the sum of the parts are way over £5.

There is a bad management negative premium attached to BP sp.

But as always the market will decide.

And at below £5 there maybe more than one bidder.

It is cheap

Up till now the market has not believed any of this rumours.

If it decides to believe this time sp must be at least £4.50 ( imho).

Why now and not previously

If BP itself sells off the surplus parts it will reflect in sp.

These are not reflected in sp at present so buyer would get the benefit.

BP are near the bottom so either with or without a takeover the only way is up.

Even if oil drops more BP must be near the bottom ,other wise a takeover is guaranteed .

Personally think at £5 or below it’s a steal,but some say they would deal at that price.

“Is it even worth theorising over the psossibilty of Carlos Slim taking out the BASF stake, either in full or in chunks over the coming months/years?“

If Carlos Slim can get Hbr to match him

If he buys 5% and they buy 5% his 5% will suddenly be increased as long as Hbr cancel their 5%

.Ditto. his current holding.

BP's Exploration & Production division has announced an increased stake in the Ursa platform located in the Gulf of Mexico. This development comes as part of an agreement where BP boosts its working interest from 45.3884% to 61.3484%. This strategic move is aligned with BP's broader goals to invest in lucrative and carbon-efficient oil and gas projects, enhancing the company's competitive position in existing assets while ensuring steady production levels in its upstream operations.

The transaction also includes an acquisition regarding the Ursa Oil Pipeline Company LLC, elevating BP's interest in the pipeline from 45.39% to 57.20%. Additionally, BP gains a 1% working interest in the Europa prospect and a 3.5% overriding royalty interest in Ursa. Operating the Ursa Tension-Leg Platform, BP now holds a 61.3484% ownership stake, while ECP GOM III maintains a 15.96% interest. This deepened investment underscores BP's commitment to strengthening its portfolio of oil and gas assets.

Just think what Bernard would have got if he had not been a naughty boy.

At least the same as Murray and probably 20% more.

From the figures I can find they have been awarded roughly 3 times there holding before today.( unless I got it wrong)

Nice job if you can get one