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I`ve not posted for ages but watched the growing frustration expressed here by many LTHs and the insidious comments of a few posters. Even SDs acolytes are beginning to grate. Its all most unedifying. Lets face it, GGP is not in control of its flagship asset, never has been since the moment the JV was signed. No idea if SD and his high powered Board have played their best hand or not - SP suggests not - second guessing NEM (or NCM) intentions looks like a duff strategy to me (if that's what is going on).
So here we are with no formal clarity on HAV resources, nothing but delay on FS and DTM, U-turns on funding and listing. And what of the Company's Brokers, time we heard from them again isn't it?.... their target prices look ridiculous against the current valuation. The market simply isn`t buying SD's pitch so perhaps the brokers can help him by reiterating their forecasts including updates to reflect the Rio JV and new tenements. Might just steady the ship.
Of course, a decent hit on just one of the outstanding assays would lift everyone`s spirits and since I'm incapable of selling at this price, I live in hope as must we all. GLA Mel
Cack-handed or deliberate? A raise is coming sure as night follows day IMO. Only questions are, at what price and for what purpose. Either way, it`ll now have to be done at a lower price than might otherwise have been the case had manner and timing of communication been properly handled.
More than ever, GGP has been at the mercy of recent events beyond its control. But not today. Shambolic. GLA Mel
Just back from a Melbourne again to much news that one might have expected to move the dial positively, and yet here we are at new 12 month lows. I’ve no idea what’s going on here. Whether it is simply a toxic combination of adverse macros on top of yet more dilution or other factors the biggest of which is a fear that the DFS might contain some unwelcome information on complexity, scale, or costs. Despite SD’s language and apparent certainty of a positive decision to mine I wonder if NCM might conclude they need more drilling to support a DTM. Almost inconceivable they’d say no.. and yet the SP is telling us something.
I attended the last town hall which was very reassuring and in fairness SD has delivered exactly what he said he would. I can’t make the next one unfortunately but imagine the messages will be those delivered to the Denver Conference. Don’t expect anything new.
Am still fully invested, although thoroughly dispirited with the share price . The next drill results had better be fantastic and the DTM crystal clear or there will be little prospect of appreciation.
Each to their own, but as I’ve said before I hate the dilution we’ve all faced. I would have subscribed fully to a rights issue at 8p and for that reason my 3m + votes will be in favour of resolutions 1 & 2 but against the others. Would any likeminded souls going to the Town Hall please express this point of view. Thanks. GLA Mel
Thought Shaun's presentation and willingness to answer a wide variety of questions last night was excellent. there were some enticing snippets suggesting discussions were being had regarding a possible new JV and an earn in deal, leveraging Greatland's exploration expertise.
Shaun reiterated his dismay at having to "give up" another 5% of Havieron and went on to say when it came to writing the RNS he`d have to really focus on the potential value of the remaining 25%. I came away with the feeling that shareholders are going to be very disappointed by the price NCM will get that for.
Which in turn led to the discussions regarding placing, consolidation and debt funding. What was said was rather inconsistent to my mind... "banks are willing to lend 100%) of GGPs capex" ... "very rare and speaks to the quality of the ore body" then later "but they`ll want GGP to have skin in the game".
Claimed not to "understand" the retail fund raising mechanisms here in UK (simpler in Oz apparently" and whist he'd like to find a way for shareholders to participate etc etc ... this all sounded rather implausible to me suggesting another placing more than likely. I didn't catch anything regarding timing. But thinking about it, if the 5% figure is lowball then he`ll have to act fast to steady the ship and ensure the company can continue funding its 100% owned programme (AUD150K- 300K per hole) and respond positively if and when NCM propose speeding up Hav development or adopting better but more capital intensive approach. Fair enough. From straws in the wind last night I don't think we`ll be waiting long now to find out.
My faith in the long term prospects remains undiminished but in my opinion the SP faces a lot of headwinds just now.
Just my take on what I heard. GLA Mel
Completely agree, SD is not "dithering" but he clearly does find himself in a difficult position just now - both contractually regarding the JV terms and facing very uncertain global macros neither of which he can influence to any great extent, if at all.
He cannot finalise a funding deal with the Bank until he knows how much is required or he risks borrowing insufficient to cover GGP's share of mine development and ongoing operational costs. Equally, he probably doesn't want to borrow too much and incur unnecessary set up fees and likely at higher rates of interest. Assuming the Bank will require a debenture and insert various cover clauses e.g. X times MCap cover, his hand is weaker now than it was just a couple of months ago. It would be like aiming at a moving target.
I'm not especially concerned about the eventual 5% figure but for sure settlement is dragging on and doing nothing to stabilise the SP. You know, the possibilities I am fretting about are that NCM in some way stalls on FS production which would decimate our SP. No evidence of this as an operational or tactical likelihood but the fact remains GGP does not control its only tangible asset. The other is a concern about the massive overhang when 145m new shares are handed over to PT. Just imagine a couple of million shares coming onto the market day after day for weeks.
I would like to see SD come to a different deal with PT e.g. raising more money from the Bank and offering PT a Cash settlement in full or part (with a Lock in period).
So too he has many additional options he could negotiate with NCM as a variation on the straight 5% terms which might work to both parties advantage longer term. Plus the outside possibility of deals with 3rd parties on our other prospects.
However, until any or all of this is settled shareholders are in a precarious position. Personally, there's no question of me selling at this level, or lower ( that ship has sailed) but nor can I bring myself to buy more until the mist clears. A distressed watcher then for the time being! GLA Mel
Given the possibility for the independent assessor to come down on the side 5% valuation, rather than Greatland Gold’s figure, further SP weakness is inevitable… so I hope that SD will simultaneously RNS the Bank financing deal to demonstrate a clear funding path through to development. Or else any gap will be exploited. Meanwhile some +ve news on the other fronts would be very welcome indeed. GLA Mel
Am also going to Tas and Cradle Mountain week after next. Wondered about a drive by of Firetower whilst there but doubt there`ll be anything to see. Would like to see the lid coming off the SP soon though. GLA Mel
This Information, the manner of its release by NCM and it's apparent variance from their earlier comments and Shaun' s interpretation of them is making the GGP board look like mugs. No GGP RNS? Not good enough given its significance and as we are in mid negotiation on the 5%. GLA Mel
I'm with TT on this. Targets to trigger the rights will be confidential but typically include MCap, shareholder return, cash flow and achievement of strategic objectives. So a nice high bar on all of those should mean investors are happy. This is just deferred performance related pay. Given the timeframe it's not, IMO, a direct indicator one way or anothet of how the 5% FMV will land. GLA Mel
Regrettably, I think this could go on for weeks yet. Thin trading conditions over the holiday period and the likely absence of company news for a few weeks I means there’s little to steady the ship. I now want a bidder to emerge, then we’ll see what Hav / GGP is really worth to someone. GLA Mel
Got to be a reason for this placing that we aren’t seeing. It’s small value, it’s particular timing, the discount and coming so soon after all SD’s recent fine words. To meet new Bank debt covenant requirements? To keep pace with NCM on our share of exploration costs in and outside of planned growth drilling. But surely not just to keep the office lights on! Pretty clear that GGPs retail army is in need of a decent explanation. Decided not to participate in the retail offer tonight but do have some firepower in the SIPP that may go into more GGP provided Shaun’s explanation sounds compelling. GLA Mel