Member Info for Megla

These prices crush everyone, but the shale producers are the worst hit. They were already getting next to nothing for Gas and NGL’s, now the oil price is in the gutter then anyone unhedged may as well just pack up the rigs and go home.

If correct, then Tullow will update guidance on Thursday.

What’s your evidence for that Sham?

75k is midpoint guidance, which would be about 71k saleable barrels.

Tullow work off Brent

That said, selling now would be like closing the barn door after the annals had already bolted.

Maybe 50% off the price this morning. Guna be an absolute bloodbath

Wait until the results and see what the company says it it’s review before making any decisions.

Anyone’s views at this stage are utterly worthless, there are far too many unknowns with the coronavirus and a potential price war with the OPEC+ deal being terminated. The oil price could quite easily decline much further and stay there until the market balances.

What’s the FCF at these oil prices then bluemoon?

Maintains FCF? How can they maintain FCF when it’s negative at these oil prices?

Selling assets yes, but why do people constantly think it’s so easy? If you think Tullow are going to get $600m for 20% of Kenya and party of an exploration licence I think you’ll be very disappointed.

Covenants include an ebitdax metric. So yes, tullow are massively in danger at these oil prices. Breach of covenants will likely results in total equity wipe out.

This could be game over

Very attractive at these levels if they can avoid debt for equity.

35p-40p today?????? What the heck you been smoking?

Divi, what divi? No offence, but have you been living in a cave for the last few months?

I would imagine the majority are hedges against the debt. The YTM is huge on the 2025 bonds so likely attracting some interest from the brave.

btfath1,

Quoting last years FCF is pointless. 2019 is done and gone, look forward. The equity valuation is where it is for good reasons.

That wasn’t a leading question, I genuinely don’t know, only just started buying and posting to further my own understanding.

Convertibles can be paid by drawing down the RBL, but that starts to amortise at $200m every six months sticky so situation at the mo with oil prices the way they are.

Auson, I wouldn’t be so sure about that then being deferred if it comes to it. I’m not even convinced the bond holders will roll over the 2022 bond without something that’s punitive to equity. Do you know what the next RBL redetermination is?

What has the 1 billion in credit facilities got to do with the potential of breaching covenants? I’ll give you a tip, nothing.