Member Info for Megla

Agree with the sentiments in this thread, Tullow just don’t get it, they don’t communicate, zero sense of haste to ensure costs are reduced inline with current market conditions and they still don’t get that having G&A costs of 10’s of millions a year is totally unacceptable for a company that isn’t producing any FCF.

Stakeholders would probably accept a delay in getting the RBL over the line giving the world wide lockdowns, but not to communicate that when you’re trying to build trust is a terrible misjudgement.

A new CEO to shake up the culture is very much needed.

Games not over yet, if the RBL is approved this week then they’ve got six months.

Arguably helps Tullow with shale being put under intense pressure, particularly given the already dreadful realisations for NGL’s and Nat Gas.

Unsold cargoes would be a huge problem, let’s hope people still want the type of oil we’re producing.

Negative FCF isn’t the worst case scenario by any stretch. Tullow’s fate is now in its ability to sell assets, they basically spell that our for us within the year end report.

Assuming we get news about the RBL redetermination this week, then at least the board have until September to make some progress.

android101

If the company has ‘right sized’ maybe you could explain why G&A costs are still going to be 10’s of millions more than other comparable companies like PMO and Tullow?

The company has had a ‘big company’ mantra even with limited production, people have been getting rich in face or near total shareholder wipe out.

The current cuts, although welcomed, don’t go anywhere near enough, I’m fairly sure the new CEO will have the same opinion. Tullow needs to become an incredibly lean operator and that means getting rid of the dead wood and anyone involved in keeping shareholders in the dark about the production issues.

The problem with looking at the short tracker is that you have no idea what the reason is for the short.

Yes they might simply be betting against the company, but they might also be part of hedging strategies. Long oil, short Tullow. Or long debt, short equity.

Most definitely will, the outcome is hugely significant. Given current oil prices I wouldn’t be surprised to see it cut further.

Profit is profit, especially in this market. $10pb is highly likely if no one cuts production, current estimates are that demand is down between 10-20 million barrels a day, that's already huge numbers that are going into storage.

Once the tanks are full, the price has to drop under the cost of production to stop the barrels coming to market, so who knows.

Need huge production cuts from all nations, hopefully Saudi Arabia and Russia come to their senses before the tanks fill up.

Maybe they've got someone lined up to do it cheaper?

RBL will give us a boost, will give the company six months to properly turn things around.

BTFATH1, it isn’t a $2bln claim, just agreement of tax losses to pass onto a potential buyer

Think the market is pricing in potential issues with redetermination of the RBL. Once approved, that does give us some breathing space for the Russian and Saudi’s to come to their senses.

Daily movements are just guess work, that’s all.

Fully agree that the Saudis etc need to change track, everyone should be doing their bit to support during these unique times, I would imagine the US will be having even stronger words in private.

My concern is the current plan for isolation etc, there doesn’t appear to be an end date. It looks like the government have rowed back on the herd immunity option due to the number of deaths. Instead focusing on limit the spread for the longer term. I’m not sure how this, or any other country copes with a prolong period of businesses being shutdown.

Says the man that’s asking Sharebel where he thinks the stocks going.

The world is starting to talk about social distancing for 18 months, thus destroying demand for the the long-term, and you think there’s going to buyers for a heavily indebted oil company??

Drop in the ocean at the minute. Need the Saudis and the rest of OPEC+ to significantly cut production once all private companies have cut capex.

20% down still, some boom this.

Only needs a 100% rise and I’m getting close to break-even lol

They could draw down the RBL to do it, would be a good strategy in equity valuation was a bit higher so they could raise funds through a rights issue to pay down the RBL once the exercise had been completed.