Member Info for Megla

That’s really good RRR, but maybe add some substance to your posts rather than finger in the air price predictions on the back of just appointing a CEO.

The appointment will certainly help sentiment, but Tullow was in a dog fight before all this COVID crap, they’ve still got a long way to go before you see your price predictions.

You talk utter nonsense.

Reasonable uptick, but still trading at 30c on the dollar. If you can afford to buy in size, then bonds definitely offer good value if the company doesn’t go to the wall. Not sure how liquid they’ll be at these prices though.

skier1,

The company has said they’ll be FCF neutral at $35 oil for the rest of year, so maybe you could back up your ‘racking up debts’ comment? If you can’t it might be best to keep quiet.

And if OPEC++ don’t come to an agreement, is it still a ‘no brainer’?

Would be nice to hit today

I wouldn’t read much into what Trump says, he had a tendency for pulling numbers out of the thin air. What is tweet does do is give the Saudis a get out of jail card for this stupid price war with Russia by bringing everyone together. Personally, I think a deal will be done (it has to given global s&d balances) but only if the likes of the US, Canada and Brazil also contribute with sizeable production cuts.

As for our share price, I think they’ll be somewhat of a relief rally, no negative surprises from the RBL and confirmation we can be cash flow neutral at even the lowest oil prices, but think the macro stuff will put a lid on anything significant. Maybe after a OPEC++ deal (the second plus is the US, Canada etc) we can get back to reasonable equity valuation.

Don’t be silly.

Not sure what you mean here Tony, but the hedges are settled evenly each month over the course of the year. Apparently there can be no deviation from this.

Not sure it’ll do much for the share price given the current macro factors, but that is exactly what we needed to see. The business still has the trust of its creditors which gives the company breathing space required to turn the company around.

Surely gotta be tempting to draw down the RBL and get into the market to buy as many of the bonds as they can. Risky strategy of course, but even if we had to pay 50c on the dollar, $300m would clear the entire $600m 2022 bond. Assuming people were willing to sell of course.

Draw down the RBL, buy and retire the debt, raise new equity pay down the RBL once COVID over.

Absolutely, shale is ****, but apparently Whitling’s rock was amongst the worst.

Tullow need time and a good CEO, hopefully we’ll get the first bit with successful redetermination of the RBL.

For Whitling’s holders they are practically wiped out, they’ll get 3% of the new equity structure if the company can come to a deal with its creditors. Personally, I think it’ll end in total wipeout for equity, but not sure it really matters when you’re practically at zero anyway.

Davstock, they had bonds due this year and next so the writing was on the wall unfortunately. To be honest, I think it’ll end in chapter 7 but time will tell. CDEV are practically unhedged going into this ****storm so don’t think they’ll be far behind.

Impossible to tell without knowing what the price of oil will be, if it stays like this for the the medium term then Tullow won’t be around in its current form either.

Agree with the sentiment, disagree that it’ll be anywhere near 60%.

As for your comment about people not thinking the industry will vanish, I think you’d be surprised what’s wrote on this board.

CDEV will be next

For all those thinking shale will disappear, this is what really happens.

Whiting Petroleum have declared chapter 11 bankruptcy this morning. The company is in negotiations to reduce the debt by handing the company over to its creditors. Shareholders all but wiped out, getting just 3% of the revised equity structure.

Whiting emerges as a company with a stronger balance sheet, lower debts and production continues.

Shale production will undoubtedly drop at these prices, but the industry isn’t going to just vanish like some seem to think.

It 100% will be, just doesn’t look good when you’re trying to improve relations with your stakeholders and rebuilding trust.

Fair point bluemoon, but it’s the new CEO’s reputation that will be on the line, they’ll be judged by the actions they take to turn the business around.