Member Info for MCB55

My view is that any "controlling the flow" will be done topsides, usually via a special control valve which is designed for that purpose. Because any throttling will have to be progressive and will also be very erosive on a traditional gate valve itself. Any problems subsea for valves, changeout is expensive, whereas topsides fairly straightforward.

FWIW the opening of manual subsea tree valves by ROV does not necessarily mean immediate oil flow, only when they are ready topsides, but still imminent. There are still remotely operated hydraulic wing valves to be opened when they are ready to go.

Winalot,
I agree, however Dr T sees FOIL as stable flow/temporary acceptance, ca 20 days after first introduction of hydrocarbons/flaring.

I agree that they will operate 24/7, but she might hang around for bringing the wells on, even if only to provide proof there are no leaks!

On the other board a respected member/oilie is suggesting that shuttle tanker connect/disconnect trials, etc, have sometimes been done before FOIL or at least before a tanker load is needed.......any views anyone?
My view is that it will be before "temporary/interim acceptance" which is the other definition of FOIL/stable flow. So between flaring and FOIL, and maybe early on as flow line fluids may require exporting to tanker unless they were filled with treated water, in which case can be dumped overboard.

Great straight to work!
Gauges should be deployed today and wells de isolated tomorrow, then bingo we flow!?

Aduk,
Yes 2 ROV's on board ETA 10.30 tomorrow.
I think that it will not only deploy the gauges, also de-isolate the wellheads/trees and just maybe hang about a few days while they function test the xmas tree valves/bring on the wells in case of a problem......thoughts anyone?

These gauges are going down for 2 years which is the battery life. Look up expro.com and search world first wireless gauge installation. It refers to abandoned wells but can equally apply to live wells! Any downhole specialist care to comment?

SR,
I agree that the rush to electric cars might be as bad as the rush to diesel ones awhile ago!
It is because electric cars appear to be zero emission that politicians and the public see them as a no brainer, when in fact they are not looking at the lifecycle/true carbon footprint of electric cars! An easy trap to fall into!!

SC,
My guess would be that the actual gauges are already installed downhole (only place they can be for reservoir info) and that these seabed packages are not actually gauges but the wireless data collection pack for receipt and storage of downhole data and onward transmission (?). Basically a relay station?

Surely whichever of these vessels deploys these gauges will also attend at the manifold/wellheads to turn on/de-isolate the wells!? So maybe 1st hydrocarbons/flaring this week then?

dspp,

Yes the world is changing, but how fast? Small nations like UK might move relatively quickly, but other larger ones like the US, China, India will take longer. India has already stated that inorder to improve the quality of life of their populace they need to pollute, as it is now the time for their "industrial revolution", and they need cheap energy to do it! Globally in 50 yrs time there will still be a demand for oil, albeit somewhat less than now, although population/emerging market growth demanding more goods/cars might mitigate the decline. Also surely home produced oil must be at a premium with minimal transport costs/carbon footprint compared with overseas supplies and also from a strategic point of view, unless poo collapses.

Aduk,

I don't really know, I assume it is just a toss of a coin, heads you win tails you lose!

IMHO this is NOT a blind toss!
Given the amount of drilling, testing, seismic surveys and reservoir modelling that has been done by professionals. Also other third parties have been convinced enough to stump up $500m for the EPS and Spirit £380m for half of Warwick......they certainly don't see it as a "punt"! The oil business is highly professional and don't invest mega millions for no reason.
There is definitely large volumes of oil in place, just a question of how much is recoverable, even the low case is good.
Nothing is a racing certainly, but the odds are definitely on the upside!

Cebo,
Sorry but you need a gas export line before they can increase production!!

Biffa,
I accept that it may not stack up like I said, I assumed (wrongly) that BP were buying 300M oil in the ground not just paying the capex to develop it!............. I guess you have to buy (or find in BP's case) the oil in the ground first and then invest the capex & opex to get it out. So we go back to the beginning then, what are 2p/2c reserves valued at? I know there has been some debate over the last year or so on this, but as I remember 2p could be ca $15/bbl and 2C ca $1/bbl.....about right?

"...to lease an extensive organic growing facility from a company which has now ceased its cannabis operations."

I wonder why they ceased to operate......maybe basically went bust?

Does this mean we got in cheap or........ have bought a pup? Time will tell I guess, in for the long term anyway!

It does seem rather amazing that a £1.3m investment can generate the high level of returns outlined in the rns of many times more!

SIPP,
Yeah have seen that before and I generally agree with most of it.... " dual thread opportunity.." about sums it up!
I guess my question was to see what the other BB punters thought.

BTW I am all in to HUR in a big way!

"BP yesterday announced that with their partners, they will spend $6billion dollars to produce 300million barrels in the Caspian Sea...."

On that basis when HUR's 2.3 billion bbls are proven (5 years yet!) then 2.3/0.3=7.7 times $6billion = $46.2bln and sp equals £17.7 haha Don't call me a ramper, just playing with figures!!

"For 2019, analyst EPS estimates range between 4¢ and $3.89, with a consensus forecast of $1.28."

I think there must be a decimal point adrift there, surely $0.128.......even so at that rate and on a undemanding PE ratio of 15 gives an sp of £1.5 for 2019!?

There is a lot of talk in the Annual Report of moving more towards a production company rather than a pure exploration one.......so when will HUR transition and be valued (its sp) on an income/profit vs assets/oil in the ground basis of an exploration company? My view is that it will somehow be a bit of both for awhile yet, but by 2020 the revenue stream will will be quite a marker!