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Jabido I'm not much better lol ........................................................................................................................... Taylor Keogh Taylor Keogh @taylorkeogh 16m UK energy security: @beisgovuk to look again at #gas storage capacity? .......................................... https://mobile.twitter.com/taylorkeogh/status/975315300395741189/photo/1

Hi Jabido - I did have Twitter but came off it a while ago - feel free to share anything on there that I post on here if you like :)

Extract from Strategic report from Mutual Energy confirming that there isn't sufficient capacity via the SNIP to meet severe winter peak day demand for 2015/16 and 2017/18. Also with the Moffat interconnector being the only single source of gas from the UK into Ireland it doesn't provide any security of supply at all should any outages occur as have done in the past as they have no storage to fall back on. Future development The Northern Ireland Gas Capacity Statement published by the Utility Regulator shows that, although gas demand is expected to remain relatively stable, over the next ten years the annual peak demand is expected to increase considerably, most notably with the increased use of gas generation on the no-wind days and the growth of the domestic gas sector. The report indicates that the Northern Ireland transmission network does not have sufficient capacity via SNIP to meet a severe winter peak day firm demand in 2016/17 and 2017/18 under minimum operating parameters and anticipates that capacity short fall measures or the use of the South-North pipeline would be required in such conditions. The changing needs of the power generation shippers, married with potential upstream pressure reductions (as highlighted in the annual Gaslink Winter Outlook), are likely to require investment in the NI gas transmission network over the next 10 years. Any reinforcement would require significant lead times and no specific projects are earmarked for development at present. ................................................................................ ................................................................................ Extract from Science Direct Applied energy by Joseph Devlin ..................................................... Key findings reveal the high vulnerability of the Irish power system to outages on the Irish gas system. It has been shown that the economic operation of the power system can be severely impacted by gas infrastructure outages, resulting in an average system marginal price of up to €167/MW h from €67/MW h in the base case. It has also been shown that gas infrastructure outages pose problems for the location of power system reserve provision, with a 150% increase in provision across a power system transmission bottleneck. Wind forecast error was shown to be a significant cause for concern, resulting in large swings in gas demand requiring key gas infrastructure to operate at close to 100% capacity. These findings are thought to increase in prominence as the installation of wind capacity increases towards 2020, placing further stress on both power and gas systems to maintain security of supply.

The head of The Energy and Utilities Alliance (EUA) calling on ministers (again) to launch a review of Britain's dwindling gas storage capacity...only this time we now have the diplomatic row with Russia to contend with!

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/russia-row-sparks-fresh-fears-over-gas-storage-b5r338xdh Russia row sparks fresh fears over gas storage Simon Duke March 18 2018, 12:01am, The Sunday Times A diminished gas-storage capacity may leave Britain more dependent on imports Ministers should launch a review of Britain’s dwindling gas-storage capacity amid the escalating diplomatic row with Russia, according to an energy industry trade body. The Energy and Utilities Alliance (EUA) said the recent decision to close Centrica’s Rough facility off the coast of Yorkshire would leave Britain more reliant on imports when temperatures plunge. Rough, which is being wound down, accounts for an estimated 70% of the UK’s gas-storage capacity — or six days of winter demand. “With little gas storage capability, it makes us more dependent on imports and at greater risk to shocks in the system,” said Mike Foster, chief executive of the EUA. “Getting gas from the Middle East or Russia is not without risk. This week’s events have highlighted the scale of those potential risks for the UK and western Europe as a whole.” Last year, the government approved Centrica’s plan to shut the 32-year-old facility, arguing that the country had plentiful supplies from a number of alternative sources. However, industry insiders believe the decision was misguided. Rough was “an insurance policy — a bit of additional security” against a surge in gas costs, according to Foster. “Rough would store gas in the summer, when it was arguably at a cheaper price, and in the winter, when the demand was higher, they would take the gas from storage into the grid. So it smoothed out prices for consumers,” he added.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/03/17/government-scrutinises-energy-security-amid-russia-tensions .................................................... Government officials are undertaking a rash of reviews into energy security as political tensions between Russia and the UK continue to escalate. For the first time, the Government’s official quarterly energy report at the end of the month will lay bare the UK’s reliance on Russia for winter gas.

Setanta - the 2 possible outcomes you mention are pretty obvious to us here but relevant nonetheless. This is pretty much where we find ourselves with Infa right now and like yourself I agree the latter scenario is more likely to happen. I would imagine that Yellow Jersey will begin with PR here only once we get a material update on possible funding along with confirmation of commencement of the FEED. I can't see any PR before this so we continue with the news vacuum. The lack of dialogue with the bod and it's shareholders I agree is very disappointing but at the same time probably unavoidable until such time they are in a position to release an update. Should Infa finally succeed with commencing the FEED this I hope will change. However due to timescales involved time is against them to deliver on this part one way or another. Setanta I am also of the opinion this is too important to fail - the need for this project to be developed is even greater now than ever due to the increased UK vulnerability to supply shocks, inadequate storage having reduced even further, increased volatility, increasing demand for gas along with potential for extreme weather as we've witnessed. Hopefully Infa will be seen from a political point of view as part of a solution to the perfect storm that is brewing and likely to repeat each and every winter until substantial investment to bolster security of supply for gas in the UK happens.

UK Money News UK GAS-Day-ahead price jumps as freezing temperatures return Fri, 16th Mar 2018 10:16 LONDON, March 16 (Reuters) - british wholesale gas for day-ahead delivery jumped on Friday as freezing temperatures is forecast return over the weekend and as cold weather is expected to last longer than previously thought. * Day-ahead gas jumped 6.50 pence, or 10 percent, to 71.00 pence per therm. It had risen over 20 percent in earlier trading. The rise follows Thursday's spike of almost 10 percent. Temperatures across Britain will drop below zero over the weekend and on Monday average at just 1.1 degrees. * "The underlying story of low storage levels and a lack of significant supply flex is keeping everything more volatile, with any potential outage or cold spell causing people to over react pretty quickly," a market source said. * The British market is expected to be oversupplied on Friday by 5.3 mcm, with demand forecast at 297.2 mcm and flows expected at 302.5 mcm/day, according to National Grid data. * "The cold snap expected over the weekend is more and more likely to turn into prolonged cold weather extending until the end of March," Thomson Reuters gas analyst Katarzyna Piaskowska said in a daily note. * "A risk of any larger UK Continental Shelf or Norwegian flows outage together with significantly low medium-range storage and liquefied natural gas stock levels is still a major bullish factor," she said, adding the risks were similar for north west Europe.

I would hardly call being invested in Infa and posting comments along with relevant links as a bit of fun and I'm sure the bod wouldn't share your view either while they are going about the serious business of securing the future for this project. Petelutton - I take it you have sold up fair enough -we shall soon find out if the whole project has been just a load of hype and hot air OR whether the milestone news to get this project finally moving is about to materialise. My money is on the latter hence why I'm still invested - there is certainly no fun sitting on a paper loss either but we all pays our money and takes our choice.

Nazareme - so you come on to this board to tell us that more jobs lost in a big firm?? So what does the closure of Toys R Us resulting in the loss of 3,000 jobs have to do with us?? I mean really??!! I have nothing but sympathy for those now out of work but Nazareme you really are clutching at straws here along with your claim that we need just renewable energy and not gas anymore! We need both and further substantial investment required in both areas to meet present and future energy demands! How you actually believe we can just be rid of gas as a vital source of energy is quite frankly bonkers unless you want everyone to live in the dark while slowly freezing to death! I also have sympathy for investor's here currently sitting on a loss whether big or small but I was never under any illusion that this project was instantly going to come to fruition the minute the new bod took over. The perceived lack of action by the previous bod to deliver here will still be in the back of investor's minds which is reflected in the SP performance over the last few years from around £1 a share in 2010.to 0.27p now. Dilution, lack of news, lack of progress by the old bod and the warning signs on lack of gas security being dismissed by the govt have all contributed. However unless you've had your head buried in sand for the last few month's recent events have exposed yet again the UK's vulnerability to supply shocks and huge price volatility that follows. This is without the recent deterioration in Russian/UK relations following the incident in Salisbury. Although it's unlikely Russia would actually stop supplying gas to the EU the fact the EU and to a degree the UK relies on Russian gas is a great concern. With another cold spell predicted and gas storage stocks last week at historic lows we were literally only 2 days away from depleting all gas from storage. Even without another cold spell gas storage facilities will continue to boost gas demand between now and June due to the constant injection now required to replenish stocks. This is a long term play as any gas storage project's are often complex and time consuming from design to development. There are always a number of economic and political factors in play with a big project such as this and imo absolutely no way a project so vital to the security of supply is going to be allowed to fail. Personally I believe that anyone who bought in at around 1p or less still stand to do well here especially if we got confirmation of funding having been secured and the FEED commenced. Great risk/reward now at current levels.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/mar/13/extreme-winter-weather-becoming-more-common-as-arctic-warms-study-finds ................... The sort of severe winter weather that has rattled parts of the US and UK is becoming more common as the Arctic warms, with scientists finding a strong link between high temperatures near the pole and unusually heavy snowfall and frigid weather further south. A sharp increase in temperatures across the Arctic since the early 1990s has coincided with an uptick in abnormally cold snaps in winter, particularly in the eastern US, according to new research that analyzed temperature data from 1950 onwards. Extreme cold winter weather is up to four times more likely when temperatures in the Arctic are unusually high, the study found. Researchers compared daily temperatures from across the Arctic region with something called the accumulated winter season severity index, which grades winter weather based on temperature, snow fall and snow depth, across 12 US cities.

European natural gas markets face stress test from new cold snap London (Platts)--13 Mar 2018 818 am EDT/1218 GMT A second significant period of late winter cold weather set to engulf northwestern Europe at the end of this week is again likely to test gas markets across the continent already reeling from the impact of an earlier cold snap that saw temperatures plunge, demand soar and prices reach record highs at the end of February. Gas prices already spiking ahead of latest cold front Storage stocks in NW Europe slide to just 7.1 Bcm NW European demand set for jump at weekend A cold easterly weather system is set to take hold across the region from March 17 for around a week, according to forecasts, with temperatures set to dip to as much as 6 degrees Celsius below seasonal averages. Gas storage stocks in northwest Europe -- already at seven-year lows following the visit of the "Beast from the East" in late February/early March -- are at dangerously low levels, with withdrawal rates severely constrained by the lack of inventory. The Weather Company in a tweet Monday said weather in the region would turn colder from the coming weekend "as high pressure anchors over Scandinavia." Storage levels, demand forecast The biggest possible risk to the northwest European market is how low storage stocks have already fallen. NWE natural gas storage at seven-year low According to Platts estimates, combined inventories across Germany, the UK, France, the Netherlands and Belgium totaled 7.1 Bcm as of the start of Monday's gas day. The bulk was in Germany -- some 4.3 billion cu m -- while the UK's medium-range stocks are down to just 0.4 Bcm. NWE natural gas storage stocks, capacity Mar 12 Combined stocks were last as low in mid-March 2011 following the record cold 2010/2011 winter, which included the UK's coldest December since records began.

https://www.icis.com/resources/news/2018/03/12/10201712/fears-of-a-second-wave-of-siberian-cold-hike-uk-gas-power ........................................ Updated: Fears of a second wave of Siberian cold hike UK gas, power 12 March 2018 17:30 Source:ICIS The below article was updated to include UK power market comment and data. Forecasts of a second blast of cold air from Siberia drove British natural gas prices over 50% higher on Monday morning compared to Friday’s close, brokered deals seen by ICIS showed. Prompt power prices followed suit, as the Day-ahead Baseload traded as high as 36% above its equivalent in Friday’s session. Gains filtered down the curve as far out as the two forward seasons but one source suggested the front summer product on both gas and power markets held “more than enough premium” based on expectations of gas storage injection demand. “Beast from the East reappearance looks to be a lock. Another significant cold wave and delay of spring likely for the European nations,” Michael Ventrice, a meteorologist at forecaster WSI said on Monday. There is still a degree of uncertainty in the cold outlook, but models are in close alignment that there will be significant downturn in temperatures going into the week starting 19 March, until the end of the month. Temperatures are unlikely to reach the absolute lows of the cold wave that hit Europe at the end of February, driving within-day and day-ahead gas prices to all-time highs . But a sustained cold period will still pressure on shippers to draw from already-low stocks. Store wars Stocks in Britain – structurally low due to the cessation of storage operations at the Rough site – have plummeted to their lowest level in almost five years. Just over 250 million cubic metres (mcm) sat in British stores on Sunday.

BritishCeramicConfed @ceramfed 7h Useful piece on BBC Politics Yorks & Lincs discussing importance of gas & highlighting #gasstorage (link: https://goo.gl/zGUVHK) goo.gl/zGUVHK #bbcsp @GMB_union .................. ............................................................................. https://t.co/Vrq2xc1ZN2?amp=1 .............BBC politics show from yesterday (36m37secs - 44m15secs) debating the current gas situation here in the UK.

Utilitywise Insights @UTWinsights Medium-range #gas #storage reserves dropped below 3.5TWh over the weekend (25% of capacity) the lowest level at any time in the last three years ................................................................................. https://mobile.twitter.com/UTWinsights/status/973143397384024064/photo/1 ............................... ............................................................................... Utilitywise Insights @UTWinsights Summer 18 #gas prices have risen to three-year highs in anticipation of heavy injection demand required to rebuild #gas #storage stocks ahead of next winter .............................................................. Utilitywise Insights @UTWinsights April #NBP #gas prices have jumped 8% this morning to three and half year highs as weather forecasts show colder than normal temperatures from next week ...................................................... https://mobile.twitter.com/UTWinsights/status/973143247135657984/photo/1

JR - you need to improve the quality of your posts on here but oh - hang on you can't can you as you don't even seem to exist anymore! As John Reynolds himself would say ....lol just lol

FEED funding hopefully not far away now, way oversold and decent positions being taken here in anticipation. Should hopefully get a material update any day now and this will really fly.

I wonder lol...hope you are well? All to play for here - we await the all important and crucial update on funding to allow the FEED to commence. Nothing else really matters right now and the bod will be focussed on nothing else to get this over the line imo. Everything I have posted here recently proves how critical the development of the project will be for the security of supply of gas in the UK for the next few decades. The overall cost of development of the project will be dwarfed by the money the project will not only make over it's lifetime, but also how much it will reduce price volatility in the market helping to keep gas prices for consumers at an affordable level and also the all important physical level of security Infa will provide.

Still another 9 months of 2018 left - a bit premature JR I wouldn't want to cheat anyone out of the trophy till the year is out...LOL

Utilitywise Insights @UTWinsights The injections required over the upcoming summer to replenish UK and European #gas #storage reserves will support gas demand. As a result of expected higher consumption, April gas prices have risen to three-month highs while the Summer 18 contract is close to its January peak. ........................................................................ https://mobile.twitter.com/UTWinsights/status/972086405924048896/photo/1 .............................. Gas storage levels currently hovering around just 3.8 TWh.