UK gas storage23 Mar 2018 15:51
BANKING AND FINANCIAL NEWS
MARCH 23, 2018 / 2:11 PM / UPDATED 2 HOURS AGO
ANALYSIS-Race to rebuild European gas inventories supports British prices
Reuters Staff
* Plunging winter temperatures drove up demand
* UK gas prices soared to record levels in March
* Refilling must start from April for winter needs
By Nina Chestney and Sabina Zawadzki
LONDON, March 23 (Reuters) - Benchmark British wholesale gas prices will stay elevated for the rest of 2018, as operators across Europe race to replenish inventories that have plunged to their lowest in at least five years.
Prices soared to record highs in March as freezing temperatures lifted gas demand to its highest level since 2010, drawing down stocks across Europe and exacerbating tightness from outages and reduced liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports.
Britain, whose gas prices are a benchmark for other European hubs, relies on reserves to manage its winter demand. It will need to refill at record pace this summer, at a time when European nations are also chasing extra supplies.
Adding to Britain’s headache, what was its largest storage site, Rough, has now closed, removing an extra cushion to meet winter demand that once had capacity to inject gas into the national network for 90 consecutive days if needed.
Northwest European gas storage volumes are expected to start the summer season at about 6 billion cubic metres (bcm), the lowest level since at least 2013, when Thomson Reuters Eikon data for European inventories began and stocks stood at 10 bcm.
“That does not mean that gas prices will spike but it’s unlikely that gas prices will drop - at least for the very beginning of the spring/summer season,” said Giacomo Masato, research analyst at brokerage Marex Spectron.
Unseasonable cold weather in Britain is expected to continue to the end of March, pushing inventories lower still. British stocks now stand at 300 million cubic metres, compared to 1.1 bcm at the same point a year ago.
“If we don’t see injection in April, the lag is going to be so acute going through summer, it has to be a flashing risk for next winter,” Thomson Reuters gas analyst Oliver Sanderson said.
“The impact of acute storage depletion will be felt for some time to come. Lower inventories in June and July could be bullish, lifting the winter 2018 and August price. The European gas system is also acutely sensitive to unplanned outages,” he said.
“There are geopolitical issues, storage is obviously a concern, uncertainty around Groningen, a lack of LNG although this might change and French nuclear is still a concern for me this winter,” said Wayne Bryan, analyst at Alfa Energy.