Member Info for mcadder

Posted by old trout on the i.i bb last night...............

Enjoying this thread with some great contributions leading to ‘group think’, but could I just throw one more thought into the mix? According to this article:https://postanalyst.com/2018/08/08/hedge-funds-now-own-54-of-exxon-mobil-corporation-xom/ 8 three major hedge funds now own a very significant percentage of Exxon’s stock. This will give them ready access to one to one discussions with management.

It therefore occurs to me that one of these funds might be front running the show for Exxon. Doing it that way means that they won’t have to make any filings to the SEC, with the hedge fund just getting a fee for services rendered and a back to back deal to ensure that it’s stake gets transferred to Exxon when key milestones have been met. If so we shouldn’t have to wait long for a revised agreement to be announced.

All in my very humble opinion of course.

Tot

Not true actually - up 8% on a volume of just over 80M so far

Posted by someone on the i.i bb a few hours ago ................

It will all be about the CPR
If a Major confirms 1.5m barrels of oil for Taribani, or more after it’s EWT completion. And what about the Gas?
If a Major want to become a Farmee to capture a sizeable chunk of Taribani (almost regardless of that Farmout deal)
If a US (or BP don’t forget how huge the Brits are in Kura basin) Major wants a significant piece of the Block XII pie and is paying for it.
Then p2 and p1 resources are in the bag.
Ii investors will all want a piece of this Georgia FRR pie.
We will be made!
FRR with one US or Brit Major is MADE!
With two in a jv or taking a slice each on expertise in each area, then we are massively enhanced!!
Forget the sp that we see now. With two of the above in the bag FRR are a £0.8b value company. Give us a confirmed CPR by a US Major and this goes ballistic. End of!
GLAH
#notlongnowtilboom

Mole I believe after 60 days they'll be happy with the fact that the flow rate for T-39 has been stable throughout as a result of excellent pressure requiring hardly any stimulation at a rate of at least 250 bopd. Maybe just maybe because the pressure is so good they may test further with increased choke to see if they can do perhaps 500 bopd on a sustainable basis. Whatever the tests they are doing as we speak the big players obviously like what they see for FRR to announce their involvement especially AFTER 60 days EWT has finished. That itself I find very reassuring.

From WHIreland note on Mon, says it all really! The potential re-rate of the SP as this starts to unfold will be massive. Even Zaza in his recent interview stated that he believed eventually there would be a substantial positive impact on the SP. Maybe the 'eventually' bit will be sooner than we think lol ...........

the moment of truth for Frontera after decades of investment would occur in 2018 and 2019; v) the improving sector backdrop. So in short, we are not surprised that Frontera is one of very few oil companies listed on AIM that has entered discussions with two major oil companies, because the potential of its assets is consistent with what a globally leading oil company would look for to generate meaningful growth, in our opinion. .....................

We believe that having two major companies assessing Frontera’s assets (via formal NDA and data exchange agreements) represents a step-change for Frontera. We anticipate a positive share price reaction to this development.

Our estimate of the fair value of Frontera remains under review pending the ongoing well tests.

Things must be looking up here no JohnnyBdim on here tonight he must have got his buy in price lol .... can see this back into the .4s by tomorrow afternoon gla

Good post on i.i earlier today .....................
HPC - I think it’s fair to say conventional company valuations are out the window following the last RNS where farmout discussions are taking place with two Industry Majors. Just as a refresher, according to WHI, just three zones on Taribani are worth $484m and that just for Eldari A formations. Now, we have added Eldari B via T39/Zone19, but on top of that, there are multiple zones down to 5,000mtrs. Plus the deeper they go, the better the pressure and more natural flows. So, what valuation for all that? This is a proven field/Basin with at least 1bn barrels of oil in place in Taribani. NS&A CPR say 15% recovery but that CPR is atleast 5-8 years old [cant remember].

Also, we now know that Majors are ‘hands on’ and are directing FRR on the current testing program [well, that is the reason given for not announcing flow rates yet!]. So, is it fair to assume that a deal is closer than further away? I think so. Plus with this proactive operational involvement, the risk of “walking away” looks low. I don’t think it was coincidence that Exxon sent a large technical team to Georgia just in April, which would have been after months and months of pouring over the data and drill logs. Also, consider that the gas resource will attract a massive value as the two Industry Majors seems to be focused on separate resources i.e.one on gas the other on oil. A deal on gas of some kind, what value to the S/P that has at least 5.8TCF of recoverable gas just on MK.

Anyway with the success achieved at T39 in to Eldari B, fair to say that the $484m valuation form WHI looks a low but will not say what price. At 10p, we are looking at GPB1.5bn - easily achievable if they can bag the two Industry Majors.

Finally, I do not believe that B12 will be sold lock stock & barrel because FRR will want to recoupe the $300M in cost recovery pool [cant see Majors refunding them!]. So, if they held on to just 10% of the Block, they will slowly claw back all the exploration costs over time - money for nothing as Dire Straits once sang.

Another thought has occurred to me as well....whoever the major players are (Exxon & BP would be nice) it is certainly more than a coincidence that this news lands 2 days after the 60 EWT period for T-39? So they have been given access to the data along with the results up to the 60 day period let's assume and are happy for Zaza to announce this news! So my take on this is that this could develop pretty swiftly and a deal will be done with them and announced at the same time the flow results are released. This way the major players get everything signed sealed and delivered and once this happens would protect them from any competition trying to muscle in before a deal is done if the flow rates were to become known.

The fact we haven't had any PR since Monday's huge announcement tells me that there is a lot more detail potentially that will emerge as to what exactly is going on behind the scenes very soon. I think Zaza is waiting to be able to release more detail not just with regards flow rates but also who the majors are and what their intentions are. If there is that much interest from them and a deal or even a buy out of block 12 were to occur then any talk on debt pales into insignificance. With regards to the flow rates I do believe they will turn out to be better than people's expectations, especially zone 19.

QT I'm not ignoring you this isn't the only bb I've been commenting on tonight....as for what do I base the price on and why so low? A SP target that is 5x the current SP is hardly low and presents a great return here for shareholders. My price is based on the sort of terms the Brazil deal is going to mean for nuog in terms of actual value creation. Most deals even good ones usually come at some cost to a company in order to get the deal through so I'm under no illusion as to the effect it will have on the SP which the market will ultimately dictate and is doing so now in light of no news. 28p would be roughly 2800% higher than current levels which is absolutely not realistic. Perhaps in a few years if nuog go from strength to strength with a few good marginal deals and there isn't too much more dilution then yes 10-15p is certainly achievable.

And another from advfn..........

Hi Fozzer
Started to do some local research which anyone can do with the internet and a telephone. Although I found only one person in every 5 or 6 spoke english and often not very good.Local hotels seem to have had a lot of people from both oil companies and oil service companies this year.I think this is a lot bigger than we have been aware of judging by the number of visitors. my view is that theses two majors are something akin to preferred bidders due to technical expertise as much as finance, with others waiting in the wings now the oil price is going up and the limited number potential large scale fields for majors to develop( this is probably a question for the next meeting) I also think that the majors have for some months been providing technical support as probably too many people around for occasional site visits. I also would expect RNS's to be constructed and agreed by a small committee inc representatives from the majors rather than just frr which is probably as much the reason for no flow rates and indeed we may not get them until after a development licence is agreed with the government. I have also been checking oil and gas jobs in georgia when i looked into archive material there have been a number in our area of georgia including some for an oil company which states 80000 employees worldwide I have yet to check U S and europe for jobs in georgia I find that these ads sometimes give a start date which gives an idea of timescale.
I really do think the scale of this as yet to be realized it is very rare for any small aims oil company to be involved in something of this size. To anybody shorting do some research especially local, You may find it difficult to sleep nights afterwards.

Usual dross on adfvn tonight but a couple of decent posts amongst them........
'For me spending time in management meetings in Georgia and on extended site visits suggests to me the majors are serious. They would have obviously looked at the data/logs extensively and attending meetings and site visits would come afterwards. Tests being extended at their request so Zaza et al thinks they’re serious too and not just wasting their time and money attending meetings and a massive site in Georgia.

Whilst these discussions are at an early stage, they have taken a significant step forward with both interested parties having attended extended site surveys and management meetings. As a result of these discussions and to assist with data analysis, the Company has been conducting extended well tests to better establish production capabilities' ..............

Tickboo,

That's my take also. Exxon (If Exxon are one of the Majors) also felt out the government to see if they can do business with them.

Georgia's European Integration with fair competition practises - TICK

Gas Pipeline infrastructure all in place with strong demand for gas from Europe - TICK

USA high level support for Georgia - TICK

TRUMP government - TICK

SUPER MAJORS recently established and commenced drilling for deep gas in Georgia - TICK

Directors with massive skin in the game now aligned with shareholders - TICK

Shame on me for what? Daring to challenge you? Grow up Seadog - no matter how defensive you get here it doesn't change the fact that there is an apparent lack of progress here. So in the mean time I will be keeping a sense of realism here in terms of how much value the Brazil deal would mean for nuog if they do actually pull it off. We can all put our own valuation on a company based on expected news landing but ultimately the market will dictate the SP so my realistic 4-5p valuation remains. Think what you want seadog....So for daring to challenge you I get called a hypocrite! Lol just lol. Ok then let's wait for this Brazil deal to land and see who is right then but honestly you call conclude what you want about me I really don't care.

Hottrader I think the truth is more sells than buys today (some sells showing as buys again) otherwise we would have gone up. However despite yesterday's and today's drop we're in for a cracking month here

The month of September should see a few good updates here prior to the interims so all to play for. The recent radio silence was finally broken on mon and tbh I don't think we'll have much of a wait in the way of further updates....the sells today and yesterday will be some traders and those just relieved to be making 'a profit' after the long silence and SP erosion over the last 6 months. However that being said Monday's announcement changed everything and I believe we will now start to see further substantial progress during Sept.

Just like some people that like the sound of their own voice enter JohnnyBdim who clearly loves the content of his own posts and the attention he/she craves. 0.35p? 0.40? 0.45? 0.50p? 0.55? Really couldn't care less what this closes at tomorrow and have no interest in traders looking no further than the next 24hrs with the SP - I'm looking at the bigger picture here with regards to where the SP is heading in the next few weeks especially after yesterday's news

JohnnyBdim check out my post...."I'll go for a 0.55p close" .... quite harmless you know LOL

Further WHIreland note issued this afternoon....love this bit!!
Am not a ramper at all I always err on the side of caution but even I am of the opinion this could easily close up another 60%+ tomorrow such is the significance of today's news :)) ...........

So in short, we are not surprised that Frontera is one of very few oil companies listed on AIM that has entered discussions with two major oil companies, because the potential of its assets is consistent with what a globally leading oil company would look for to generate meaningful growth, in our opinion.

Still holding my 5k worth in the hope of something finally happening here however nuog has had more false starts with rises based on speculation that come to nothing than I have had hot dinners! Certain regular posters have ramped nuog to the moon and back while talking about figures of 28p a share. I personally like to try and keep things real here and if I am wrong then that's my bad but I will be sitting on the sidelines here before deciding whether or not to add further. A year ago I can remember those same posters talking about being on the cusp of a marginal field deal then....let's hope we finally get something from Mr Minty to catapult the SP to reflect such a deal. My 4-5p target still stands here as we have to be realistic about the sort of terms an actual deal would mean for nuog. Still this would be a fantastic return and a decent risk reward for the lth's that have waited patiently.

Hi Setanta....yep took a decent position here recently and added more on the drop so have a pretty decent average. Have been here before with FRR but back again as this time I do believe that this time the EWT results will show they have this time delivered. Zaza himself was beaming on recent interview when talking about T-39 so am expecting good commercial flow rates and perhaps an update on the discussions taking place to fully fund the Niko 1 well down to zone 19. As for TW not a lot to say other than the guy's a complete tool. They tried getting the s**t to hit the fan back in April with the arbitration matter. The fact we haven't heard anything more on this since then speaks volumes. Also having been making noises about a placing since May and being proven wrong so far just loses the muppets any credibility they had not that they had much credibility to start with. What they have done is taken full advantage of shorting FRR from the days of the UD-2 disappointment but the signs are that this week quite a number of shorts have been closed. It's clear from certain posters that an aggressive attempt was made by the shorters to bring this below 0.2 however they didn't succeed in doing so. Today is the 60th day of EWT for T-39 the results with the evaluation of the data being carried out along the way. Therefore the hope for next week is an perhaps an update on the flow results, or an update on the funding discussions to the deeper zones for Niko 1, perhaps an update on both?