Member Info for mcadder

"What you can say is if they had run a bigger trial they might have got statistically significant results.

But they didn’t. Maybe they will."

Ndn - out of all the negativity you've posted is this possibly the most positive thing you've said about SNG of late? Bought back in have you? lol

Excellent post Seaboy, really puts the whole situation and latest update into perspective.

"I know from the Faron trial history that they had a trial with IV interferon fail unexpectedly... After a detailed investigation they found out
that the steroids used in the trial stopped their interferon drug working"...

I think we'll have the answers we're waiting for soon and this could still have a happy ending despite the huge SP sell off

This will come good for those prepared to ride it out.

https://www.ig.com/uk/news-and-trade-ideas/synairgen-share-price-collapses-by-92--as-covid-19-trial-fails-220222.amp

3hrs ago IG.com
Charles Archer | Financial Writer , London |
Tuesday 22 February 2022 13:09

Some snippets....

"Synairgen (LON: SNG) shares were of the winners of the covid-19 pandemic, soaring from 5p at the end of 2019 to 247p by August 2020. But after experiencing extreme volatility, the biotech stock fell to 172p last Friday. And then yesterday, disaster struck. The Synairgen share price collapsed by 94% to 13p, as its proprietary covid-19 medication yielded disappointing trial results."

"However, Synairgen shares have now recovered to 26p, as a home-based trial could still yield results."......

"In phase II results, SNG001 cut the odds of a covid-19 patient in hospital developing severe disease by almost 80%. Patients were two to three times more likely to recover to ‘no limitation of activities’ post-disease. And it cut the average hospital stay by a third at a price of only £2,000, making it financially cost-effective for governments to mass-order."......

"CEO Richard Marsden said the failure may have been due to the ‘standard of care which changed substantially between our Phase 2 and Phase 3 trials. This improvement in patient care may have compromised the potential of SNG001 to show a clinical benefit."

"However, there is a glimmer of hope for Synairgen. The trial threw up an ‘encouraging trend in prevention of progression to severe disease and death, which we strongly believe merits further investigation in a platform trial.’ And the company ‘eagerly’ awaits phase II data from a current trial on home-based covid-19 patients, which could still yield a positive result for SNG001.".......

"According to Refinitiv, biotech firms in the US have raised $32.7 billion from launching Initial Public Offerings since the pandemic began. But 83% are now trading below their launch prices. Yet Synairgen still has a cash balance of £25 million. And better trial results could be forthcoming."

Might see 30p later this afternoon

SNG001 most certainly not written off yet even if the market is pricing absolute failure in.

Also, current available cash represents half the current Mcap of the company alone

Certainly no agenda here aj

Definitely some optimism going forwards....

"Synairgen’s chief executive Richard Marsden said that the biotech had observed “an encouraging trend in prevention of progression to severe disease and death, which we strongly believe merits further investigation in a platform trial.”

Specifically, there was a reduction of around 27% in progression to severe disease or death within 35 days of randomisation for SNG001 compared to placebo.

He also said the company is waiting for mid-stage results of the US National Institute of Health’s ACTIV-2 trial testing SNG001 in ambulatory COVID-19 patients at home, as well as a larger ongoing phase 3 trial in that setting, to determine a way forward for the drug."

"Im baffled as to how you find this undervalued"

Sorry if it baffles you personally, it certainly isn't a problem for me - I can clearly see it like many other's so prior to any further developments from the company fair value will be back to 70-80p ish

No matter what views we have on the data going forward what's blatantly obvious is how undervalued this is now.
Let's not forget that only at the end of Jan this was trading at £2 and the afternoon before the RNS £1.72 ish.
I could understand it if the data showed there was no hope at all with SNG001 anymore, with no other options open to the company with no further trials/options available and the company running dangerously low on cash, but this simply isn't the case.
In a normal market I would have expected a 30-40% drop from yesterday's news but 85-90% is utterly bonkers imo. That's why short term there is certainly a valuation gap here that will be filled from the 26p level back to at LEAST 70-80p

"Polygon will not be averaging down anymore than anyone else! They are in a deep mess here and adding further won’t seem a financially prudent option!!"

Thankyou for that so that's 100% from the company is it? LOL

When it comes to director buys that's different as they are required to notify the market immediately upon buying or selling even if it's just £50 worth!

The rules are from when I was a tr1 holder in other companies in the past that you have to notify the market within 3 trading days of crossing the 3% threshold or every 1% above that up or down.
So in theory they could have been loading up yesterday and do the same again today and not have to notify the company to put an RNS out till end of Weds or first thing Thurs.

Nice recovery in play, should never have dropped this low in the first place huge huge over reaction

Despite the disappointment of yesterday's results it certainly didn't justify such a huge drop from the closing price of £1.72p to the close of around 26p.
Expect this to recover somewhat as the dust settles and people buy back in. Should see the gap between 26p to at least 80p area closed at some point....

Jim Sanchez -

Great Post and insight from you regarding your interpretation of the results. All hope is definitely not lost

Polygon Global Partners LLP

36,453,481 (18.1%)

Polar Capital LLP

9,684,099 (4.8%)

If either of them are confirmed to have added yesterday as suggested then it would be excellent news!

"Poly apparently bought 4mill yesterday, its on Guild and doing the rounds on telegram chats"

Would be a very positive signal if confirmed....

Part of updated Research note from Numis yesterday after results - 220p target

"Too early to write off inhaled interferon"

"While the market reaction suggests SNG001 is a write off, we continue to see promise for inhaled interferon in patients that are at higher risk of hospitalisation in an outpatient setting, and patients at highest risk of severe disease and death after admission to hospital. We do not think SNG001 has been adequately trialled on these highest risk groups to date. SNG001's 41% relative risk reduction in death on top of Deaxmethasone is potentially the best data against Covid-19 mortality so far, and is a key justification for our 220p TP and buy rating".......

Don't listen to those that say they've sold out and are wanting you to basically do the same thing in the hope this drops further just so they can make themselves feel better.
Yesterday was a tough day but there is excellent upside down here for those willing to ride it out, and yes my username mcadder is from the blackadder days lol :))

"no idea where the low is here but I doubt it is here."

The low has already been and gone - 10-15p for literally minutes during which time it was pretty much impossible to get a quote to buy at that price before it headed back up.

They clearly sold out today and can't bear the possibility that this may recover over the coming days. Best to just ignore and not give them ammunition.