Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Kenco, Count TC
That would also be my preferred option, but how often do we get exactly what we want?
Why would Newcrest take only a bite of the apple if they could have the whole thing. IMHO I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see an offer in the region of 22p to 27p for the lot, and I believe at the price they would get it. Did you see the film Brassed Off? Well BBs like this remind me of the union meeting in that film where the miners were told that the employer was offering enhanced redundancy payments. They all started jeering and saying 5bey would never sell out, but when it came to the secret ballot 5bey voted 2-1 to take the money. Greed and cash will out.
However I hope that doesn’t happen, because a buyout of Hav and moving on to our other target SHOULD prove better for us. I say SHOULD, because until exploration is completed there is no guarantee of anything commercially mineable in Scally, Goliath etc. Let’s just wait and see.
However, I’m hanging in until the end, whatever that might be. What is crucial between now and any offer is sticky fingers. It’s the only way to protect the share price, and give a better baseline for negotiations.
AT B
Max
Newcrest do no to seem to goin for joint mining ventures in Oz. They do have, just the one I believe at Red Chris in BC. The reason for that appears to be a new jurisdiction for them?
It seems most unlikely to me that they will want to take Greatland any further than they have to, but it is a fine balancing act as to when they make an offer. I think most people here seem to think it will be when the MRE is completed and there is at least some firm idea of the initial amount of resource we are talking about.
But if the grades on Wednesday night are truly outstanding in quality and volume, then perhaps they might want to do some sort of deal. Not sure how they’d sell that to their shareholders, but who knows?
So, what happens in the vast majority of take overs? It seems that in most cases shareholders are offered a 50% premium at most. I think that’s the starting point if a deal is to be done, the wrangling then will be around any additional amount to recognise the amount of resource. I don’t think that additional premium will reflect anything like the figures some people are quoting here, and this is why.
Newcrest will want to pay as little as they can, their shareholders will expect that.. I suspect a lot of private discussions have already taken place between SB and GH.
Newcrest will desperate to get Gervaise backing for any offer, but it will not ultimately be his decision, that will be taken by us, the shareholders, with or without his backing.
My personal hope is that their offer is not enough and a counter bid comes along from Rio. A bidding war would be a dream for GGP.
Our part in getting the best price is to ensure that 5be SP does not drop, we must keep hold of our stock. If I am right and we get a reface that holds around 14p we could expect any baseline for an offer to be 21p. Whatever we get on top is anyone’s guess. If there is a bidding war all the better.
There is a danger that if no agreement can be struck between the GGP and NC, NC then go direct to shareholders with whatever they think is reasonable. If there was then no counter bid from another player it would be up to shareholders to accept or reject the offer.
In the example above, NC might try an offer of 21 / 22p. My guess is that whatever is said on this board, that offer would be accepted. Ultimately it won’t be what’s in the ground that determines what we get, that will be up to us. My betting is 22p would be accepted. Do we think that’s a fair price? I doubt it, but we will only get what the majority will accept.
I’m not selling a bean, my view is it’s best to wait for an offer, whether it’s just for Hav or the whole thing, and hope that there is a bidding war because that in my view is the only way we close to true value. But we do need to hang on to our shares in order to keep the SP and baseline for an offer as high as possible.
Quite happy to have your views, but please be gentle. :-)))
ATVB
Max
Schlemiel
Thanks for the link to Reddirts posts, just been through them all, even though I read them before, they are very informative and reassuring. I’d recommend anyone to go through these again.
ATB Max
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/reddirt/
I found these 3 short videos really helpful in getting my head around how this complex valuation is done. There are some important messages here for all of us. One of the most important messages I took from this is “ it’s not the quantity of gold in the ground that is the most important issue, but the quality”. Hopefully that bodes well for GGP and Havieron.
Apologies if this has been posted before.
ATB
Max
https://youtu.be/2GdHhEBoen8
https://youtu.be/MTCgfVSo6jA
https://youtu.be/RxV2kAd6zIw
Dodge
There was definitely mention of a 20p party, which in proportion is about the same thing. The point is, it is dangerous to get too carried away. That’s when people become over committed and take risks that they cannot afford.
I’m happy here, and very positive about the probability of a positive outcome, but I know better than to count my chickens prematurely.
Of course I am sure Speedy was wishing all the best of luck with their investment here, and so do I.
ATB
Max
Fast jet.
I felt a shudder go down my spine when you mentioned “ the £1 party”. There has been some of that kind of talk here from time to time. I was lucky and got out of that debacle with a small but still significant loss.
Things here are very different. GGP has no debt, and does not currently need to incur any. As folk keep sa, whatever gold there is down there isn’t going anywhere.
All indications from Newcrest and GGP have been nothing but positive. The drill cores have put some evidential flesh on the bones. IMO next weeks update is absolutely critical, and probably the most important one that we will get before MRE, in Q3 or Q4. There is no such thing as “a sure thing” in this game, but the risk is being mitigated at every stage.
ATB
Max
Hi Yuri
Thank you for your input.
Really what you are asking us to accept is that the figures used by Mining Maven in the article funded by GGP, who presumably supplied some of the key information, is in fact totally out of the ball park by a huge factor, and that your assumptions and calculations are correct?
If that article had been so far off the mark, wouldn’t we have expected some comment from other industry experts, or even Newcrest.
As I said thanks for the input, I hope you find your opportunity elsewhere, I guess we won’t be hearing further from you.
ATB
Max
IPad
Just holding, (not sold a single share) and watching the antics of some of the new “investors” who appeared today. To be frank some of them are just imbeciles, who clearly know nothing about GGP , or prospecting. Many “butterflies” that just float from flower to flower, no understanding, no patience, who would probably just as successful if they were on Bet 365. We know AIM is Casino, and what is needed to “win” is an edge.
It has been another great day here. Despite a lot of profit taking the SP has held up really well, which gives a good indicator for the time between now and 29/ 30th.It’s only Tuesday and we are still 18.75% up! However, I don’t care if there is a dip. I’ve done my due diligence and our “edge” here is being invested in an extremely well led company that all indications today seem to show has probably made a gold discovery of very significant proportion.
As many have said, those LTH who know, are just sitting back and enjoying the ride.
Personally I’ve never felt more confident in an investment. This is about as derisked as it gets, at the stage of exploration that we are at.
ATB to all LTH
Max
Archways
I agree JE and JR are one and the same. As soon as JR stopped posting here JE appeared. His ramping and writing style are almost identical! As far IBAB is concerned, I don’t think he is connected to Arnie. He could spell and string a grammatical sentence together which Arnie clearly struggles to do. I don’t ever remember IBAB being as unpleasant and abusive as Arnie, he didn’t go in for personal attacks. In fact if some of us had listened to him, regardless of his own agenda, we would have saved a good deal of money.
Anyway on to the future. This board is largely good humoured, with plenty of great information. I just avoid the mad conspiracy theorists and blatant rampers, but they are very easy to spot.
Good luck to all casualties of SXX, and all other LTIs in GGP.
I was just checking the POG, and it got me thinking about some of the posts here about what price is used in calculating any deal.
Obviously we would want to use the spot price in the increasing market that we have now, but if you are on the buying side there is an argument for using something like the average price in the previous 12 months, which would also work out better for the seller in a falling gold market. Or is it just a matter of negotiation between the parties?
Is there an answer to this?
ATB
Max
Hi Sharky
Been looking at that weekly chart again and the incredible push up since the Pin bar. When you look at it now it is classic price action. A firm 28% push up in the week following, that bar, then a pause and then another firm push up last week. Last weeks bar closed at the highest price GGP has seen on the weekly chart.
If I was looking at this purely on price action, I would say there is a strong indicator for a further rise in the next couple of weeks. It will be interesting to see if there is another pause this week or if we continue to push northwards.
I always remember the saying “the trend is your friend, until the end”. Unless we have something inn the fundamentals that forces price down, my money is on this trend continuing.
Anyway, that’s my view. Have you read “Martin Pring on Price Patterns”? It’s a brilliant book for anyone interested in learning more about this stuff, I’ve included a link:
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Pring-Price-Patterns-Definitive-Intrepretation-ebook/dp/B009YXC6TM/ref=nodl_
ATB
Max
I have had a rule since I joined LSE not to filter anyone. However I’m not prepared to carry on listening to the spiteful vile from Jimiam, or the reckless and deranged posting of ValleyCommando. Some of us are under lockdown with underlying health conditions, to say nothing of the brave frontline workers. People like VC are a danger to us all.
Congratulations to both of you. I never thought I’d filter anyone.
Paddy, please don’t take any of his comments to heart. The vast majority of us really appreciate your informed and balanced research. Keep up the good work.
All the very best to the rest of you. Stay at home and stay safe.
Max
All the very best
Arnie
I have also given some thought to how things may change. I think that this level of event may also lead to people reassessing what is important in life, how they want to live and work. Perhaps those who can will leave large cities that have been hardest hit by the virus. Some employers may see the advantages of staff working from home.
Interesting as well as worrying times. I’m sure there will be many social, political and economic changes that we haven’t considered.
Let’s just hope that there isn’t a total world financial meltdown, under which circumstances the only things of value would be food, shelter etc, the basics to sustain life. Gold would have no value whatsoever, but that really is a step too far perhaps :-))))).
ATB everyone
Max
Apple, people who minimise the seriousness of this situation are a danger to us all.
I wasn’t going to post this, but it is something sent to me by my daughter this morning. While we are all consumed by what’s happening now, this article gives a pointer to what may happen in the longer term.
It is not some weird conspiracy theory from an anonymous source. This is an article from Technology Review, which is published MIT ( Massachusetts Institute of Technology).
MIT is widely considered to be one of the best (if not the best) universities on the planet. I have fact checked it and it is genuine.
I’d be interested to hear what we feel the potential knock on might be for GGP and the wider financial system.
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615370/coronavirus-pandemic-social-distancing-18-months/