George Frangeskides, Chairman at ALBA, explains why the Pilbara Lithium option ‘was too good to miss’. Watch the video here.
Very good, especially the encouraging analysis. I also have a large part of my portfolio in intex resources, and this stock is really jumping now. Looks like its gonna be one big celebration weekend. Cheers!
(cont) 3) In the benchmarking study, I took advantage of the existence of a listed Canadian company that also operates in Mindoro nickel with similar projects, Mindoro Resources Ltd. This is developing a nickel project with the same characteristics and requirements for Intex Resources and the company has the same challenges. The company has a large nickel project, Agata where it recently completed a technical study and how the planned development. Resources Agata (from announcement): 21.25 * 1.21% = 0.257125 million tonnes Ni. Intex Resources Mindoroprosjekt (from the announcement - see link above): 315 * 0.83% = 2.6145 million tonnes of Ni. Factor Intex Mindoro / Mindoro Resources = 10.168 Assuming roughly the same value on other project portfolio and about the same level of by-products. Value Mindoro Resources (based on last traded U.S.): 226520486 * 5.8 * 0.23 = 302,178,328 Implied value of Intex Resources based on Mindoro Resources value ratios and nickel reserves: (302,178,328 * 10.168) / 91,670,000 = 33.52 NOK / share In addition, increase in value resulting from: - Cash and cash equivalents Intex is extremely large percentage of current price - Increase in nickel price since the sale - Intex has come much further in the process and have completed a technical / economic viability study, while this lack of Mindoro. - Even with only a fraction of the resources and high capex plans Mindoro development. It is highly uncertain whether they can develop as they have not yet carried out technical and increase the study yet, and that resources are much smaller than the Intex resources. - Intex has received notice of bid from Severstal with the seal of the means. Documentation: http://nickelinvestingnews.com/1619-mindoro-resources-ltd-agata-nickel-scoping-study-indicates-low-cost-project-potential.html http://www.mindoro.com/s/Financials.asp http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=MIO.V
Detailed analysis: 1) The transaction method I have used the transaction in a similar type projects and used this as a starting point to put the value of Intex Resources project. This is particularly relevant when Intex also wants to sell its main project, nickel project in Mindoro. In August 2010 sold state-owned Korea Resources 5% stake in Ambatovy nickel project to three Korean companies for $ 140 million, roughly 810 million. The buyers were Samsung C & T, Hyundai Hevay Industries and Hyundai Corp.. The project is very comparable to Intex Mindoro project both in terms of production, capex, political uncertainty, etc. Value 100% of the project = 810 / 0.05 = 16,200 Million enough. Implied value of Intex Resources based on this sale `: 16,200 / 91.67 = £ 177 per share. In addition, increase in value resulting from: - Cash and cash equivalents - Increase in nickel price since the sale - Value of Intex's other projects in the project portfolio Note also that this transaction the project was carried out with bank financing (see link). Documentation: http://www.mining-journal.com/finance/hyundai,-samsung-buy-into-ambatovy-nickel mine http://www.eib.org/projects/news/ambatovy-nickel-project-madagascar-topical-brief.htm 2) Aker Solutions study I based myself on the notification dated 14.5.1910, for example: The conclusion of the Feasibility Study (DFS) is that the Mindoro Nickel can be a great low-cost producer for several decades, a central location in Southeast Asia. o The results show an internal rate of return of 23.6 percent and a net present value (10 percent) of U.S. $ 2.3 billion with a cash cost after deductions for income from the sale of by-products of $ 0.56 per pound nickel metal, based on a long term nickel price of U.S. $ 8.25 per pound Implied value of Intex Resources based on this sale: (2300 * 5.8) / 91.67 = 146 € / share. In addition, increase in value resulting from: - Cash and cash equivalents - Increase in nickel price since the sale - Value of Intex's other projects in the project portfolio - Use of 10% NPV diskonteringskrav risikodiskontering is unreasonably high in relation to industry risk Documentation: http://hopey.netfonds.no/release.php?id=20100514.OBI.52
Thanks, but I still do not quite understand why these are traded so differently. The quality of the nickel is apperantly of very good quality, the netback is very very low , given the high level of the other minerals. In addition, the phillipines has just changed government which favours foreign investments strongly and gives permits and ECC, not like the situation you refer to below. I found this valuation analysis on the web (translated via google). Maybe its worth looking into? VALUATION ANALYSIS OF INTEX RESOURCES I have conducted a basic valuation of Intex Resources based on three different methods: Transaction method, NPV analysis and benchmarking. The results are as follows (see detailed analysis below): 1) Transaction Method: 177 NOK / share 2) Aker Solution Study (Internal NPV analysis): 146 NOK / share 3) Benchmarking with other listed companies in the same place and same industry: 34 € / share This provides a range of valuation methods. In case 3) there are many upsides when comparing Intex with a company that is much more immature in the process, no buying interest from Severstal, not the same cash balance etc, but the point is to show a minimum worst case scenario. From this I conclude that the value of Intex Resources provided the sale of the company is approximately NOK 100 per share, with a minimum price of 50 NOK per share. I hope this may help to highlight the enormous value of the company to use for our investors in the ongoing takeover process initiated by Severstal. At the same time I think it might be useful to be prepared for other players intreden considering the large purchases of CDV, etc. from an undisclosed buyer. Assuming the analysis generally NOK / USD = 5.8.
Severstal just acquired over 20% of Intex Resources, a Norwegian company with great resources of nickel in the Mindoro the Phillipines and has launched an intention to acquire the rest of the company shares. They look to acquire the company at a fraction of its value, which is great for severstal if it comes through. Can be a very good opportunity for severstal investors.
I have compared this company with Intex Resources (ITX.OL) and I do not understand why the valuation based on resources are so different. I urge everyone interested in nickel projects also to take a look at Intex Resources ASA (ITX.OL) of Norway. They hold a large Nickel production licence in Mindoro, the Phillipines with a huge resource estimate (as far as I recall 300 mill ton at 1% nickel). The company has recently received substantial interest, including Severstal of Russia has acquired over 20% of the company and made an intention to acquire the whole company. In addition the company has a very large cash holding, of a substantial portion of the share price, without notable debt. Still the company trades at multiples far from industry averages. Great opportunity? Anyone that know the company? For further information see www.intexresources.com