Member Info for Max111

I'm looking forward to their reply and updating their valuation and updating the market!

@smiller, the £8/t is just an ave Mkt Cap per attributable tonne of iron of junior companies that own iron projects in Western Australia.

Eg Hopscotch did a valuation based on Fenix earlier this week:
"Fenix's MCap approx £76M for their 8MT of DSO (or £9.5M per MT)."

Then just need to discount with an aggressive 60% discount factor (not 80% as they had done in their first valuation).

Then use the correct high-case tonnage of 245M tonnes.

And not to discount it by a further 50% to get 50% Fe since as you rightly say it was already accounted for a grade range of 50-63% Fe (as per page 28 of company presentation).

@HH, we currently have a 51% interest in Hamersley. So need to discount 49%.

But as soon as the 90% deal is finalised, that needs to be amended also.

They are valuing based on ave Mkt Cap of other juniors in WA, not price per ton of iron. Ie £8/t (which they said in last Research Note they will increase to due increase in Iron Ore Price).

Also they should have used an aggressive 60% discount factor, not a super aggressive 80%. The stated they used a 60% discount factor in Research Notes 6/5/21 & 20/5/21.

And obviously why put the high-case tonnes at 150M, when it is clearly 245M as stated in page 28 of Company Presentation.

The errors need amending asap.

FYI, I have emailed Barry Gibb & Andrew Thacker (listed as contacts on current Research Note) and UFO, to get it amended.

I will let you know once they respond.

I'm going to email them tomorrow to get it amended.

So TP got the following wrong:
- They used an 80% discount factor, when they thought they had used 60% (as per last Research Note).
- They used 150M tonnes high-case, when they should have used 245M tonnes (which they previously stated we are likely to achieve and maybe exceed).
- They halved our Iron Ore to get 50% Fe, when it was already accounted for a grade range of 50-63%.

I think we need to change brokers!

In TP's valuation it stated, "based on an assumption that a 74mt iron ore deposit at a grade of 50% Fe is discovered".

Wow! That is a great spot smiller. You are right. Our est target tonnes already factors in a grade range of 50-63% Fe.
That's another thing TP got wrong!

Therefore, I make it:

Low case tonnes:
74,000,000 tonnes
x£8/t = £592,000,000
x0.4 (to discount 60%) = £236,800,000
x0.902 (our share) = £213,593,600
/3425M + 200M (shares)
= 5.89p/share.

High case tonnes:
245,000,000
x£8/t = £1,960,000,000
x0.4 (to discount 60%) = £784,000,000
x0.902 (our share) = £707,168,000
/3625M shares = 19.50p/share

Then reduce aggressive discount factor of 60% and also account for the increase in price of Iron Ore and add JV or DSO contractor mining (£100+ profit /tonne) plus add other projects!

Considering a 90.2% stake I am getting the following:

Low case tonnes:
74,000,000 x 0.5 Fe = 37,000,000
x£8/t = £296,000,000
x0.4 (to discount 60%) = £118,400,000
x0.902 (our share) = £106,796,800
/3425M + 200M (shares)
= 3p/share (surprisingly the same price we went to last October when they started discussions with Windfield to increase our interest).

High case tonnes:
245,000,000 x 0.5 Fe = 122,500,000
x£8/t = £980,000,000
x0.4 (to discount 60%) = £392,000,000
x0.902 (our share) = £353,584,000
/3625M shares = 10p/share

TP said they will reduce the aggressive discount factor of 60% and also account for the increase in price of Iron Ore.
In their valuation they are were valuing our Iron Ore in the ground at £1.6/tonne (with a super aggressive 80% discount factor).

When we start selling the DSO and are making £100+ profit per tonne, then the upside is huge.

Plus need to add the other projects to the valuation.

There were far fewer UFO shares in issue back in 2012, but there were also far fewer fiat notes in issue. Ie 40% of all dollars have been printed in the last 12 month and Biden is set to propose a budget totalling $6 trillion in the coming days.
Those notes will soon try to buy real assets.

Strange this morning. MMs drop the price, I can see 1M+ buys going through on ADVFN and I can't get quotes?!

Is anyone getting quotes to buy or sell. I'm getting NT. Might be going through auction?

Hi livestock, the cash was raised last year to budget for 6 maiden drilling programmes plus 3 resource drilling.
Also to pay for the Neuva Andromeda permit and increase our stake in Hamersley to 90% and to have funds to acquire the Elizabeth Hill tailings.
Because of this, it will now minimise future dilution if all goes to plan with the tailings and the Hamersley deal will give us increased flexibility to fund the projects via JV, partial sale or spin off.
We should soon be in an incredibly strong position compared to other explorers.

Then when we get cash in from the DSO, we will be in a position to do buybacks.

Thanks Xataxx. I agree with people clearing their doubts and the deciding on investing or not, but to keep coming on the BB on positive RNS days to sow doubt (when the topic has already been discussed) is another matter.

But anyway, when people deramp without facts, it's a sign we are about to move up.

When the resident deramper myavian praises you, it proves my point. Now just need Chris2 to show his appreciation for starbright.

Let's see how starbright tries to spin our remaining 39 drill hole assay results into a negative! lol

As I keep saying, I agree everyone should ask questions and investigate, but a so called professional should know better.
If he doesn't he should read Dip666's post.

And Starbright states, "I'm not trying to make anyone nervous, and I have no negative agenda regarding UFO." I call BS on that.

So Starbright, let me get this right, the only piece of information you have provided today after all the polava is the exact same link that PaulQ posted on 14 May 2021 11:29, which apparently you did not read and made it clear to everyone today by posting:
“At the risk of stating the obvious, I brought it up today because I was researching background to the RNS released TODAY. I hadn’t previously looked into the ownership of the counterparty to the transaction outlined in the RNS, and was surprised to discover links to our directors. If those links are all in the past, and there are no conflicts of interest then there is no cause for concern.”

I’m sorry I don’t buy it.

You disappeared from the BB for over 2 weeks whilst posting on other BB, but only ever come on to this BB to shoot down a positive RNS.

As PaulQ said, "Starbright is a very subtle deramper that sows doubt."

I know your game.

He states he has multiples of 2M shares, but only comes on the BB when we get a positive RNS to try to turn it into a negative without any proof.

Shareholders discussed this when PaulQ mentioned at least a week ago. It's obvious he read that post from before.