RE: Turner Pope Alien Metals Research Note20 May 2021 11:17
Also Turner Pope keep stating they used an aggressive 60% discount factor on Hamersley, when in actual fact they used a super aggressive 80% discount factor in their calculation!
Plus they didn't use the high-case tonnage they stated of 245M tonnes (which they previously stated might have to be revised upwards). They only used 150M tonnes for the upside valuation.
Therefore, imputing the correct figures gives a valuation for Hamersley of £392M:
245,000,000 x 0.5 Fe = 122,500,000
x£8/t = £980,000,000
x0.4 (to discount 60%) = £392,000,000
x0.90 (our share – 10% Windfield) = £352,800,000
And when they reduce the discount factor from 60% to say 40%, that will give a valuation of Hamersley of £529M
And that is only valuing our Iron Ore at only £4.8/tonne in the ground!!
The calculation needs to reflect the increase in price of Iron Ore from last calculation (34% higher now).
Then when you add a JV, or mining the DSO ourselves, the upside is just incredible!!!