RE: Jigsaw Pieces7 Jun 2021 13:32
Great summary Hopscotch.
Turner Pope are seriously selling us short!
I've emailed them twice to correct the errors in their SOTP valuation:
1. 150M tonnes high-case was used, when should have been 245M tonnes.
2. The Iron Ore was halved to get 50% Fe, when it was already accounted for a grade range of 50-63% Fe (see page 28 of Company Presentation).
3. A super aggressive 80% discount factor was used, when it was stated in Research Note 6/5/21 & 20/5/21 an aggressive 60% discount factor was used.
Therefore the valuation for Hamersley should be:
Downside valuation:
74,000,000 tonnes
x£8/t = £592,000,000
x0.4 (to discount 60%, not 80%) = £236,800,000
x0.51 (UFO share) = £120,768,000 (not 30.2M as stated in SOTP valuation).
= 3.5p/share
Upside valuation:
245,000,000 tonnes (not 150M tonnes)
x£8/t = £1,960,000,000
x0.4 (to discount 60%, not 80%) = £784,000,000
x0.51 (UFO share) = £399,840,000 (not 61.2M as stated in the SOTP valuation).
= 11.67p/share
Then account for an increase to 90% interest!
Then reduced the 60% aggressive discount factor (as they said they would do).
Then adjust for higher iron ore price (as they said they would do).
Still no updated Research Note today from TP. Even though this morning they have emailed out a Research Note for Europa Metals & DeepVerge plc.
Come on Turner Pope!!!!