Member Info for Maverick7

stating the bleeding obvious there Phoebus

That’s when to go in

The reason TLW went up between Dec - Jan last year was due to OPEC rolling through their current production limits for another year. It won’t have the same impact this time around unless they cut deeper.
The main driver now are
1. Carapa (20% chance & hopefully not heavy oil)
2. Uganda farm out - will this ever happen?
3. US China deal - but looks like Chinese will now wait on any impeachment
4. Oil price - can’t see it increasing until US China do a deal
5. TLW has been trading higher around dividend payout but the next one isn’t due until May 2020 if approved at the AGM

So Carapa is key

zebbo - your statement is incorrect - it’s when you buy and when you sell. You plainly haven’t bought, you have missed 33p now, better buy in tomorrow

The ECO RNS, 4th paragraph states that “the complete fluid analysis has not yet been received, .....,however initial results suggests mobile heavy crudes”

So, what other analysis are we waiting for

i wasnt talking about the MM's

to get PIs to sell their shares to the institutions? There are subtle words and sentences in the TLW RNS, they do say the sands are very good, permeability was great and this heavy oil obviously flows very well to the surface

and without Venezuela heavy oil being wiped from the market, there is a market demand for heavy oil

down - i thought you said 125p

IJT - are you sure that the Exxon discoveries is the same type of oil i.e. heavy? I must admit this was always a possibility with us being so close to the heavy oil field of Venezuela.
One point to note is that there is a market for heavy oil in this region with Venezuela production collapsing.
Does this also mean that the deeper cretaceous prospects is where the light oil is?

reckon around 155p will be bottom and then its time to top up

Looks like the market isn't excited with the forthcoming TLW update tomorrow. This is despite the excitement around Guyana and TLW have 60% of potentially a few billion barrels. Hopefully they will get a good deal wrt farm out to a super major or NOC that can develop it.

Pretty much doing the same Monmur, buy around 110p and sell at 140p. A few times doing that is the same as the Share price getting to £3.50 - £4.00.
No doubt at some stage it won’t be so easy to repeat this trading range?

Since the completion of the BKR acquisition the best tactic has been to trade it on scheduled updates. 110p to 140p is the trading range. Even if you only trade part of your holding.
The big money has already been made from the 20p days in terms of multi bagging. If there is another acquisition which is possible then another 75-100%. Worth the risk to trade it in my opinion

yes, oil was down and OPEC saying that they were not looking at increasing current production cuts

i would echo your thoughts PANG. But how long has this taken. Kenya oil was discovered years after Uganda and they have a pilot production and small amount of oil being trucked and sold.

question is does Uganda need TLW, TOT, CNOOC or do TLW, TOT CNOOC need Uganda?

I suspect that TLW & TOT have plenty to get on with elsewhere now, particularly with Guyana looking good

its low because the next lot of drilling isn't until next year, it will be the traders and forward news that will drive this. Need visibility of the drilling schedule and timescales.
CPR may contribute to a spike and maybe new trading range as would any Namibia farm out. Can't see any take out prior to next set of drilling

It would be a mistake and sad to relinquish Namibia now, just as drilling hots up over the next 12 months. BP are hardly replacing reserves, their exploration success has been poor

Further exploration and appraisal success

https://oilnow.gy/featured/extensive-logging-exercise-ongoing-at-ranger-2-well/