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Wilbury - totally agree with second part of your sentence. On the first, am also sitting and waiting...not happily right now...but think the inevitable rise will come way way before production - otherwise I would flip out to something else for a while!
Wilbury - fair enough - and I hope you are pleasantly surprised and don't have to wait that long. Who knows with current market conditions maybe holding a share which you feel won't go up for a couple of years (but maybe believe won't go down - if that's what you mean?), might be sensible? I would have thought if you really believe that no so increase before production there may be better options in the meantime - premium bonds perhaps?
If you mean me then no idea what you're talking about - don't believe I have asked about your or anyone's holding beyond whether they wanted to see an increase or not? All in favour of share price moving up though so best of luck with your air and tubes stuff...I feel I may have entered an alternate universe...
Wilbury - if you truly believe that I assume you've sold up and will come back year after next earliest? I think the share price will move on potential, sentiment and proved potential - or maybe even a corporate action...
Zoros - good post but unclear what the 'peril' is? " IMO - investors will ignore this prospect at their peril. "
If there is a takeover approach we will see what happens - could be great, could be neutral, could be a bit of shame. But from an investors point of view why a peril if ignored?
Starbright - interesting scenarios and of course there are others and many more potential procedural steps that might need to be taken depending on board reaction, whether/how many shares are accumulated before an offer for the remainder Etc. Etc. Etc.
My question would be why you see option C would be most likely. I can understand NCM wanting to buy out GGP stake in Havieron - I find it harder to understand why GGP would sell it - only if the offer was absolutely enormous (seen as significantly better than holding on to the 25/30% of expected future asset/cash flow values) would it be in shareholders' interests to take the cash (to Tildo's question, we would effectively all hold a share of that cash and share price would reflect that - but it would likely track down unless everyone believed the cash would be put to good use e.g., if we had success in another area. Perhaps more likely that a special dividend would be paid - which would drop the share price - and we/the market would make a call on value of the company with whatever cash not paid out + expectations of future performance from the team + remaining assets).
I think a buy out anytime soon is quite unlikely, but if it were to happen I would expect it to be NCM buying the whole of GGP and effectively cracking on with Havieron development whilst putting the rest of GGP into their exploration arm.
I, like others, struggle to see a third party coming in as their ability to optimise their purchase would effectively be at the whim of NCM.
Freddie - I think it's just a reminder that GGP is the junior partner here. That's not a bad thing! I initially felt that GGP had let NCM into the JV too cheaply - have changed my view on that now I better understand the cost and complexity of going from explorer to developer/miner - GGP could never have done it alone and it would have been a shame to have had to flip the whole thing Vs the JV. But it's also a reminder that GGP can only do/say so much around Havieron development - it comes back to my points about better storytelling of their value proposition - I'm sure all the words and info appears in lots of reports and presentations, they just need to 's*x' it up a bit as my old boss used to say!
gg19 - part of the problem they have is that the executive mgmt team is not close (in geographical and timezone terms) to the market they are serving. Obviously Covid has exacerbated that issue, I'm sure in normal times SD would be earning lots of Qantas miles. It's good he's due to be in London in March (though that is subject to change as we've all learnt over the last couple years) but I think they need to put their hand in their pockets to have a representative here in the UK to help manage and professionalise their communications - whether that be an agency or an employee. When an explorer is a $10-50mm minnow it's hard to justify the cost, but at $500mm+ a decent communication budget is a necessity - unless you have some very good in house talent in that area - which I don't think they have.
Star - my view is that the shares are very good value at the moment and my one critique of GGP leadership is telling the story of Havieron's potential. Frankly the mining magazines do a better job and they don't have a vested interest. I appreciate there are limits to what they can say, but whilst the various PowerPoints and interviews have all been very positive - they not especially high quality so, I think, GGP should consider hiring a communications agency to better get the message out.
Coolfree - it has been a painful ride down this year so far, and no one knows what the share price will do between now and updated MRE, or what it will do when that is released - but I can't imagine a situation where I would not be holding until at least then..
Doublehun - painful as current sp dynamic is, it's really not that long to wait in the grand scheme of things - I just hope they can cram a lot into it, then the ongoing growth drilling can be building on a much higher base case level
SD confirmed the MRE update to come in February - shame he wouldn't be drawn on potential magnitude of upgrade! I think that release will have a significant effect on share price/ is the key staging point for us.
One key takeaway for me was from the slide on SE Crescent - SD suggests that the material around the current mine plan is 5gram+, with potentially even better grades going deeper. It's hard to tell directly from the image but suggests the amount of high grade material, that will ultimately be mined just from SE Crescent and below, will be enormous.