Member Info for mattwales

if they do not sell this in a month its falling all the way back to 0.4p

they failed to get an offtake partner in June. How reasonable anyone would buy this without a firesale?

Have money till Jan then a discounted placing is the likelier outcome.

You've only got to look at companies like Prem with wanting to joint venture their massive Zula Lithium project (12 months or so still waiting) or Uru Metals who have now applied for a mining licence after extending Nickel etc drills on their massive nickel project to see things take time.

Plus you have majors who may want to see drills in the wider area insisting EUA prove up the areas in a series of drills. EUA may wish to prove up the asset in those areas, in any case because proving it up will add money to the asset.

I'm not trying to blow anyone's bubble the asset here is proven but so are those 2 companies above.

I'm merely highlighting it could all take a lot longer than expected.

I agree its following iron ore which roared up from $60s/ton in Jan up to its high of just over $120/ton June/July and now is back down in the $80s.

As Vale ramp up I feel we'll follow back down to the 60s/ton levels.

u'll care if iron ore price keeps dipping cos there will be a profits warning here.

I think it'll follow iron ore prices down around 25% since about June.

Places like India their GDP is falling so any excess iron ore production there will be being sent to China lowering prices.

Time to worry is if iron ore hits the $60s.

CEO having to step aside accused of being part of $5.5bn fraud in his former bank (which he denies) will continue to drag on the stock till the outcome imho.

iron ore futures have dipped below $80 too as china inventories rocketing.

another 18 plus million shares coming on 5th too with that warrant exercise. They exercise to sell max any profit.

after such a rise EUA was always going to be pumped then dumped by the crowd.

Also, a wall of holders so underwater they wont sell means any good news this will rise rapidly.

EUA disconnect between there and here is unreal.

However, a series of drill delays etc got us to this point.

As soon as the mining licence is acquired we will see a re-rating.

Any news of a JV alongside that and this will 10 bag easily.

anyone in his right mind would be looking to buy as much in the market before any approach to the BOD, it's what usually happens.

I think Vernon Hill taking this over anytime soon is out due to the 12 month rule he'd have to purchase in at over £9 a share.

if there was any takeover in sight you would see a massive increase in buys before any takeover announcement. The bidders would buy in the market.

Q4 they have to find an additional £8.3125m just to pay the 9.5% coupon and every quarter after that.

They need to raise loan margins and fast to produce any profit at a time when their deposit cost is rising fast (according to last results).

Global economy slowdown. If German GDP figures show recession 14/11 European banks will take a hit.

Its tough out there for banks, one sniff of recession margins will fall off a cliff as the BOE cut interest rates and investors head out the door into cash.

Metro bank itself margins falling, cost of deposits rising squeezing any profit potential which judging by the whole sector will continue into 2020 and 2021.

With the loan value so high u'd expect them to raise loan rates to increase margins which clearly isn't happening. I see that as bad management.

Two positives are low bad debts when major banks like Lloyds are struggling to contain them and book value is so low so potential of takeover.

we haven't even entered recession and major banks are crying increases of bad non performing loans.
results here next week will provide more clarity on things like the above.

branson, of course they can dispose of their loan book but who would buy it at par. they'd be forced to sell it as a discount as what happens with normal disposals from banks.

Right now in a climate where banks such as Lloyds are seeing increasing bad debts I think they'd struggle to offload any assets off at any fair price but thats my opinion.

shorters highlight there are problems with the balance sheet and financial risk of a companies profitability.
It is impossible for them to destroy a company bad management does that.
Everyone is screaming this is like a major bank.

It's akin to Paragon which went through a monumental disaster when they needed cash in an emergency rights issue before doubling in share price over the past 10 years. Metro bank needs cash. if you think raising over £350m to pay out £33 odd million coupon out annually is enough I cant for the life of me understand where your maths is at.

Loans currently outweigh deposits and sure new deposits have come in but the damage of £2bn leaving has been done. One sniff of more trouble and this seriously has the potential of going like Northern rock with depositors running for the exit.

The company can tell you what they like but the facts are they need £33m plus extra profits just to stand still for 2020 results because that 9.5% will be paid irrespective of anything else.

Yes they'll invest the money they recently raised in treasury bonds yada yada but expanding their loan book is going to be extremely problematic without more cash injection here.

I could be very well wrong but I foresee another rights issue within 6 months just for them to expand their loan portfolio alone without any further expansion of branches.

results soon...most people sell on the news of results. if ur serious about buying i'd wait for them. I'd also look at the recent news such as having to find £33m+ interest per year to pay off a £350m coupon.
I've been reading people compare this to Lloyds and Barclays its hilarious more like Paragon.

with all the underhand shenanigans that have happened here they could easily lose their nomad and be forced off AIM. Any hint of investigation and Northland Capital would resign.

It's got so bad that Tom Winnifrith has openly called it a fraud with dodgy accounting and is insolvent and he is usually right than not..