Member Info for mattwales

no its not read the annoucement

30p rights issue at a guess i really cant see it much higher because its rights issue or they're bust, PWC brought in to do an administrators/liquidators role.

this was a profitable company now we find out their accounts are seriously fiddled and they could've been for a while. �30m payment outstanding to HMRC how have they managed that when the last 6 months accounting they made around �12m pre tax?

the only good news to come here is going to be a deeply discounted rights issue otherwise they bust.

in hindsight they should have suspended it when they found the �5m gap, everyone including me assumed that they would have diligently gone through the whole of their accounts. This is now a prime target for all sorts of shenanigants through to Class Action suits

positives: world cup, royal weddings, anticipated great summer, no �10m+ repeat IT spend next year, still have to streamline departments which will lower costs, ability as a merged business to squeeze supplier costs further so EBIDTA is likely to be �70m+ next year negatives: restaurants are closing due to lack of trade which is affecting margins and jan/feb were bad (however, they are for most retailers post xmas),

completely manufactured drop by the MMs to take out �1 stop losses and try and create panic selling so they can pick up a truckload of shares and issue them at much higher prices.

are on a 12 month EBIDTA rolling basis i.e they haven't breached a thing. If EBIDTA is �56m for this period it means they will have to cut net debt �10m within the 12 months timeframe, no big deal even with the revised EBITDA they making �40m a year profit before tax.

i think its just a growth spurt in all honesty, remember they wont repeat the �10.5m IT spend of this year. Once IT is fully implemented they will be able to streamline customer services, buying departments etc into one rather than separate entities across all of these merged businesses cutting jobs/costs. With margins under pressure their buying capacity will enable them to put the squeeze on cutting supplier costs.

even with the reduced EBIDTA figure of �56m its still going to make �40m+ profits for the full year which translates to a P/E of around 5 with the reduced dividend figures touted by city analysts roughly 6% next year. As far as i am aware they still havent streamlined the merged businesses so costs will be lower once thats been completed.

robot I bought in yesterday, I'm being realistic and know I've bought into something that before Thursday was low risk if you think i'm a deramper look what the financial press have to say https://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2018/03/09/12-yielder-conviviality-plc-isnt-the-only-turnaround-stock-i-wouldnt-touch-with-a-bargepole/ Dont get me wrong short term i see it hitting �1.50 or so even if they have to raise a few quid this price is a bargain.

without that first ceo buy the fall could've been greater. i feel the market will wait for the pre close update and/or the results to ascertain what's going on before any chance of rebounding significantly. If they keep the dividend intact it'll rocket but IMHO is priced for no dividends going forward right now as it's gonna be close to their 2.5 max Debt/EBIDTA figure so we may see the company cut all dividends to focus on debt reduction for the next year.

rated this a buy at �3.05 yesterday before the RNS https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/tips-ideas/2018/03/08/conviviality-still-has-room-to-grow/ share magazine update from today https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/news/shares/conviviality-crashes-again-on-accounting-error-and-margin-weakness

worst that could happen here is trading slips and they need a rights issue but even then over time this is a bargain. I expect no dividend or if there is a dividend it will be substantially cut.

Led as soon as I saw the director buy i jumped in, my only worry here was breach of banking covenants but follow the director money.

the MMs would have taken out a load of stop losses out at �1.00 a share and now happy to take this up

the CEO will be wanting to keep her job but she also has all the figures at her disposal. I doubt she bought if she thought banking covenants would be breached.

could be wrong but looks like its gonna slowly drift down than any bounce

breathe, its a discussion board, i repeat i dont have any impact on the market no one posting here does, the market makers control the market based on what newsflow eminates out of the company they chose to rocket it lower not me.

i dont have any impact on the market its a terrible RNS where �12.5m (20% of EBIDTA) has disappeared in 5 weeks since the last update at the half year results and i do believe it has further to fall but only IMHO. Thanks for that knowledge 50glass, if EBIDTA comes in around �50m as suggested by this RNS they breach banking covenants by �25m, i think they'll have to either place/fund a small rights issue.