The 'value valley'...8 Dec 2020 11:21
It is worth watching any of Nick's recent presentations where he does the slide on the 'value valley'...
What this basically means is that, if SOLG had Alpala alone, there is a long gap in time between PFS/DFS and production, during which the SP would tend to drift lower, leaving out external factors such as the copper price or any predatory interest.
Nick is in effect acknowledging that and his strategic approach is to fill the 'value valley' for each of his projects with news, PEA/MRE, PFS/DFS on each prospective new Tier 1.
This is in essence a clever strategy for as long as SOLG remain in control of their own destiny...
A big question will be whether the CFP will be specifically linked to Alpala through ENAMI, or raised through SOLG as a whole...if the latter then the terms achieved may be better because of the 'added value' of the other projects...that allows you to fund each successive project out of the cashflows from the previous one...
But that is a very long timescale for the market and indeed the Ecuador government to swallow, so...
I suspect that one or more of these Tier 1s may be spun off, maybe even IPOd through their own parent company, which opens up the possibility of JV'ing Alpala and getting on with the others...
If you want a very good example of the 'value valley' have a look at ATYM (which I've been in for 5/6 years)...
ATYM received the official permission to start mining at Rio Tinto on 11 April 2014...the SP was 296p...
First commercial production was declared in Feb 2016 but the SP drifted all the way down to 85p by October 2016 before climbing steadily to 250p by July 2018...having been in full production and generating significant cashflows for three years now, the SP is 227p...
Of course different people on here have different strategies and different goals, but if you had the choice, which would you opt for...£1 now or in six years' time...
BTW ATYM has still never paid a dividend...I don' expect this before 2022...
ATB